Throughout the opening week of the college football season, favorites were coasting to comfortable victories. Then ACC chaos happened.
Virginia Tech became the first and only double-digit favorite to lose outright on Saturday. Florida State followed up its Week 0 loss in Ireland with a second conference loss against Boston College. It marked only the third time in the last 45 years where an FBS team lost two consecutive games as a double-digit favorite (the ball is in your court now, Hokies!). These upsets serve an important reminder that anything can and will happen in college football. Every weekend provides an opportunity for inexplicable calamity. It’s what makes betting mystifying, frustrating, and glorious in equal turns.
So let’s look at predictions and bets for this week.
Virginia Week 2 Preview
Wake Forest -1 vs. Virginia, Under 57
Virginia’s opening quarter against Richmond was one of the most dominant performances we have seen from the Hoos in years. Anthony Colandrea looked the part of a Power 4 starting quarterback, passing for 297 yards without an interception and earning a 211.1 passer rating, second best in the conference in Week 1. After two years of middling offensive production, it was comforting to watch the Cavaliers amass nearly 500 yards of offense and win a game comfortably against an inferior opponent.
Now Virginia faces a considerably more dangerous opponent in Wake Forest that has given the program trouble in recent years.
Much has been written about Dave Clawson’s “slow mesh” offensive scheme and how it puts defenses on their heels with the run-pass option. For the offense to work, it requires a quarterback with a lot of experience who can make defensive reads in quick succession. Hank Bachmeier seems to fit the bill perfectly for Wake Forest, though he is not as talented or athletic as Sam Hartman. In his 39th career start, Bachmeier effectively distributed the ball to his dynamic wide receiving corps, throwing for 263 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Demon Deacons offense will test Virginia’s defensive discipline which has not been a strength in the last two seasons.
This line opened in several sportsbooks at 2.5 but it moved towards the Hoos as the week progressed. While I’d like to feel optimistic about UVA’s chances, I’m mentally stuck on the recent history between these two teams. Wake Forest has won five straight in the series and the Cavaliers have not won in Winston-Salem since 2002. Expect both teams to move the ball effectively in this one, with turnovers likely being the difference in the game. I hope I am wrong, but I have the Deacs winning 31-24.
College Football Predictions & Best Bets
- Last week and season to date: 3-2
Duke +2.5 at Northwestern: This Friday night game is worth watching for no other reason than the beautiful shots of Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium along Lake Michigan. However, if you like low scoring games with defensive-minded coaches, you’ll be doubly thrilled.
Both teams had strong defensive showings in their openers. Northwestern held Miami (Ohio) to 6 points and 40 yards on the ground in a 13-6 win. Meanwhile, Duke’s defensive front bulldozed Elon’s offensive line in a sloppy 26-3 victory. The Blue Devils lived in the Phoenix backfield, sacking the quarterback eight times and forcing 16 tackles for a loss – the most for a Duke team since 2007.
Of the two performances, I am more optimistic about what I saw from Manny Diaz’s squad. Despite a few overthrows and a late game interception, quarterback Maalik Murphy impressed in his Duke debut, passing for 291 yards and 2 touchdowns. There’s a reason he was highly recruited out of high school and played snaps at Texas before losing out to Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning. The over/under for the game is only 37 points, so expect a game with a lot of defense with coaches trying to maximize field position. Still, I think Duke has more offensive upside and will win this game outright.
Kansas State at Tulane Over 47.5 (-110): Sometimes you have to put the spreadsheets aside and give your readers analysis about the games they care most about. I know everyone will be glued to their televisions at noon on Saturday for this out-of-conference matchup. What other game would you be watching instead?
For my first points total bet of the season, I am taking the over after watching Kansas State and Tulane amass a total of 93 points and 921 yards from scrimmage in Week 1. Yes, both teams were facing inferior FCS competition. Still, the track record of these schools gives me reason to expect continued offensive competence in 2024. Chris Klieman’s Wildcats ranked 10th nationally by scoring 37.1 points per game last season with an up-tempo offense that averaged 73.8 plays per game (8th in the FBS). Tulane was not as prolific on offense but consistently put up an average amount of points each week. The Green Wave only fell short of 20 points once last season. If they can manage that again here, it will be plenty to cash in on the over. Find a side television or tablet to monitor the Texas-Michigan game and put the fireworks from this game up on the big screen.
Kentucky -9.5 vs. South Carolina (-110): Take a look at this video of South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer following his team’s narrow victory over Old Dominion. Does that look like a coach brimming with confidence heading into SEC play? The Gamecocks accumulated only 288 yards in the victory, averaging 3.6 yards per play. The passing game was non-existent with LaNorris Sellers completing only 10 of 23 passes for 114 yards in his first career start. Now South Carolina must face a Kentucky defense that allowed only 5 rushing yards through three quarters against Southern Mississippi.
Part of the reason for the Wildcats’ success in stopping the run is future first-round draft pick lineman Deone Walker. At 6’6” and 344 pounds, Walker led the team in sacks last season with 8 and is known for his ability to blow up plays. After watching South Carolina’s pass protection last week, Walker figures to feast in this game. I’m also a fan of former blue-chip prospect Brock Vandagriff who is finally getting his opportunity as a starting quarterback after sitting behind Stetson Bennett and Carson Beck at Georgia.
As Beamer pointed out in his weekly press conference this week, “The only reason Caleb Williams ended up at Oklahoma is because Brock decommitted from Oklahoma and went to Georgia.” I like Kentucky to cover this spread, but this game is also a great anchor for teasing other games you might be less sure about.
Iowa -2.5 vs. Iowa State (-110): Matt Campbell has accomplished much during his tenure in Ames, but he has struggled mightily against his intrastate rival. Campbell has only captured the Cy-Hawk Trophy once in seven attempts, and Iowa has won eight of the last 10 meetings.
Iowa State’s Week 1 performance against North Dakota left much to be desired despite the victory. The Cyclones managed only 86 rushing yards and held the ball for only 22 minutes. Those statistics won’t translate well when facing an Iowa team that has a ferocious front seven and loves to monopolize possession.
Kirk Ferentz has never been known for fielding a juggernaut offense during his time in Iowa City. Perhaps his one-game suspension gave his team the excuse to rack up 40 points and nearly 500 yards of offense against Illinois State. Quarterback Cade McNamara allayed the fears of many Hawkeye fans by throwing for 251 yards, 3 touchdowns, and only one second-half incompletion. Running back Kaleb Johnson was effective as well, gaining 119 yards on only 11 carries with 2 touchdowns.
This series has a history of low-scoring games, especially at Kinnick Stadium, so it will likely be a close one. However, Iowa simply has more talent on both sides of the ball and has dominated the series. No need to overthink this one.
Colorado +7.5 at Nebraska (-110): I correctly predicted last week that Coach Prime’s team would not be able to cover a double-digit spread against North Dakota State. Despite making money on the game, it was a stressful watch because of how dynamic the Buffaloes offense looked with Shedeur Sanders at the helm. Despite a concerted effort from the Bison to keep the ball out of his hands (Colorado had just over 23 minutes of possession), Sanders threw for 445 passing yards and 4 touchdowns. Wideouts Travis Hunter and Jimmy Horn Jr. demonstrated their NFL potential by running freely through the secondary to the tune of 330 collective receiving yards. Whatever deficiencies Colorado may still have on defense, the offense will keep the Buffaloes in any game they play.
That brings us to the Huskers who have a recent history of playing in and losing one-score games. Since 2021, Nebraska has played 37 total games – 19 have been decided by a touchdown or less. In these 19 games, the Huskers have an incredible 2-17 record. Granted, many of these games were played before Matt Rhule was named the head coach (though not all). Still, if the game stays close in the second half, there will be a palpable sense of dread that fills Memorial Stadium. Take the points here and enjoy what figures to be a chaotic game between former conference rivals.
Mississippi State +6.5 at Arizona State (-110): I try to strike a balance between using available data from Week 1 without overreacting. Vegas’ decision to install Arizona State as a touchdown favorite in this game after a convincing home win against Wyoming is a bit much for me. A pick-six in the first minute of the game completely deflated the Cowboys and it snowballed.
Coming off a 3-9 season, the Sun Devils are still one of the least talented teams in the Big 12 and return only 10 starters. I still have questions about Arizona State’s quarterback play; though Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt played well in this game, he only has 45 career passing attempts and has thrown 2 interceptions. I’m anxious to see how he will fare against an SEC defense this week.
In contrast, Mississippi State quarterback Blake Shapen has a wealth of experience and 24 career starts under his belt. His performance of 15-20 passing with 247 yards against Eastern Kentucky in Week 1 earned him the 11th best QBR of all Week 1 quarterbacks. He also demonstrated his rushing ability, carrying the ball seven times for 44 yards and a touchdown. The Bulldogs may not be the class of the SEC, but they will undoubtedly provide a better test for Arizona State this week. I will take the points in a game that could go either way.
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and a long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
