The wait is finally over. Starting Thursday evening, you can watch college football for five consecutive days. Along with the opening days of March Madness, it is one of my favorite sports weekends of the entire year.
Though wagering on college football is one of the great joys of my life, I always try to approach Week 1 with caution. As evidenced by Florida State’s surprising upset in Ireland last Saturday, it is very difficult to predict how teams will look given the movement of coaches and players between programs. As the season progresses, we’ll get more data, and it will inform our financial decision-making about which teams to trust. Until then, we have to make assumptions as best we can given returning production and historical data.
After a look at the Virginia football team’s opener against Richmond, let’s examine a few more futures bets you can make at the outset of the season and predictions for Week 1.
Virginia’s Week 1 Preview
UVA -18.5 vs. Richmond, Over 49.5
In the lead-up to Week 1 games, many coaches around the country neglected to name a starting quarterback. Not so with Tony Elliott, who has chosen the potential and playmaking of Anthony Colandrea to lead the Virginia offense. He set single season records for passing yards, touchdown passes, and completions for a first year at UVA. Colandrea won over the fanbase with his swagger and his ability to make off-script plays, but the biggest question for the sophomore is whether he can avoid negative plays and turnovers – 9 interceptions and 5 fumbles (one lost) in 2023. Winning the turnover battle is the single biggest key in winning the game against a talented Richmond squad.
It remains unclear whether the Spiders will start Kyle Wickersham or Camden Coleman at quarterback on Saturday, but both athletes could give the Hoos problems. Both are accurate passers – Wickersham completed 72.6% of his passes in 2023 while Coleman completed 66.7% – and can scramble for yards if the need arises. The wide receiving corps is a strength with redshirt senior Nick DeGennaro returning after tying the program record with 11 touchdowns in a season. Most of the Richmond offensive line is back as well with Tom Elia and Keith Gouveia starting their third season as anchors of the Spiders’ pass protection unit. Given the talent and experience of Russ Huesman’s offense, I think Richmond will be able to put points on the board against a Virginia defense that struggled to pressure the quarterback and force turnovers a season ago.
Still, I side with the Cavaliers here to cover the spread. The Hoos have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games and Vegas expectations are low for the team entering the year. I predict a 38-17 win.
Best Bets For The College Football Playoff
Alabama to make the College Football Playoff (-125): Remember when the committee gave Alabama a spot in the semifinals over an undefeated major conference team? Even if you assume that the Crimson Tide will not win the SEC, consider how sideways the season would have to go for one of the nation’s premier programs to not be given a spot in the playoffs. Yes, the schedule is difficult even by SEC standards. Road games at Wisconsin, Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma are dangerous, as are home contests against Georgia, Missouri, and Auburn. However, Alabama still projects as a betting favorite in at least 10 of 12 games on the schedule.
The difficulty of the schedule may also become the team’s biggest asset when comparing resumes at the end of the season. The last time Alabama lost three conference games in a season was 2010. If that happens again and the Tide finish 9-3, I can’t see the committee leaving them out of the CFP. As Darth Vader famously said, “Search your feelings; you know it to be true.”
Mississippi to miss the CFP (+105): With Alabama getting an at-large spot by the committee, a deserving SEC team will be left out. I’m betting that it is Mississippi. Lane Kiffin is known for his high-octane offense. With quarterback Jaxson Dart returning for his senior season, the Rebels should put up a lot of points and be competitive every week. However, there are significant questions about a defensive unit that ranked 68th in yards allowed last season. With South Carolina, LSU, and Florida on the road and home games against Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Georgia, there are many potential pitfalls on Mississippi’s schedule. Kiffin likely needs to finish 10-2 or better to secure the program’s first playoff spot.
Utah to make the CFP (+210): Kyle Whittingham and the Utes are the favorites to win a chaotic and crowded Big 12. After winning Pac-12 titles in 2021 and 2022, Utah’s chance at a three-peat was doomed by injuries to its two best offensive players: quarterback Cameron Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe. Despite having to play with a slew of back-ups, the Utes won eight games and nearly knocked Washington out of the playoffs in Seattle. With Rising back and healthy, I think Whittingham’s squad will go back to being one of the best offenses in the conference. Rising threw for 5,527 yards and 46 touchdowns over the last two seasons he played and ranked ninth in QBR in 2022. With Utah likely favored in 11 of 12 games on the calendar, there is a good chance this team will make it to the conference championship game with a playoff berth on the line.
Heisman Trophy Contenders
Dillon Gabriel, Oregon (+700): Gabriel is the consensus Heisman favorite for good reason. In 2023 at Oklahoma, he ranked fourth nationally in QBR behind three players that were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft (Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and J.J. McCarthy). He’s also coming off a season where he ranked ninth in passing touchdowns (30) and sixth in passing yards per game (305). In transferring to Oregon for his sixth season of college football, Gabriel will be surrounded with more offensive talent on a contending team and will be playing for a coach in Dan Lanning who architected the nation’s best passing attack last season. I wish the vig had a better payout, but barring injury, it is very difficult to imagine a situation where Gabriel is not invited to the Heisman ceremony in December.
Jalen Milroe, Alabama (+1400): Being the starting quarterback at Alabama is a good starting point for a Heisman campaign. Since 2018, three Crimson Tide play-callers – Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones, and Bryce Young – have been finalists for college football’s most prestigious award. Jalen Milroe should take a significant step forward in his second season at the helm in Tuscaloosa. His new coach, Kalen DeBoer, was responsible for the nation’s second-best passing offense in 2023 while at Washington.
Unlike DeBoer’s previous understudy, Michael Penix, Milroe is a strong rusher as well. He had double-digit carries eight times in Alabama’s 14 games last season, including a season-high 21 rushes in the CFP Semifinal. Despite taking an inordinate number of sacks, Milroe still finished seventh in QBR and fourth in passing yards per attempt. With odds that are twice long as Gabriel’s, Milroe provides good value.
Jalon Daniels, Kansas (+3000): If you’re looking for a dark horse pick, I recommend the dynamic but injury-prone quarterback from Kansas. His 2022 season ended with a shoulder injury and the 2023 campaign was cut short after only three games because of a back issue. However, in the 12 games he has played the last two seasons, Daniels’ numbers are comparable to any quarterback in the country. He completed 74.7% of his passes in 2023, good for fourth nationally, and averaged 9.4 yards per completion. Like Milroe, he is dangerous in the open field and forces opposing teams to respect his rushing ability on every play. If he can stay healthy and Kansas performs above expectations in the Big 12, Daniels will be in the discussion at the end of the season for the Heisman.
Week 1 Best Bets
North Dakota State +10 at Colorado (-110): Scheduling North Dakota State is the embodiment of the Arrested Development “But it might work for us” meme. Of all the FCS schools Colorado could have scheduled, it chose the program with a six-game winning streak against FBS competition dating back to 2010. The Bison are loaded with experience, returning 9 of 12 players named to the All-Missouri Valley Conference team from 2023. Cam Miller is entering his fifth season as a starting quarterback in Fargo and led the FCS in passing efficiency rating last season. In addition to his arm, Miller rushed for 629 yards and 13 touchdowns as well.
Even though the Buffaloes were fun to watch last year, they were horrendous on defense. Deion Sanders’ squad surrendered 453.3 yards per game (127th nationally) and nearly 35 points per game. Colorado is likely to improve from last year’s 4-8 record given the influx of talent joining NFL-caliber players in Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. Still, with 43 new players added from the transfer portal, it might take some time to gel as a team. North Dakota State is absolutely not the team you want to be working out the kinks against.
Penn State -8 at West Virginia (-110): Speaking of teams with exciting offenses and subpar defenses, the Mountaineers ranked 62nd nationally in points allowed last season. Only five defensive starters return from a team that allowed 237.4 passing yards per game. That pales in comparison to Penn State’s elite defense last season. The Nittany Lions had the nation’s third ranked scoring defense (13.5 points per game) and only allowed 172.1 passing yards per game in 2023. WVU quarterback Garrett Greene is undeniably talented, but he struggled against James Franklin’s team last season in a 38-15 loss. Expect Penn State to pressure Greene early and often and force several turnovers in a comfortable road win.
James Madison -8 at Charlotte (-110): When coaches have their game week press conferences, they usually project an air of focused confidence. Well, Charlotte’s Biff Poggi isn’t like most coaches. During his Tuesday presser, he informed the media that his 49ers squad would likely be missing eight or nine starters due to injury and gave himself an “F-” for his approach to preseason camp. I know my articles are supposed to reflect an analytical, numbers-focused perspective, but sometimes vibes are just bad!
Despite losing head coach Curt Cignetti to Indiana and several key players to the transfer portal, James Madison should still be one of the best teams in the Sun Belt Conference. Kelley Ford has the Dukes favored in 10 of 12 games, including 7 of 8 in the conference. Even with the question marks that come with a change in coaching staff, I think there’s value in betting JMU at +700 or higher to win the conference.
Georgia State +21.5 at Georgia Tech (-110): After earning a nationally televised win against a Top 10 opponent, head coach Brent Key faces the challenge of getting his team to avoid a letdown. Georgia Tech’s stock could not be higher, and I suspect it has inflated the number on this in-state rivalry.
One reason to avoid picking the Yellow Jackets as heavy favorites: the number of possessions in the game. Saturday’s win against Florida State had only 14 total possessions between the two teams. That’s the fewest since November 2020 and only the fifth time since 2007 that a game has featured 14 or fewer possessions. Virginia basketball fans should be keenly aware of how low-possession games impact the overall scoring and increase the possibility of an upset. I don’t expect the Panthers to get an outright win at Bobby Dodd Stadium, but I think Georgia State keeps a jet-lagged and overconfident Georgia Tech team within arms’ reach.
LSU -4 vs. USC (-110): In 2023, LSU and USC shared a blueprint of using dynamic offenses to cover up for defensive deficiencies. Both teams lost a lot of offensive talent, including Heisman-winning quarterbacks, but appear to be well-positioned to score a lot of points again this season. I like the Tigers in this matchup because they have more returning players. USC returns just three offensive starters and has a quarterback in Miller Moss who has only thrown 92 passes in his career. In contrast, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier has played in 18 games for the Tigers, throwing for 1,720 yards and 11 touchdowns. Even though Brian Kelly’s defense was not elite last season, it was considerably better than Lincoln Riley’s program that ranked 118th nationally in scoring defense. Until I see Riley assemble a competent defense at Southern California, I remain skeptical of the heights his program can get to.
Hope everyone enjoys five straight days of college football madness!
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and a long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
