As a Virginia fan, I am discouraged by the current trajectory of a once-promising season. However, as a general fan of college football, I am fascinated by the many storylines that are playing out this weekend.
College Gameday will be making its first ever appearance in Lawrence, Kansas. After an offseason of verbal sparring between Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban, we get a rematch of Alabama’s only regular season loss in 2021. The pageantry (and food) of the Texas State Fair will be on display for the annual Red River Showdown at the Cotton Bowl.
Even though things are not going well for our beloved football team, don’t let a disappointing season to date take away your joy in being a fan of the game. In just a few short weeks, football will be gone again. Embrace every autumn weekend while you still have them on the calendar. Cherish every rivalry, upset, and novelty uniform.
If you need further inspiration on how to make Saturday’s games more meaningful, allow me to offer some sports betting suggestions.
Virginia Week 6 Forecast
- Louisville -3 at Virginia. Over 50.5.
Few results are more humbling to a Virginia football fan than losing to the Blue Devils by three touchdowns. Before Saturday, Duke had previously lost 14 of the last 18 conference games in which it had been favored. Following back-to-back conference losses, the Cavaliers return home to face their primary Atlantic Division rival in Louisville.
It is difficult to know what to expect from the Cardinals at this point in the week. Quarterback Malik Cunningham is currently listed as “day-to-day” with concussion-like symptoms from multiple hits to the head in a losing effort against Boston College. If he can play, he will be the most dangerous person on the field for either team. He leads Louisville in rushing and passing yards and has accounted for 9 of the team’s 13 rushing touchdowns. The offense floundered with back-up quarterback Brock Domann at the helm in the second half against the Eagles. Domann only has 16 career passes under his belt and only 6 completions. In short, Louisville will be much more difficult to stop if Cunningham is active. For his part, Tony Elliott is preparing as though he expects Cunningham to play.
However, the biggest question mark entering the game surrounds the Virginia offense. This statistic, courtesy of Danny Neckel, is the most emblematic of the season’s troubles: the Cavaliers are averaging only 5 points in the first half against FBS competition. Brennan Armstrong has struggled with his accuracy and decision-making; the Cavaliers rank 128th in completion percentage and throw interceptions too frequently (on 2.7% of passes). Relatedly, the offensive line has not been able to protect Armstrong in the pocket. Armstrong has had to throw his passes earlier than anticipated, resulting in a ghastly average of 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Unfortunately, the pass rush is one of Louisville’s primary strengths, sacking opponents on 10.53% of dropbacks. Expect another game of Armstrong under heavy pressure and needing to escape the pocket early.
After closely watching several Louisville games this season, I think there’s an opportunity for both teams to move the ball effectively. If Cunningham plays, we may see the first game of the year go over the projected point total for Virginia. However, I don’t have much confidence in the direction of the team right now. Slow starts and penalties are not a recipe for success. It may take a full offseason of recruiting and coaching to get the program back on track. Cards over Cavs, 31-23.
Week 6 Best Selections
- Season record: 10-13-2. I dipped a little further into the red with a 2-3 week. For this Saturday’s slate of games, I have found value in betting on favorites including several teams that are facing challenging road tests. Now is the perfect time to jump on the SabreBetrics bandwagon!
TCU -6.5 at Kansas: For the second straight week, I am picking against Kansas, undoubtedly the best story in the college football season to date. The Jayhawks escaped with a narrow victory against Iowa State, thanks in large part to three missed field goals from Cyclones kicker Jace Gilbert. Even in the loss, Iowa State provided a template for beating Kansas: stack the box to slow down a talented run game and spy on quarterback Jalon Daniels to keep him in the pocket.
TCU’s offense will be very challenging for Kansas to keep up with. The Horned Frogs have scored at least 38 points in every game this season and put up 55 points in a dominant home victory over Oklahoma last week. Quarterback Max Duggan is completing 74.5% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions. How will Lance Leipold’s program hold up under the bright lights of College Gameday and the weight of expectations for the first time in recent memory?
Tulsa -5.5 at Navy: After an embarrassing opening loss against Delaware, Navy has righted the ship (pun intended) in recent weeks. An upset victory over East Carolina and a narrow loss against a talented Air Force program demonstrate that the Midshipmen have dramatically improved over the course of the last few weeks. However, I still think there is a significant talent disparity in this matchup. Tulsa has played well against Top 25 competition, losing to Cincinnati by 10 points and to Mississippi by 8 points during a road trip to Oxford. Navy is also in a potential letdown spot after losing to one of its primary rivals. This line opened at 4 points and has steadily moved toward Tulsa as the week has progressed. Get your bets in now before it moves further in the direction of the Golden Hurricane.
NC State -3 vs. Florida State: Even though Dave Doeren’s program could not snap Clemson’s FBS-leading 37-game home winning streak, the Wolfpack played admirably in defeat. At several key opportunities in the game, NC State defenders had legitimate chances at interceptions that fell through their fingertips. As talented as quarterback Devin Leary is, I do not expect him to have two consecutive poor performances. Florida State’s defense struggled to contain Wake Forest last Saturday, allowing the Deacs to run 85 offensive plays and accumulate 405 yards. In what promises to be a close game, I give the edge to State playing in front of a rowdy crowd at night.
Tennessee -3 at LSU: After falling behind 17-0 at Auburn, LSU was able to eke out a come-from-behind victory. Though quarterback Jayden Daniels has yet to throw an interception this season, he also was not particularly effective in the passing game against Auburn, completing only 8 of 20 passes for 80 yards. He also sustained an injury late in the game that forced him to sit out LSU’s final drive. If Daniels is limited at all in his ability to escape the pocket, it will impact the Tigers’ chances against a Tennessee offense that is firing on all cylinders. The Volunteers average 48.5 points per game and lead the nation in yards gained. They also have a perfect record in scoring points after entering the red zone. With wins this season against Florida and Pittsburgh, Tennessee should be well-equipped to win in Baton Rouge.
Oregon -13 at Arizona: Oregon may not have the players to contend for a spot in the College Football Playoff, but it still has a clear talent advantage over Arizona. Since the opening week loss against Georgia, Bo Nix has thrown 12 touchdowns and only 1 interception and the Ducks are averaging 50 points per game. This bodes well when playing against an Arizona defense that allows 6 yards per play (101st nationally). Over its last 20 games as a road favorite of 10+ points, Oregon is 14-6 against the spread.
Parlay/Teaser of the Week
- Season record: 1-4
My Week 5 teaser never had a chance as Minnesota and Army both lost outright. Most of my proposed parlays and teasers this year have involved reducing the spread that favorites need to cover. However, since I focused on favorites already, I’ll use this bet to add cushion for underdogs to cover.
- Iowa (+3.5 –> +10) at Illinois: Iowa’s problems on offense are well-documented; the Hawkeyes rank 124th nationally by averaging 262 yards per game. However, Kirk Ferentz’s defense has once again been among the best in college football, allowing fewer than 12 points per game. Illinois depends on running back Chase Brown to serve as the engine for the Illini offense, but he will be challenged facing a front seven that has held opposing rushers to 3 yards per carry. For a game with an over-under of only 36 points, I will take the points and hope that Iowa keeps it close.
- Bowling Green (+2.5 –> +9) vs. Buffalo: Both teams have had topsy-turvy seasons. The Bulls have impressive wins over Miami (OH) and Eastern Michigan, but a home loss to FCS Holy Cross. The Falcons have wins against Marshall and Akron, but also an overtime loss to Eastern Kentucky. It’s not surprising that the line on this game is less than a field goal. However, as the home team with 18 returning starters back from last year, Bowling Green should have the edge here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Falcons win this game outright, but I’ll take the extra points to cushion this bet.
Random Facts to Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
Hell hath no fury like Nick Saban scorned. For many college football fans, this weekend was circled on the calendar after Saban and Jimbo Fisher exchanged unpleasantries regarding Texas A&M’s recruiting practices. Adding fuel to the fire was the fact that Alabama experienced a road defeat in College Station last season. The Crimson Tide are currently favored by 24 points, as oddsmakers expect Saban to take out his frustrations against a beleaguered Aggies squad. There certainly is historical precedence for expecting an Alabama blowout. Since taking over as the head coach in Tuscaloosa, Saban has faced 15 opponents that Alabama lost to in the previous season. The Crimson Tide are 14-1 in these games with an 11-4 record against the spread. On six of these occasions, Alabama was favored by at least 10 points; Saban’s team covered in all six games.
SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
