SabreBetrics: Week 7 CFB Betting Guide – Top 25 Tilts

Even though the Virginia football team has a bye, there is every reason to cancel your plans, ghost your family, and find a comfortable spot on the couch for the duration of the weekend. This year’s “Third Saturday in October” contains some of the best college football games of the season.

There are six different conference matchups involving ranked teams, the most of any weekend thus far. These games will have an outsized impact on conference races, the College Football Playoff, and the winner of the Heisman Trophy. With my preview this week, I’m focusing on these high-profile games to give you all the information you need to responsibly enjoy the best that college football has to offer.

Virginia Week 7 Forecast

Bye Week

Virginia enters its much-needed bye week following a three-game losing streak. A 2-4 record is not where many UVA fans thought the team would be at the halfway point in the season. The Sabre has provided an in-depth look at the underlying issues that have plagued the team in recent weeks, so I won’t restate them here. Instead, let’s explore a few of the betting trends the Cavaliers have followed this year.

  • Virginia is 1-5 against the spread this year with the only victory taking place at Syracuse.
  • Virginia has underachieved relative to its expected against the spread projections by 9.6 points per game.
  • Continuing a trend from last season, most games involving the Cavaliers have gone under the projected point total. Unders are 4-1-1 this year, with the Louisville game as the only over to hit.
  • Let’s hope the extra rest can get Virginia back on track.

Week 7 Best Selections

  • Season record: 13-15-2. Coming off a 3-2 week, I feel I am finally ready for the spotlight. All my selections come from Saturday’s marquee games between Top 25 opponents.

Oklahoma State +4 at TCU: After high-profile victories against Oklahoma and Kansas, I would have expected TCU to be favored by more than four points at home in this game. Perhaps this suggests that computer models like what they have seen from Mike Gundy’s undefeated program. Quarterback Spencer Sanders has thrived during this senior season, accounting for 2,131 yards of total offense and 22 touchdowns. After throwing 12 interceptions a year ago, Sanders has only thrown 2 picks this season. In this battle between two of the nation’s best scoring offenses, I’ll take the points.

Tennessee +7.5 vs. Alabama: College Gameday is back in Knoxville for the most high-profile game of the day. Alabama quarterback Bryce Young sat out last week against Texas A&M with a shoulder injury. The offense did not look the same without him, and the Crimson Tide needed a last-second goal line stop to avoid the upset at home. Young is expected to play on Saturday, but if he is not at 100%, Alabama will be in serious trouble. Tennessee has the nation’s most explosive offense, averaging 548 yards and nearly 47 points per game. In what could have been a look-ahead spot last Saturday against LSU, the Volunteers were laser-focused and dominated the game from start to finish. Betting against Alabama is rarely a winning proposition but given the significant injuries Nick Saban’s team is facing, I like Tennessee with the points at home.

Kentucky +7 vs. Mississippi State: Without Will Levis at quarterback, Kentucky struggled at home in an upset loss to South Carolina. Levis returned to the practice field earlier this week, giving Wildcats fans hope that he will be available against Mississippi State. Regardless of how Levis is feeling, Mark Stoops would be wise to lean on the run game to manage the time of possession and keep Mississippi State’s dangerous offense off the field. The Bulldogs rank 99th nationally in rushing yards allowed per play. Expect a heavy dose of running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. who was the SEC’s leading rusher in 2021.

NC State +3.5 at Syracuse: This is yet another game where the health of a starting quarterback is a major storyline. The Wolfpack’s Devin Leary injured his shoulder against Florida State and is questionable to play against Syracuse. His replacement, graduate transfer Jack Chambers, attempted only one pass in the second half against the Seminoles. Still, he was able to orchestrate a come-from-behind victory thanks to the suffocating NCSU defense. Despite Chambers’ inexperience, Dave Doeren will likely look to throw more frequently against an Orange defense that ranks among the worst in the FBS in completion percentage. Syracuse has improbably managed to stay undefeated despite close calls against Purdue and Virginia. Quarterback questions aside, the Wolfpack have a significant talent advantage throughout the roster.

Utah -3 vs. USC: Through six games, Lincoln Riley has successfully brought the Trojans back to national prominence. USC’s offense, led by Heisman contender Caleb Williams, has been nearly unstoppable, averaging over 40 points and 462 yards per game. Thus far, the high-octane offense has been able to mask mediocre defensive numbers. Though USC has been able to force interceptions at a high rate, the team has trouble stopping the run, allowing 4.6 yards per carry. This is where Utah has thrived this season, carrying the ball more than 39 times per game and averaging just under 5 yards per attempt. Utes quarterback Cameron Rising is an experienced game manager and rarely throws interceptions. Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the toughest venues in the country, and I expect it to provide USC with its toughest test of the season.

Parlay/Teaser of the Week

  • Season record: 1-5

When things aren’t going well in sports betting, one thing you should never do is “chase your losses.” This means that you should not put more money on the line to recoup what you have already lost. However, I am going to make a one-time exception to this rule to try and get my parlays back on track. This week, I am placing a small wager on an “underdog parlay”, hoping that two upsets will occur for a more substantial payout.

  • LSU to win at Florida: The Tigers fumbled the opening kickoff in a home loss against Tennessee and never emotionally recovered. It’s not ideal to play from behind against the nation’s best offensive team. LSU matches up considerably better against a Florida team that has struggled to pass effectively or stop the run. Quarterback Anthony Richardson is coming off a performance against Missouri with only 66 passing yards and an interception. The Gators defense concedes over 203 yards per game on the ground, with opposing backs gaining 5.0 yards per carry.
  • Florida State to win vs. Clemson: The Seminoles return home after back-to-back tough losses against Wake Forest and NC State. Meanwhile, Clemson remains undefeated and has a 50% chance of making the College Football Playoff according to ESPN’s FPI model. Despite this difference in each team’s trajectory, the Tigers opened as a suspiciously short favorite of 4.5 points. The line has continued to move in Florida State’s direction and is now down to 3.5 points. I read this as a sign that professional gamblers are still not sold on Clemson’s offense. I have no football analysis to provide here; to me, Clemson has the team with better players. However, sometimes when a line is fishy, you need to run to the smell.

Random Fact to Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters

Heading into Week 7, 15 FBS programs remain undefeated. However, only one team has successfully covered the spread in every game on the schedule: James Madison. The 5-0 Dukes are defying expectations in their first year since making the leap from the FCS level. The school has overperformed against the spread by an average of 14.5 points per game. Though it is an impressive feat, sportsbooks usually adjust as the season progresses, so you may not be able to find as much value on JMU going forward.

SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and longtime fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.