In a game where sacks could be an important statistic, Chico Bennett Jr. will try to give Virginia a boost. ~ Photo by Kris Wright/TheSabre.com
With Week 1 now in the rearview, the Virginia football team now turns its attention to the start of ACC play. The Hoos head to Wake Forest on Saturday night for a 7 p.m. kickoff that will feature UVA’s first trip to Winston-Salem since the 2020 season.
Both teams enter this matchup with a 1-0 record. While UVA took down Richmond 34-13 last week, the Demon Deacons topped North Carolina A&T 45-13. The teams also share low media expectations when it comes to the ACC – the preseason poll tabbed Wake 15th and Virginia 16th in that voting. Of course, that prediction also made Florida State a fairly heavy favorite to win the league and the Seminoles are already off to a rough 0-2 start in the ACC standings.
So what’s on tap for the ACC opener? Let’s take a quick-hitting look through lists of three.
3 Players To Watch
Wake Forest defensive lineman Jasheen Davis (6’3”, 270), No. 30: Virginia coach Tony Elliott said that this game would be decided in the trenches. That includes the matchup of UVA’s offensive vs. Wake’s defensive line. That’s where Davis provides a lot of production for the Deacs. An All-ACC Honorable Mention pick last season, he has 120 career tackles with 21 career sacks. Davis has logged 30.5 tackles for loss (13.5 sacks) in the last 18 games with at least 0.5 tackles for loss in 21 of the last 22 games.
Virginia running back Kobe Pace (5’10”, 215), No. 5: Pace started the season off on a good note with 144 all-purpose yards against Richmond. He posted 11 carries for 93 yards and 1 touchdown plus 51 receiving yards. This week, Pace will be facing Wake Forest, the team he piled up a career-high 191 rushing yards against in 2021 while playing running back for Clemson. This is a different team and offense, obviously, but if he recaptures any of that success, it would be a big boost for the UVA offense.
Wake Forest quarterback Hank Bachmeier (6’2”, 215), No. 9: The Deacs plan to use two quarterbacks with some frequency this season, but Bachmeier is getting the starting nod this week. One of the many older players in this matchup, he’s on his sixth season of college football . Bachmeier has tallied 8,926 passing yards in his career with 54 touchdown passes. That’s 10th nationally among Power 4 QBs. His career started at Boise State and he led the Broncos to a 2019 win against Florida State.
3 Trends To Know
Virginia has lost five straight in this series: Conference realignment has spaced out the meetings with Wake Forest in the past two decades as the Hoos played in the former Coastal Division with the Deacs in the Atlantic. With that said, Wake Forest owns a five-game winning streak against UVA, its longest ever in the head-to-head series. The Hoos last won in 2007 and last won in Winston-Salem all the way back in 2002. Interestingly, this marks the first time since 1978 that Virginia opens conference play against Wake.
Close ACC games are the norm for the Hoos lately: Regardless of that trend or even who the opponent is, it seems likely that this will be a close game. At least if you go by recent results. Over the last 12 ACC games for Virginia, nine have been decided by a touchdown or less and seven have been decided by four points or less. The Cavaliers put a lot of attention on close losses last year (five one-score defeats) and have talked about wanting to reverse that pattern.
The UVA offense has produced eight straight games with a 100-yard receiver: Malachi Fields (6’4”, 220) turned in a big performance against Richmond in the season opener. While he didn’t score a touchdown as predicted in last week’s preview, he did put up 100 yards receiving on 5 catches. That’s his first career century mark game. Virginia has produced a 100-yard receiver in eight straight games. Fields is now up to 969 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns over his last 14 games.
3 Virginia Predictions
The Hoos extend the explosiveness on offense: Virginia recorded 7 plays of 30+ yards in its opener: Anthony Colandrea (35-yard run), Trell Harris (35-yard catch), Kobe Pace (52-yard catch, 43-yard run), Jack Griese (57-yard catch), and Malachi Fields (32-yard catch, 41-yard catch). Only two teams had more in Week 1 (Washington State 9, Auburn 8). The Hoos only had 20 plays of 30+ yards last season, but this feels more sustainable with varying ways to pick up chunk yardage on this roster. Meanwhile, Wake Forest allowed 35 plays of 30+ yards last season (tied for 118th nationally). The prediction … UVA will get 4+ 30+ yard plays this week.
Virginia gets an interception from a defensive back: The Cavaliers created 2 fumbles against Richmond and recovered 1. This week, the defense will get an interception to add to the total. Bachmeier only has 24 career interceptions in 39 games, but 6 of those (25%) came in just 4 games against the type of competition he now must face weekly in the ACC (FSU 1, Washington 2, Oklahoma State 1, Oregon State 2). UVA defensive coordinator John Rudzinski is familiar with Bachmeier from his time at Air Force and his defense got an INT in the 2021 meeting against Boise State, a game the Falcons won 24-17.
UVA running back Xavier Brown sets a career high in some way: Brown (5’9”, 196) missed most of the 2023 season after showing promise as a true freshman in 2022. Last week in his return to more significant snaps, he posted 44 yards on 8 carries with 58 yards on 2 kickoff returns. Wake’s defense shifts and changes fronts, which can create confusion, but if an offense can get the angle on an assignment, that could create creases. Brown runs really well through creases. Plus, while the Deacs allowed only 2 30+ yard kickoff returns last season, they did give up 8 of those in 2022. Brown’s career highs right now are: a 38-yard run, a 37-yard kickoff return, 88 single-game rushing yards, and an 8-yard reception. He’ll top one of those this week.
3 Keys To The Game
Beat blocks and keep tackling: A lot of the chatter this week has focused on the unique ‘slow mesh’ style of Wake Forest’s read option offense. Understandably. It can cause all kinds of trouble at times. The Demon Deacons, for example, have 99 passing touchdowns since the start of the 2021 season to rank No. 2 in the ACC in that time and part of that stems from confusion from defenses.
The keys to the whole offense, though, are timing (to read and make decisions ) and persistence (eventually, the O thinks it will jump on a mistake). The ways a defense can disrupt those plans are to get off of blocks, particularly one-on-one matchup blocks, to get into gaps and force decisions and to tackle well. If you keep the mesh runs in front of you and don’t get burned for any big chunk passes or touchdown throws, then it comes down to tackling. Pro Football Focus graded UVA with a strong 83.0 in Week 1, which ranked 16th nationally for the week. Bring that tackling focus and execution on the road and the chances of winning go up.
Win the sack attack battle: A lot has been made this of UVA’s issues with getting to the quarterback for sacks both last season and in the opener. Well, Wake is in the same boat. While the Hoos tied for last nationally last season with 11 sacks, the Deacons were just 92nd with 23. On the other side of that coin, Virginia allowed 43 sacks in 2023 to tie for 123rd … but Wake was 129th as it allowed 49.
Progress in any of those areas was hard to decipher given the way both teams won against lower level competition in Week 1. There could be a lot of hidden yards, field position shifts, and drive deciders coming from the sack category this week. Who wins that battle?
Match the moment: Virginia has not started 2-0 under Tony Elliott. The Hoos haven’t won an ACC opener since the 2020 conference season started against Duke. There are 10 more games after this. Still, this game has the feel of an important checkpoint moment for the Hoos in the Elliott era. Fans have talked about it. Media asked about it. Social media posts have been made about it. That makes this a pretty big opportunity.
So what does match the moment mean other than getting a win? For one, Virginia looked more focused and more prepared in Week 1 but this is a chance to ‘show’ fans that want to see progress and consistency in that regard. Two, the Demon Deacons do have the feel of a physical football program under Dave Clawson. Match that toughness in all three phases. And, finally, Wake Forest is viewed as an incredibly well-coached program so avoid the ‘they’re going to talk about that’ decisions and mistakes on things like timeouts, special teams, fourth downs, and so on.
3 Virginia Picks
Offensive Player Of The Game: Receiver Chris Tyree (5’10”, 190) didn’t get off to the start he wanted with Virginia, but anticipate a bounce-back game with at least 100 all-purpose yards (45+ receiving, 20+ rushing, 35+ return yards).
Defensive Player Of The Game: Safety Jonas Sanker (6’1”, 210) had 8 tackles in the opener and he figures to have a big role with his position against this offense. He had five games with double-digit tackles last season and this could be another one.
Winner: Virginia 27, Wake Forest 24. It’s going to be a close one as both teams played a lot of those types of games last season. The Hoos find a way to get started with a win in league play.
I agree with your assessment and score