Through three weeks of the college football season, the Atlantic Coast Conference has not gone according to the script.
Florida State became the first school in FBS history to begin the year with a Top 10 ranking and lose the first three games to unranked opponents. Two predicted dark horse challengers for the conference crown, NC State and SMU, have looked offensively inept and are starting young back-up quarterbacks this week in critical games. Duke, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, California, and Syracuse have all burst out of the gate with undefeated records.
In my biased perspective, it has been the most fascinating conference to watch this season, both from a football and betting perspective. This week, I am giving the ACC the attention it deserves and hopefully finding value in the betting market.
Virginia Week 4 Preview
- Virginia at Coastal Carolina +3.5, Under 55.5
If the second half of the Wake Forest game buoyed fan optimism for the Virginia football team, the last 30 minutes of the Maryland game was equally deflating.
The offense could only muster 82 yards and five first downs in the second half, while allowing the Terrapins to gain 250 yards and 20 unanswered points. Anthony Colandrea reverted to some old destructive tendencies with three turnovers, and the offensive line gave him no time in the pocket. On the season, Tony Elliott’s team has not capitalized on crucial scoring opportunities, scoring only five touchdowns in 12 red zone trips. With these questions lingering, UVA must travel to hostile territory in Conway, South Carolina and play against a team currently firing on all cylinders.
Coastal Carolina coach Tim Beck was happily escorted out of Raleigh by the Wolfpack faithful after his inconsistent tenure as the offensive coordinator at NC State from 2020-2022. Now in his second year in Conway, Beck seems to have regained his offensive mojo. Through three games, the Chanticleers lead the Sun Belt Conference with 252 rushing yards per game and are averaging 41 points per contest. Quarterback Ethan Vasko may not be the most accurate passer (55.6% on completions this season), but he has terrorized opposing defenses with designed runs and scrambles when the play breaks down. For Virginia to have any success in this game, it will need to maintain rushing lane discipline and contain Vasko to the pocket. Unfortunately, rushing defense has not been a particular strength for the Cavaliers this season. Out of 17 conference teams, the Wahoos have the 12th ranked rushing defense, allowing 138.7 yards on the ground per game, and are 14th in total defense (397.3 total yards).
This is only the second time in program history that Coastal Carolina has hosted a Power 4 team. The ticket prices are reflective of this fact. Of all ACC games this week, UVA-Coastal Carolina has the most expensive tickets on the secondary market. As Preston Willett points out, Virginia has historically not done well with these types of games. Since 2000, the Cavaliers have played in 10 true road games against teams outside the Power 4. They have only won one of the last five attempts and have a 4-6 record overall.
Given this history and the Chanticleers’ prolific offense, I am skeptical about Virginia’s chances and think the wrong team is favored here. Until Virginia can play a more complete brand of football, I think the program will continue to struggle in critical games. The Chanticleers win 31-21.
College Football Predictions & Best Bets
- Record last week: 2-3; Season record: 7-9
NC State +20.5 at Clemson (-110): A couple weeks ago, this line was available at around a touchdown. A lot has changed for both programs since then. After looking feckless against Georgia’s defense in Week 1, Clemson’s offense bounced back with a dominant 66-20 win against Appalachian State and has had a week to prepare for its first ACC matchup. Meanwhile, NC State was outclassed by Tennessee and needed a fourth quarter rally to squeak by Louisiana Tech at home. The architect of that rally was back-up freshman quarterback CJ Bailey who came in relief of an injured and ineffective Grayson McCall.
You may worry about picking a team starting a true freshman in one of college football’s most hostile environments, but I think the move to Bailey is likely to provide a spark this Saturday. Under Robert Anae’s offense, McCall was clearly struggling; the Wolfpack currently rank 119th nationally in yards per play (4.2) when facing FBS competition. After settling into the game against the Bulldogs, Bailey found a rhythm in the second half, completing 12 of 18 pass attempts for 144 yards with a rushing touchdown. It’s fair to wonder if Dave Doeren’s team was overhyped in the preseason and will not seriously threaten the top of the conference standings. Still, one explosive performance from Clemson against a bad defensive team is not enough for me to want to lay three touchdowns.
North Carolina -10 vs. James Madison (-120): It appears that Curt Cignetti’s departure from Harrisonburg has caused downstream impacts on the talent level in the James Madison football program. When new coach Bob Chesney evaluated the impacts of the offseason transfer portal, he estimated that 96% of the production was lost from the 2023 Dukes roster. The offense has looked rough thus far, scoring only nine first half points through two games. James Madison trailed Gardner-Webb 3-0 in Week 2 before eventually winning an uninspired 13-6 snoozefest.
That level of offensive futility won’t cut it against North Carolina. Behind talented running back Omarion Hampton, the Tar Heels have the 15th best rushing attack in the country. Hampton leads all backs in the ACC with 416 rushing yards and he’s fourth nationally in yards gained. Critically, his production has provided a safety blanket for inexperienced quarterbacks Conner Harrell and Jacolby Criswell to get their feet under them since the opening week injury to Max Johnson. I still think Mack Brown’s defense has some major question marks, but it won’t matter until next weekend’s early season rivalry game against Duke.
Virginia Tech -3 vs. Rutgers (-120): If second quarters didn’t exist, the Hokies would be one of the best teams in the country. Brent Pry’s squad has been outscored 31-6 in the second frame so far this season, but in all other quarters, they have outscored the opposition 89-34. While this in-game inconsistency is likely frustrating for Hokies fans, it suggests to me that Pry’s staff has the talent to compete in the ACC if they can figure out how to make the pieces work together.
Quarterback Kyron Drones was finally unleashed on the ground against Old Dominion, rushing for 117 yards on 12 carries. His dual-threat ability is a differentiator for the Virginia Tech offense, especially when paired with running back Bhayshul Tuten who has 235 rushing yards and three touchdowns the past two weeks.
Under Greg Schiano, Rutgers has tried to instill a blue-collar, defense-first approach to winning in the Big Ten. It’s worked so far this season; the Scarlet Knights rank fifth nationally in red zone defense and have yet to allow a sack. However, Virginia Tech should pose a significantly steeper challenge than previous opponents Howard and Akron. I have never been particularly impressed with Rutgers quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, who has struggled throughout his career with accuracy down the field. Virginia Tech has the talent advantage here and the home crowd at Lane Stadium should be a difference-maker.
Miami -16.5 at South Florida (-110): Few teams have been as impressive to start the season as Miami. With 11 passing touchdowns, a completion rate of 73%, and the top QBR in the country, quarterback Cameron Ward is the current Heisman betting favorite. The defense has been dominant as well, holding opposing teams to 65.7 yards on the ground per game (12th nationally). Stopping the ground game is particularly important against South Florida. Quarterback Byrum Brown has rushed for at least 72 yards in every game this season, including 108 yards against Alabama in Week 2. Keeping Brown in the pocket is the key to the game for Miami.
This line is a little smaller than I would have expected, likely because of the Bulls’ strong showing against the Crimson Tide. Still, I anticipate this game being one-sided. According to CFB Graphs, USF’s offense ranks 114th nationally in converting on third and fourth downs, while Miami’s defense is second best among all FBS teams in getting off the field.
Georgia Tech +10.5 at Louisville (-110): It really isn’t fair for Vegas to put Jeff Brohm’s team in this position. Louisville has taken care of business against Austin Peay and Jacksonville State, but now the ranked Cardinals must play their first ACC game as a ranked double-digit favorite. Brent Key has made a name for himself in these exact situations. Since taking over in Atlanta in 2022, Key has a 5-0 record against ranked conference teams, including this season’s infamous Week 0 win over Florida State.
GT dual-threat quarterback Haynes King has played the best football of his career to start the season, leading the ACC in completions (81) and completion percentage (76.4%) while adding 158 yards on the ground. Along with talented back Jamal Haynes, the Yellow Jackets average nearly 180 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry.
I think Louisville is talented but I’m curious to see how they do against a competent and battle-tested opponent. I understand why the Cardinals are favored, but this is simply too many points. Georgia Tech is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 ACC games and likes to monopolize time of possession. I think this game will be one of the more close and entertaining games of the day.
Boston College -6.5 vs. Michigan State (-110): While coaches insist there is no such thing as a “good loss”, Boston College acquitted itself well in Columbia last Saturday. Any time you have a legitimate chance to beat a Top 10 SEC team on the road, you are doing something right.
Bill O’Brien has built a strong rushing attack that averages nearly 205 yards per game on the ground. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos has been brilliant, ranking 6th nationally in QBR with nine passing touchdowns and only two interceptions. With this being the “Red Bandana” night game for the Eagles, it will be one of the few times where Alumni Stadium provides a real home field advantage.
Meanwhile, I’m not sold on Michigan State through three games. Though the road win at Maryland was impressive, the opening week squeaker against Florida Atlantic left much to be desired. Quarterback Aidan Chiles has as many interceptions as he does touchdowns, and the Spartans are outside the top 100 in offensive success rate on both rushing plays and dropbacks. I expect Boston College to run the ball effectively and control the clock for most of this game.
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and a long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
