Virginia Football Vs. Richmond: 3 Players, Trends, Predictions, Keys, And Picks

Virginia Cavaliers Kobe PaceVirginia lists Kobe Pace as its starting running back. Can he have a big game against Richmond? ~ Photo by Kris Wright/TheSabre.com

After a pair of low win totals to open the Tony Elliott era, the Virginia football team hopes to change the tide in 2024. The quest to better those 3-win campaigns begins this weekend when the season begins Saturday.

First up: Richmond. The Spiders visit Scott Stadium for a 6 p.m. scheduled kickoff and the 36th meeting between the two programs. UVA opened Elliott’s first season with a 34-17 victory in 2022. Richmond last won in 2016 when it rolled 37-20 in Charlottesville.

Last season, the Spiders went 9-4 after a slow start and advanced in the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs to the second round. They enter the year ranked 12th in the FCS coaches’ poll. The Hoos, meanwhile, finished 3-9 with two of those wins at Scott Stadium. So what’s on tap for the opener? Let’s take a quick-hitting look through lists of three.

3 Players To Watch

Virginia quarterback Anthony Colandrea (6’0”, 183), No. 10: With UVA holding a competition at quarterback through training camp, the emerging starter has to be on the season’s first list. Colandrea started six times last fall and edged out Tony Muskett to be the opening day starter here. The Florida native posted 1,958 passing yards, 13 toucdowns, and 9 interceptions plus 225 rushing yards last season. All eyes will be on his decision-making in this one as some ‘wow’ plays of creativity and arm strength were offset by the interceptions and forced plays last fall. How has he progressed?

Richmond linebacker Wayne Galloway (6’1”, 222), No. 9: Richmond’s top returning tackler posted 60 tackles a year ago and has 85 for his career. More important to note, perhaps, Galloway secured 2 interceptions last season and returned both for touchdowns. That included an 81-yard return against Delaware State. Will an experienced Richmond defense try to bait Colandrea into trouble?

Richmond receiver Nick DeGennaro (6’1”, 190), No. 11: DeGennaro enters this game coming off a big 2023 campaign that saw him tie the program record for single season touchdown catches with 11. He piled up 71 receptions for 904 yards. On the other side, UVA is figuring out who will be its starters at cornerback with Kempton Shine (5’11”, 191) likely getting some of the assignment to deal with DeGennaro. Can Shine rise to the moment of his first career game at Virginia and help slow down DeGennaro?

3 Trends To Know

Richmond has an interception in 10 of its last 13 games: The Spiders secured an interception in both of their playoff games last fall and had at least one in 10 games. There were multiple picks against Delaware State, Stony Brook, Maine, North Carolina A&T, and Campbell. D’Angelo Stocker (5’10”, 165) and Jabril Hayes (5’11’, 170) had 3 each in 2023 and both are back this fall.

Kam Butler has at least 0.5 sacks for Virginia in 6 of his last 8 games: Butler (6’3”, 256) led UVA with 3.5 sacks last season despite playing in just four games as he exited the NC State matchup early in week four with a season-ending injury. Butler actually finished the 2022 season with 0.5 sacks in two of four games and then started last year with a 0.5 sack against Tennessee followed by 1 sack each against JMU, Maryland, and NCSU. For a defense that really needs to up the pass rush, this is a trend the Hoos want to see continue.

UVA has started the same offensive lineman for 5 games in a row: Dating back to last season, the Hoos closed the schedule with the same players starting and playing the majority of the snaps across the offensive. Left to right, the quintet was McKale Boley (6’5”, 313), Noah Josey (6’5”, 318), Brian Stevens (6’2”, 300), Ty Furnish (6’3”, 293), and Blake Steen (6’5”, 328). Boley, Stevens, and Josey started all 12 games last season so experience isn’t an issue. Stevens earned All-ACC recognition last fall. Steen got some strong reviews in the spring while the others sat out following postseason surgery. Boley, meanwhile, missed part of training camp with a high ankle sprain. So how does this group play as the season opens?

3 Virginia Predictions

The Hoos rush for 175+ yards and Kobe Pace leads the way with 90+: This isn’t meant as a slight to a strong and experienced Richmond defense, which allowed just 112.7 rushing yards per game last season. In the 2022 meeting for Elliott’s debut, though, Virginia rushed for 259 yards and 3 touchdowns. Against William & Mary last season, UVA put up 221 rushing yards and 1 touchdown. Those are Elliott’s two games against FCS competition so far. The Spiders allowed 162 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns last season against Michigan State, a team that finished 127th nationally among FBS teams in rushing offense (89.5 yards per game).

Malachi Fields scores a touchdown: Fields (6’4”, 220) is the leading returning receiver for Virginia after registering 58 catches for 811 yards and 5 touchdowns last season. He had at least 1 touchdown catch in the final 2 games of 2023 against Duke and Virginia Tech. Again, the Spiders have a tough defense and the INT numbers were noted above, but on their depth chart none of the defensive backs are listed over 5’11” among the starters and the tallest corner is 6’0” redshirt freshman CJ Fraser.

Virginia secures 3+ sacks: The Hoos mustered only 11 total sacks last season to tie for last in the Football Bowl Subdivision rankings. In 2022, however, they managed 30 in just 10 games. With some experienced options to send after the quarterback, UVA’s defense will get at least 3 sacks in this game. The last time the Cavaliers had 4+? 2022 against UNC with 4.

3 Keys To The Game

No special teams gaffes: Richmond blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown against North Carolina A&T last fall. UVA gave up a crucial punt block for touchdown in a 36-35 loss against JMU last season. The Spiders have a good punter in Aaron Trusler (5’8”, 168) from Australia and he has an Australian football background, which allowed him to get a first down run on a fake last year too. Bottom line: don’t do anything on special teams to cost you points or momentum.

Win third down: Richmond’s defense allowed just a 29% conversion rate on third down (4th in FCS), while Virginia converted at just 36.07% on offense (tied for 97th in FBS) last season. On the flipside, UVA’s defense allowed 40.37% (85th in FBS), while the Spiders converted 30.4% on offense (111th in FCS). If either offense can improve on those numbers, it could be a factor in this game.

Limit damage: This can come in many forms. For one, it’s a season opener, so try to keep the mental mistakes down. Defensively, make sure you tackle well because the Spiders are going to mix in some misdirection, quick hitting passes, and designed QB runs. Don’t let those little concepts become big gainers often. Offensively, ball security is important and play cleanly in terms of penalties, especially holding, so you don’t stop your own drives.

3 Virginia Picks

Offensive Player Of The Game: Running back Kobe Pace (5’10”, 215), who rushes for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Defensive Player Of The Game: Linebacker Kam Robinson (6’2”, 234), who posts double-digit tackles and gets at least 1 stat in three of the following tracked categories – sacks, tackles for loss, forced fumbles, fumble recoveries, interceptions, pass breakups, blocks, quarterback hurries.

Winner: Virginia 37, Richmond 14. I’m not sure what to make of this UVA team, but I think veteran player leadership has everyone focused and ready to play in the opener.

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