Week 4 contained two major upsets (Oklahoma and Miami) and several close calls for other Top 25 teams (Clemson, USC, Tennessee, Michigan, Oregon). As a result, betting on underdogs was a highly profitable strategy. Only four Top 25 teams covered the point spread in games against unranked FBS teams.
Against this backdrop of unpredictably, a devastating hurricane is making landfall today in the Southeast. Several Florida schools have already rescheduled their games and more will likely follow. Betting lines, particularly points totals, have also been impacted for the games that remain on the calendar.
For example, the total for the North Carolina-Virginia Tech game is currently set at 51 points. This seems low given that every UNC game this season has totaled at least 63 points. However, heavy rains and wind can slow down even the most potent offense. My advice is to keep a close eye on the weather forecast before making any bets this week.
Since my preview is written early in the week, I have chosen to focus my attention on games that are unlikely to be impacted by the storm.
Virginia Week 5 Forecast
- Virginia +2.5 at Duke. Over 49.
Rain could be a factor in Durham for Virginia’s second ACC game of the season. I might worry that the poor weather conditions could stifle the Cavaliers’ passing game, but frankly, the offense hasn’t needed help slowing itself down. Des Kitchings’ offense currently ranks 115th in scoring and 87th in yards gained per game. Brennan Armstrong ranks 13th in the ACC in total QBR. Dontayvion Wicks has only 17 catches on 48 targets with more drops than any other FBS receiver. In my season preview for Virginia, I suggested that we might see a reversion to the mean from the high-powered offense from 2021. However, the offense has completely cratered through four games.
The silver lining is that the UVA defense has been much improved under new coordinator John Rudzinski. All four opponents have been held to fewer than 25 points this season, which was only accomplished three times in 2021. The Cavaliers will need another stellar defensive performance to contain a Duke offense that averages 461 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.
The key to the Blue Devils’ early season success has been the play of quarterback Riley Leonard, who has completed 71.3% of his passes with only 2 interceptions. Though he is not quite as fleet of foot as Syracuse’s Garrett Shrader, Leonard is still a threat to tuck and scramble from the pocket. Under first-year head coach Mike Elko, Duke’s offense has been incredibly balanced (53% run plays vs. 47% passing plays). This should provide another challenge to the Cavaliers defense to maintain discipline with assignments.
With Virginia’s current lack of offensive execution, it is difficult to predict a high-scoring affair. All four games have gone under the expected point total thus far. Poor weather conditions are unlikely to help either team. I could see this game going either way, but I will give a slight edge to the Cavaliers because of the team’s ability to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Virginia has one of the highest sack rates in the country and has forced more turnovers (9) than it has allowed touchdowns (8). UVA over Duke 21-20.
Week 5 Best Selections
- Season record: 8-10-2. I was a missed two-point conversion away from a winning week (thanks for nothing, Clemson). Sports betting, like football, is a game of inches. Time to get back to even with the slate of games this weekend.
UCLA +3.5 vs. Washington (Friday): Washington is unquestionably the most talented team that UCLA has played this season. The Bruins’ narrow victory over South Alabama in Week 3 did not exactly inspire confidence either. Still, I will take the undefeated home team and the points. UCLA’s defense has allowed only 290 yards per game against FBS competition. Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has played the best football of his career and running back Zach Charbonnet is averaging 6.8 yards per carry.
Michigan State +7.5 at Maryland: This line strikes me as an overreaction to games last weekend. Maryland played well against Michigan, while the Spartans were crushed at home by Minnesota. Despite Michigan State’s poor performances over the last two weeks, I’m inclined to take the points. The Terrapins have lost four straight to Michigan State and are 0-29 against ranked conference competition since joining the Big Ten in 2004. Though MSU is not currently ranked, it highlights Maryland’s lack of success against quality opponents. Additionally, two of the Terps’ top offensive weapons – quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa and wideout Rakim Jarrett – are questionable with injuries sustained against the Wolverines.
Oklahoma State +2.5 at Baylor: The Cowboys will be anxious to avenge their narrow loss in the 2021 Big 12 Championship and are well-rested following a bye week. Quarterback Spencer Sanders has been efficient to start the season, throwing 10 touchdowns and only 1 interception. Though Mike Gundy’s squad has taken a slight step back on the defensive side of the ball, the Pokes are still holding opponents to a 23% conversion rate on third down. As well as Baylor has played thus far, the offensive line has struggled to protect quarterback Blake Shapen. He has been under pressure on 28% of his dropbacks and completed only 41% of his passes on those plays. Look for Oklahoma State to ratchet up defensive pressure early and often.
Iowa State -3 at Kansas: The emergence of Kansas as a 4-0 program is one of the best stories of the college football season. The Jayhawks are averaging 46 points per game, and quarterback Jalon Daniels has completed 71% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and only 1 interception. However, Iowa State’s defense will provide a significant challenge to these impressive statistics. The Cyclone defense has allowed only 16 points per game and has conceded only 2.3 yards per rushing attempt. After an emotional home win in front of the first sellout crowd in years, Kansas is in a clear letdown spot.
Navy at Air Force Over 37.5: One of the surest bets over the last two decades has been the under during matchups between service academies. Over the last 50 contests between Air Force, Navy, and Army, the under is 40-9-1. When two teams use option offenses and minimal pass attempts, there are fewer possessions. However, Air Force’s offense should provide enough firepower to hit the over in this game. The Falcons currently average over 34 points per game and 6.2 yards per rushing attempt. Navy has also been more willing to throw the ball this season compared to previous years; in last week’s surprise win against East Carolina, Midshipmen quarterback Tai Lavatai completed seven passes for 152 yards. Vegas sportsbooks know that betting the under is a common public play, so the line is often artificially low. I will gladly watch this rivalry game and root for offense.
Parlay/Teaser of the Week
- Season record: 1-3
Last week’s money line parlay came up just short with Texas losing in overtime to rival Texas Tech. The Red Raiders needed a furious rally and converted on 6 of 8 fourth down attempts. Losing close is always painful, but at least it was entertaining. This week, we are returning to teasers and reducing the amount that two home teams need to cover.
- Minnesota (-12.5 –> -6) vs. Purdue: The Gophers had one of the most impressive performances of Week 4, destroying Michigan State in East Lansing. With the top ranked third down conversion rate in the country, Minnesota is a legitimate contender in the Big Ten West. Meanwhile, Purdue enters this game with significant injury concerns. Quarterback Aidan O’Connell missed the Boilermakers’ narrow victory over Florida Atlantic and is still questionable to play this week. Purdue’s top defender, Jalen Graham, has missed three games with a tibia fracture. Minnesota is 6-0 against Purdue in Huntington Bank Stadium since it opened in 2009.
- Army (-7.5 –> -1) vs. Georgia State: After close losses to Coastal Carolina and UTSA, the Black Knights were able to capture their first win of the season against Villanova in Week 3. Against the Wildcats, Army rushed 55 times and only attempted one pass. Georgia State has a porous defense, allowing more than 453 yards per game this season. With a bye week to prepare for a winless Panthers program, Jeff Monken should be able to keep positive momentum going.
Random Facts to Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
Raise a glass for the undefeated Kansas Jayhawks, who provided our first cashed bet of the year by meeting the projected win total by Week 3. Lance Leipold has revitalized a Kansas program that was in the Big 12 cellar for more than a decade. Last weekend’s game against Duke was only the second sellout at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in the last 13 years. It was also the first time since October 2009 that Kansas was favored by more than a touchdown against another Power 5 opponent. With the win, the Jayhawks snapped a 12-year streak of winning three games or fewer. Rock Chalk!
SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
