It would be nearly impossible for this weekend to provide the same level of excitement that we saw last Saturday. Between Tennessee’s last-second win over Alabama, Utah upending USC on a late two-point conversion, and TCU’s come-from-behind overtime win against Oklahoma State, it was a day of high drama and major implications for the remainder of the college football season.
While Week 8 may not have as many high-profile matchups, there are still plenty of interesting conference contests that deserve your attention. After focusing on ranked programs last week, I’m devoting today’s column on finding value outside of Power 5 conferences.
Virginia Week 8 Forecast
Virginia +3 at Georgia Tech, Under 45.5.
Both schools enter this Thursday night game after a weekend off. For Virginia, it was an opportunity to regroup following a three-game losing streak. In contrast, Georgia Tech won its last two games following the midseason firing of head coach Geoff Collins. It was a clear case of “addition by subtraction” as the Yellow Jackets certainly seem to be playing inspired football for interim coach Brent Key.
Georgia Tech’s primary strength is its passing defense. Opponents are averaging only 6.1 yards per attempt and completing just 55.3% percent of passes thrown against the Yellow Jackets’ secondary. This explains why most teams this season have opted to rush the ball against Georgia Tech’s porous front seven. Teams have averaged more than 44 rushing attempts and 193 yards per game. Despite a greater commitment to the run game, Virginia has struggled to effectively move the ball on the ground. However, this will be a necessity if the Cavaliers hope to leave Atlanta with a victory.
Even with significant improvement in recent weeks, Georgia Tech has an anemic offense. The program ranks 127th nationally among FBS schools in both points per game (13.8) and conversion rate on third down (27.9%). Injuries to Nick Jackson and Josh Ahern could be troublesome, but this is still the weakest offense the Cavaliers will see for the remainder of the season. It’s tough to feel too confident about Virginia’s chances based on results to date, but I still believe there is enough talent on the roster to grab the first road victory of the season. Hoos over the Yellow Jackets, 24-20.
Week 8 Best Selections
- Season record: 16-17-2. Another 3-2 week has me just below the coveted .500 mark. I have scoured the schedule and found value in games that would otherwise be off-the-radar for casual fans. Time to put some money down and jump on the bandwagon of these mid-major programs.
- Season record: 1-5
- North Texas at UTSA Under 78 points (teased up from 71.5): This game provides the highest total on the board for Saturday’s games. UTSA plays at a blistering pace, ranking fifth nationally in offensive plays run per game against FBS opponents. North Texas has a productive offense but a suspect defense that allows 36.3 points per game. This is likely to be a high-scoring affair, but so many things must go right to reach a total of 78 points. If the game isn’t competitive throughout, the team in the lead can play at a slower pace to run the clock.
- Cincinnati at SMU Over 53.5 points (teased down from 60): In SMU’s six games, the lowest total score is 58 points. The Mustangs have a high-powered offense that averages nearly 34 points per game and 78 plays from scrimmage. However, SMU’s defense also allows 472 yards per game. Cincinnati’s lowest point total this year is 52 points against Tulsa. I expect this to be a back and forth battle that easily clears 54 points.
Houston -3 at Navy: No team has played in more riveting games this season than the Houston Cougars. Out of six contests, three went to overtime and only one (against Kansas) was decided by more than a touchdown. Though a 3-3 record is nothing to write home about, Dana Holgorsen’s squad has played well against quality opponents, including Texas Tech, Tulane, and UTSA. Though quarterback Clayton Tune has not been as efficient to start the year, he still has a 12 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio and is coming off his best game of the season versus Memphis. With an extra week to prepare for Navy’s option attack, I expect Houston to win a close game but still cover.
Northern Illinois -2.5 at Ohio: NIU is a deceptively talented 2-5 team. Super senior quarterback Rocky Lombardi injured his leg in mid-September and had to sit out for several games. Without Lombardi on the field, the Huskies gave up a halftime lead to Vanderbilt, played a one-score game at ranked Kentucky, and lost an overtime game to Ball State. In his return last weekend against Eastern Michigan, Lombardi played conservatively but still went 11 for 15 for 115 yards and no turnovers. The offense played much more efficiently with his experience under center, leading to a 29-point win in Ypsilanti. Ohio has oscillated back and forth between looking like a true MAC contender and struggling to beat inferior opponents such as FAU or Fordham. Given these inconsistencies, I’ll place my money on the more experienced, and now healthy, quarterback.
Boise State +3 at Air Force: The Falcons have the nation’s best rushing attack, averaging 330.5 yards per game on just under 60 attempts. However, Boise State enters the game with a defense ranked second in total yards per game allowed. After a rough start to the year, the Broncos have undergone two major changes. First, offensive coordinator Tim Plough was fired and replaced by seasoned veteran Dirk Koetter. Second, the Boise State staff turned over the keys to the offense to dual-threat freshman quarterback Taylen Green. During his first two starts (both victories), Boise State’s offense averaged 316 rushing yards per game. I suspect that this will be a close game with fewer possessions. I’ll take the points and hope that the Broncos ascendance continues.
Central Florida -5 at East Carolina: Gus Malzahn and his 5-1 Knights team are flying high after putting up 70 points against Temple last week. The key to UCF’s success has been the play of quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, a transfer from Mississippi. Between his passing and rushing numbers, he accounted for 407 yards of offense and 7 touchdowns. East Carolina has its own experienced quarterback in Holton Ahlers, who is having the best season of his five-year career in Greenville. Ahlers has completed 68.2% of his passes and has gained 8.1 yards per attempt. In a matchup between two competent quarterbacks, I’ll take the team with the better defense. The Pirates rank 114th nationally by allowing completions on 66.5% of passes and rank 125th in allowing 9.5 yards per pass attempt. UCF should be able to outgun the potent ECU offense and stay in contention for the AAC title.
UTEP +4 vs. Florida Atlantic: There are many statistical similarities between these Conference USA opponents. Both teams allow 27 to 28 points per game. Both teams average 236 passing yards per game. Both defenses allow approximately 157 rushing yards each week. With so few differentiators, I’m inclined to take the points. The Miners already proved they can beat established programs like Boise State this season. Coming off a long rest, I give a slight edge to UTEP.
Parlay/Teaser of the Week
If you’re a pessimist, you might look at a 1-6 record on parlays and teasers and think I should maybe consider another type of bet. However, as an optimist, I see only valuable learning experiences from my past and opportunities in my future. I’ll try another teaser this week, this time using extra points to move the over/under number to a more advantageous total.
Random Fact to Impress Your Fellow Tailgaters
Two weeks ago, I had a winning week by focusing on betting favorites. However, David turned the table on Goliath during the Week 7 slate of games. According to the ESPN Stats and Information department, FBS underdogs went 34-11 against the spread this past Saturday. Among these teams that covered, there were 15 outright wins.
This is a highly irregular number of underdogs to win in a given week. Oddsmakers try to make lines that result in an even distribution of favorites and underdogs covering to minimize financial risk. Prior to Saturday’s games, sportsbooks had done a remarkable job in accomplishing just that; entering Week 7, FBS underdogs had a 158-159-8 record (49.8%) against the spread. Bookies know what they are doing.
SabreBetrics is a Virginia graduate and long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can reasonably afford to lose.
