SabreBetrics is back for a fourth season! Every week in the fall, I will provide free gambling advice about college football to supplement your Saturday viewing experience. My goal is to provide thought-provoking and data-driven analysis of upcoming games that everyone – including those not interested in betting – can enjoy.
Before we get into my preseason preview, though, there are a few important housekeeping items to share
- All opinions expressed in these columns are mine alone, and do not represent The Sabre. So don’t blame the site if your “SabreBetrics parlay” falls apart.
- Shameless plug: If you’re interested in hearing a preview of every ACC game throughout the season, I encourage you to listen to the Preferred Walk-ons Podcast hosted by me and my NC State-loving colleague, Michael Shutt. We provide lots of betting (and non-betting) content each week and are lining up some fun guests this fall to supplement our own opinions. Consider subscribing to our podcast or give it a listen on The Sabre when it is posted each week.
- Each week, I will provide an honest assessment of Virginia’s chances against the spread. As a rule, I never bet for or against the Hoos. I find that it’s best to keep your fandom and your wallet separate from each other.
- Sports betting should be fun and not stressful. Please don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. If you struggle with addiction and this column will exacerbate those tendencies, skip the articles and focus on the other great content TheSabre.com has to offer.
Now to focus on the teams and players that have captured my attention this preseason. Regular readers of this column will know that I have a pretty good track record with my preseason bets, particularly when predicting win totals.
- 2021: 6-3-1 with regular season overs & unders
- 2022: 4-1-1 with regular season overs
- 2023: 8-5-1 with regular season overs & unders and correctly identified Jayden Daniels as the Heisman winner
Preseason bets are less susceptible to the random events inherent to college football, and a team’s luck tends to even out over the course of a season. However, even when my wagers don’t pan out, I like making season bets because it gives you something to root for aside from your alma mater each week. You get to learn about a whole new set of players and fan traditions and extend the window of meaningful football on television each Saturday. In these difficult economic times, it’s a great way of stretching your betting dollar.
Without further ado, let’s get into my favorite available plays of the preseason. Note: Individual lines and vigs will differ by sportsbook.
Virginia’s Outlook
As I previously mentioned, I never bet for or against the Cavaliers with my own money. However, even if I was an impartial observer, I would probably shy away from the Vegas line of 4.5 wins. It’s a roster that looks better on paper than last year’s three-win team, but not overwhelmingly so. Data models seem to agree with this high-level assessment; Kelley Ford gives the Hoos a 49% chance of getting to five wins, while Bill Connelly projects just over four victories.
There are a few reasons to be cautiously optimistic about Tony Elliott’s third season. Virginia had five one-score losses in 2023 which suggests that the team could have easily finished with a better record than 3-9. Regardless of whether Tony Muskett or Anthony Colandrea wins the quarterback competition, UVA will not have to rely on a true freshman to play eight games at the most important position on the field. Both the offensive and defensive lines should have more continuity and experience. According to Pro Football Focus, senior center Brian Stevens ranked 14th among FBS centers in 2023 and was only responsible for allowing one sack. Defensive ends Kam Butler and Chico Bennett should anchor an improved front seven, and safety Jonas Sanker – preseason Chuck Bednarik Award watch list nominee – is one of the most talented defensive players in the ACC.
However, there are also reasons to suspect that Virginia will not be a major player in the conference race. While the starting talent has improved from a season ago, the depth of the roster is still a reason for concern. Other significant questions remain as well. How much improvement will we see from a secondary that allowed 409.2 yards per game in 2023, ranking 101st nationally? Can the Cavaliers improve upon an ineffective ground game that ranked 107th in yards per game and averaged only 3.12 yards per carry? Can the special teams unit, which directly contributed to losses against James Madison and NC State, be less awful?
If forced to choose, I predict UVA will beat the 4.5-win total and get to 5-7. For that to happen, the Hoos will need to have a fast start to the year. The first five games of the schedule (Richmond, at Wake Forest, Maryland, at Coastal Carolina, Boston College) all are winnable games. However, road games at Clemson, Notre Dame, and Virginia Tech seem out of reach for this team, and Virginia will be heavy underdogs in home contests versus Louisville and SMU. Even with moderate improvement, it is very difficult to imagine this program returning to a bowl game in 2024.
Five Teams That Will Go Over Their Regular Season Win Total
SMU over 8.5 wins (-110): The ACC generously decided to give SMU one of the easiest schedules in the Power 4 for their first year in the conference. The ‘Stangs avoid Clemson, Miami, NC State, and Virginia Tech entirely, while getting Florida State at home. The only road game against a Top 50 opponent is a trip to Louisville in Week 6.
Despite the change in conference, SMU should continue to have one of the most prolific offenses in college football. In 2023, quarterback Preston Stone completed nearly 60% of his passes while throwing for 3,197 yards, 28 touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions. After finishing seventh nationally in passing yards per dropback last season, Stone will continue to have offensive weapons at his disposal. Tight end RJ Maryland averaged over 15 yards per catch last year and is an NFL ready talent, while wideout Jordan Hudson led the team in receiving touchdowns as a freshman. Anyone expecting the Ponies to struggle in the ACC is in for a rude awakening.
Oklahoma State over 8 wins (-130): For years, the most valuable metric in figuring out a team’s progression from one season to the next was the amount of returning starting production. The widespread use of the transfer portal has made this statistic less predictive for most around college football. However, Mike Gundy’s squad returns 19 starters from a team that finished 10-4 and lost in the Big 12 Championship Game.
The offense will be anchored by one of the nation’s best running backs in Ollie Gordon II. After rushing for 1,614 yards and 20 touchdowns in 2023, Gordon is a legitimate Heisman contender. Quarterback Alan Bowman is one of the most experienced players in the country, now entering his seventh and final season of eligibility. With so much experience and stability on the roster, I have a difficult time seeing this team losing more than four games during the regular season.
Colorado over 5.5 wins (-135): Though I can already hear grumbles through the screen from message board contributors sick of the national attention Deion Sanders is receiving, I do think there is value with the Buffaloes. After starting the 2023 campaign with three scintillating wins, Colorado’s poor defense and lack of depth resulted in six straight losses to end the season.
Coach Prime doubled-down on his use of the transfer portal, signing 43 commitments, 12 more than the next closest team. Though defense will still be a question mark, adding DJ McKinney from Oklahoma State and Preston Hodge from Liberty can only improve a secondary that allowed 276.9 yards per game through the air. Similarly, the rushing attack that garnered only 827 yards all season (68.9 yards per game) should improve with the addition of two-time Mr. Football from Tennessee Dallas Hayden from Ohio State.
Despite the transfers, Colorado’s two most important players were on the roster last season. Both quarterback Shedeur Sanders and wideout/cornerback Travis Hunter are locks to go in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. The Buffaloes roster may not deserve the attention it is getting from the media and video game creators, but this will still be an exciting team to watch every week in a hectic Big 12 conference.
UCLA over 4.5 wins (-135): New head coach DeShaun Foster has a lot of work ahead of him to build a competitive roster that can survive in the Big 10. He may also want to work on his press conference skills. However, this win total seems too low for me given the talent that is still on the Bruins’ roster. Without Chip Kelly to create unnecessary quarterback competitions, Ethan Garbers can build upon his 66.4% completion percentage and 75.1 QBR in a full-time role. The running back tandem of TJ Harden and Anthony Adkins will be difficult to slow down. UCLA must play five teams that had double-digit wins last season including a brutal stretch starting in late September with games at LSU, Oregon, and at Penn State. Still, I think the returning offensive talent carries this team to bowl eligibility.
New Mexico over 2 wins (-130): In gambling parlance, this is what you would call a “system play.” There is often a lot of value in betting on either extreme of the win total spectrum. Even bad teams usually find a way to win a couple games. Only one FBS team last season (Kent State) would have lost a bet with this line. To be clear, nothing about the Lobos roster fills me with confidence. There are question marks on both sides of the ball and only nine returning starters. Still, I’ll take my chances on Bronco Mendenhall to best his first-year win total at Virginia. With eight games scheduled against teams projected outside the top 75 teams (not to mention FCS Montana State), I think the young players of New Mexico buy into Bronco’s culture-building and win at least three games.
Other Leans: East Carolina over 6.5 wins (-115), West Virginia over 6.5 wins (-130)
Five Teams That Will Go Under Their Regular Season Win Total
Texas A&M under 8.5 wins (+100): I have no doubt that head coach Mike Elko will create a more sustainable winning culture than Jimbo Fisher. Still, I think getting to 9-3 and threatening for the College Football Playoff is too much to ask for in the coach’s first year. Even though the Aggies avoid Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi, the schedule is no pushover. Road trips to Florida, South Carolina, and Auburn, along with home games against Notre Dame, Missouri, and Texas will make contending in the SEC a difficult task.
Quarterback Conner Weigman impressed in his first four games last season before suffering a season-ending foot injury. Though he is expected to be ready for Week 1, we will have to see whether he is the same athlete when returning to the field. Though Elko is known for his elite defenses, I am not as convinced by the underlying statistics from last year’s team. Though the defense only allowed 22 points per game in 2023, this unit also conceded a mediocre 5.23 yards per play. Additionally, Texas A&M must replace its leading tackler (Edgerrin Cooper) to the NFL. The Aggies will be a tough out on any given week and I like the overall trajectory of the program, but I think they are still a year away from being truly dangerous.
Louisville under 8.5 wins (-140): Jeff Brohm’s return to Louisville was memorable in his first year as head coach. The Cardinals went 10-4 and made it to the ACC Championship after going 4-0 in games decided by one score. Usually when teams have this type of luck in a season, there is a natural regression the following year. Brohm has several key contributors returning but will rely on injury-prone transfer quarterback Tyler Shough to initiate the offense. At Texas Tech, his 2021 and 2023 seasons both ended with major injuries. Even though Louisville avoids Florida State and Virginia Tech, the Cardinals must play road games at Notre Dame, Clemson, and Kentucky, and host SMU and Miami. Given this schedule and the strength of the ACC generally, I do not expect a return to the championship game this year.
Arizona under 7.5 wins (-115): After five consecutive seasons with a losing record, Arizona was one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season, finishing with a 10-3 record under third year head coach Jedd Fisch. Fisch used the successful campaign to bolt for Washington, leaving the program in the hands of San Jose State’s Brent Brennan. Keeping sophomore quarterback Noah Fifita from transferring ensured that the Wildcats would not completely revert back to irrelevance, but I still wonder if last year was an outlier for a normally middling program. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if a defense took a step back after losing most key contributors from the line, including Isaiah Ward, Tyler Manoa, and Taylor Upshaw. Life on the road will be very difficult for Arizona this season with trips to Kansas State, Utah, UCF, and TCU on the calendar.
Auburn under 7.5 wins (-135): If head coach Hugh Freeze is going to improve upon his 6-7 record from a season ago, he will need to get more out of the passing game. Auburn ranked 121st in the FBS with only 162.2 passing yards per game and quarterback Payton Thorne finished the season 69th in total QBR and 10 interceptions. I have never been particularly enamored with Thorne’s decision-making or arm talent, and he will need to take a major step forward in his fifth season if the Tigers are to compete in the SEC.
On the other side of the ball, the secondary is considerably less experienced than last year’s team after losing safeties Jaylin Simpson and Zion Puckett and cornerback DJ James. As is usually the case in the SEC, the schedule will be difficult. Even if you grant no upsets in all the games Auburn is favored (not a given), the Tigers will need to find two wins versus Oklahoma, at Georgia, at Missouri, at Kentucky, Texas A&M, and at Alabama.
Syracuse under 7.5 wins (-140): I see a clear reason for optimism with this year’s Syracuse team. Ten starters return on offense, and the addition of transfer quarterback Kyle McCord gives the Orange an effective passer with big game experience. The schedule starts off with five winnable games (though Georgia Tech, Stanford, and UNLV are not pushovers), but Syracuse will likely be an underdog in six of the last seven contests. Fran Brown is known for his recruiting prowess, but he has never been a head coach at any level. Getting eight wins in his first ever attempt at running a program seems like a stretch.
Other leans: Toledo under 8.5 wins (-140), Troy under 6.5 wins (-120), San Jose State under 4.5 wins (-120)
Next week, I’ll have a preview of Week 1 games as well as my picks for the Heisman and best bets for the College Football Playoff.
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and a long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
