One of the byproducts of college football realignment is that there are more rivalry games that are no longer intraconference matchups. Many schools have had to move up historic rivalries earlier in the season to preserve tradition. For college football fans, this means we are treated to highly contentious games in September. It’s like opening your Christmas presents three months early.
In previewing Week 3 games, I’ve found several rivalry games you can lean into from a betting perspective. But first, what about the Hoos?
Virginia Week 3 Preview
- Virginia +2.5 vs. Maryland, Over 57
So far, so good for Tony Elliott’s squad through two games. Virginia has shown clear improvement on both sides of the ball from a season ago.
Aside from one bad decision in the third quarter against Wake Forest, Anthony Colandrea has lived up to the QB1 billing. He is one of four quarterbacks nationally that rank in the Top 25 in four major categories: passing yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, and quarterback rating. Malachi Fields has been electric at wideout, averaging 15.5 yards per reception and ranking 11th nationally with 248 total receiving yards.
Though the defense allowed 544 yards to the Demon Deacons’ offense, it also recorded 6 sacks. For a team that had 11 total sacks in 2023 and was near the bottom of the FBS in havoc rate, it was a major step forward for the Cavaliers’ front seven.
Fan optimism will be put to the test against former ACC rival, Maryland. The Terrapins have a dynamic offense – ranked 19th in the FBS with 317 passing yards per game – that will test Virginia’s beleaguered secondary. Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. seems to have won the job for Mike Locksley after two starts. He’s an accurate passer with only 1 interception thus far and has the 14th best QBR in the country. His top target, wide receiver Tai Felton, currently leads the nation with 330 receiving yards in two games. In the Locksley era, Maryland has averaged 42.4 points per game in non-conference games. After surrendering exactly 42 points in College Park last year, Virginia’s defense will likely struggle to keep the Terps out of the end zone Saturday evening.
However, I also think the Cavaliers’ offense has an opportunity to light up the scoreboard against a middling Maryland secondary. The Terrapins’ defense gave up 363 passing yards and 7.1 yards per play last week to a mediocre Michigan State squad. Growing up a Virginia fan in the D.C. area, there is no program I despise more than Maryland (including Virginia Tech or North Carolina). There’s a reason I don’t bet on UVA games; I have no chance of being rational on a rivalry game like this one. I’ll take Virginia to win outright in a shootout, 34-31.
College Football Predictions & Best Bets
- Record last week: 2-4; Season record: 5-6
Michigan -23.5 vs. Arkansas State (-110): The defending champions have not shown much to be excited about thus far. The Wolverines got a sleepy win over Fresno State in Week 1 and were boat raced by a superior Texas team on national television last Saturday. While I still think there are intractable problems for Michigan this season, it won’t matter this weekend against the Red Wolves. Arkansas State ranks 70th in the country in passing defense, allowing an average of 12.4 yards per completion. The run defense is even worse, conceding 199 yards per game on the ground (114th in the FBS). These outputs have come against Central Arkansas and Tulsa in two narrow victories.
Michigan running back Donovan Edwards has gotten off to a slow start this season, but this is a perfect opportunity for a confidence boost. Offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell expressed a commitment to “be a run-first team” earlier this week. This is the perfect opponent to enforce this classic Big Blue offensive identity.
West Virginia -2 at Pittsburgh (-110): Though I have no personal connection to either team, I have always had an affection for the “Backyard Brawl.” It perfectly encapsulates the nastiness that rivalries are supposed to exude. West Virginia was a preseason dark horse candidate to win the Big 12, but getting mauled by Penn State in Week 1 seems to have knocked Neal Brown’s team out of the public consciousness. Personally, I think there’s no shame in losing to one of the best defensive teams in the country. Quarterback Garrett Greene, playing in his fifth year of college football, will be poised in a road environment and should find daylight against a defense that has allowed 239.5 passing yards per game (97th in the FBS).
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is fortunate to be 2-0 after an improbable victory at Cincinnati. After trailing 27-6 in the third quarter, freshman quarterback Eli Holstein led four second-half scoring drives to give the Panthers their biggest comeback since 1971. Though the young gunslinger has played better than I expected coming into the season, this rivalry game will be his biggest test to date. It should be a good game with a lot of points scored, but ultimately, I side with the better, more experienced quarterback.
Washington -4.5 vs. Washington State (-110): Washington has undergone a complete roster overhaul from last season’s team that made the National Championship game. Will Rogers, the Mississippi State transfer, has settled in nicely in Seattle. He’s 1 passing touchdown shy of 100 in his storied career and has yet to throw an interception this season. New coach Jedd Fisch has maintained the offensive firepower that Kalen DeBoer was known for. Through two games, the Huskies are in the top 10 in both passing efficiency and defensive passing efficiency.
In this game, Fisch’s primary objective must be to make Cougars quarterback John Mateer a one-dimensional player. Despite an interception and completing under 50% of his passes against Texas Tech last week, Mateer ran through the Red Raiders’ defense to the tune of 197 yards on 21 carries. If Washington can keep him in the pocket, I think they have the advantage. Though this Apple Cup matchup is technically at a neutral site (Lumen Field in Seattle), it figures to be a decidedly pro-Huskies crowd. Washington has won 12 of the last 13 in this series, and I expect them to get another victory here as well.
Mississippi -22.5 at Wake Forest (-110): If you’re looking for a way of getting Heisman voters’ attention, follow Mississippi quarterback Jaxson Dart’s lead. Last weekend against Middle Tennessee State, Dart started the game with 24 straight completions, an SEC record. He is the perfect quarterback for Lane Kiffin’s up-tempo offense. Through two games, the Rebels have accumulated 1,427 yards of offense and 131 points. Mississippi has the nation’s best offensive attack, leading all FBS teams in passing yards per game (463) and is third in passing yards per attempt (12.2).
After watching Virginia’s offense pick apart the Wake Forest secondary this past weekend, I see no reason why these trends won’t continue. The Demon Deacons rank 78th in points allowed per game and 105th in passing yards allowed. The offense has some weapons and will likely be able to score a few touchdowns, but I expect Wake Forest to struggle against the Rebels’ stout front seven. Kiffin’s defense currently ranks first in rushing defense, averaging only 27 yards per game and less than a yard per rushing attempt. The big number doesn’t scare me in this one; Mississippi is simply better.
Oregon at Oregon State Over 50 Points (-110): Oregon has not looked like a National Championship contender to start the season, narrowly beating Idaho and needing a late field goal to topple Boise State. However, the offense hasn’t really been an issue for the Ducks. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel has completed 84.3% of his passes and has put together a 177.9 rating through two games.
On the other sideline, Oregon State has one of the nation’s best rushing offenses, averaging nearly 300 yards per game. Running back Jam Griffin ranks 14th among all FBS players in rushing yards. He should be able to gain traction against an Oregon defense that ranks 78th in rushing yards allowed per game.
20 of the last 22 “Civil War” games have gone over the 50-point threshold. In a rivalry game with two potent offenses, I think we’ll see the over hit again.
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and a long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
