To quote Walt Disney, “All the adversity I’ve had in my life, all my troubles and obstacles, have strengthened me. You may not realize it when it happens, but a kick in the teeth may be the best thing in the world for you.”
After a 1-5 week, my canines are feeling a little bit sore. However, it’s important to remember that analyzing college football with limited data in the early weeks of a season is extremely difficult. Teams are still figuring out their identities and learning how to put the pieces together. Now with four weeks of information available, I hope to respond in a major way starting this weekend.
With UVA on a bye, I can focus my attention on the national games with the most value. In the spirit of resilience, I am leaning on several teams that are also in “bounce back” positions.
College Football Predictions & Best Bets
- Record last week: 1-5; Season record: 8-14
Virginia Tech +19.5 at Miami (-110): I know I am unlikely to garner any support from Sabre readers by selecting the Hokies for a second consecutive week, but I think there is value in this clash of former Big East rivals. While it may be fun to revel in Virginia Tech’s early season struggles, the numbers hint that Brent Pry’s squad is not as bad as the 2-2 record suggests.
Running back Bhayshul Tuten has carried the offense, ranking second in the conference in rushing yards. While quarterback Kyron Drones has struggled to effectively pass the ball, Tuten has rushed for 357 yards and 6 touchdowns in the last three games. The Hokies’ defense has also been solid, ranking 23rd nationally in EPA (Expected Points Added) per pass and the 20th rated pass rush grade according to Pro Football Focus.
Aside from Texas, no program has been more impressive to start the season than Miami. As long as Heisman front-runner Cam Ward is healthy, the Hurricanes are going to be a College Football Playoff contender. However, Miami also has a history of unexpectedly laying an egg in critical home games. Mario Cristobal’s team has not been tested yet this season. I don’t know if Virginia Tech has the consistent production to win this game, but I think it will be a closer matchup than the odds suggest.
NC State vs. Northern Illinois over 46 points (-110): Speaking of ACC dark horses that have underachieved their expectations, NC State has yet to play a convincing game this season. Games against Tennessee and Clemson were not competitive, but both of those teams are on track to be playoff contenders.
Head coach Dave Doeren has pulled out all the stops this week to get his team back on track. For the first time in three years, the Wolfpack did not release a depth chart ahead of Saturday’s game because every starting position was up for grabs. Perhaps the only position that is set is quarterback, where CJ Bailey was a lone bright spot for State in the loss at Clemson. In his first career start, Bailey completed 16 of 25 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown. The Wolfpack offense, which accumulated 436 total yards, looked more cohesive compared to what Grayson McCall was able to muster under center before his injury.
While Northern Illinois’ Week 2 victory in South Bend was one of the best upsets of the season, the Huskies couldn’t follow it up with a win coming off a bye on Saturday. Despite the loss, NIU was still effective in moving the ball, outgaining the Bulls by 175 yards. Thomas Hammock’s team ranks 23rd in the FBS in rushing yards and 17th in total offense this season. Facing a Wolfpack defense that has allowed 414.5 yards per game (106th nationally), I expect the Huskies to move the ball effectively again. The last three NC State games have gone over the points total, and I expect this matchup between Doeren and his former employer to be a high-scoring affair as well.
Michigan -9 vs. Minnesota (-110): The Battle for the Little Brown Jug has been decidedly one-sided in recent years, with Michigan winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. After a slow start to the season and a humbling loss to Texas in Week 2, Sherrone Moore’s squad responded to personnel changes with a huge win over USC on Saturday.
With Alex Orji at quarterback, the Wolverines leaned more heavily into Jim Harbaugh’s offensive footprint by running the ball and relying on solid defense to carry the day. Led by Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards, Michigan ran for 291 yards against an improved Trojans defensive front. This formula is exactly what Iowa used successfully against the Gophers last Saturday in a 17-point win in Minneapolis.
P.J. Fleck’s team has been a non-factor on offense this season, averaging only 335 yards per contest. Minnesota has been dreadful on passing downs, ranking 122nd in EPA per dropback. While the defense has pitched two shutouts so far this season to Rhode Island and Nevada, the EPA rating per rushing attempt is 85th in the FBS. I think Michigan’s ground and pound style will give the Gophers fits in this one, adding extra heat to Fleck’s already warm coaching seat.
Wake Forest -2.5 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette: Dave Clawson has had two weeks to prepare his team for the Ragin’ Cajuns following home losses to UVA and Mississippi. Despite the 1-2 start, there are enough offensive pieces for Wake Forest to still contend for a bowl game. Hank Bachmeier has settled into the starting quarterback job well and has yet to throw an interception. The Demon Deacons have leaned more heavily into Clawson’s “slow mesh” system this year which can be difficult for opposing teams to prepare for.
Louisiana-Lafayette has struggled against the run this season, surrendering 152.7 rushing yards per game (84th in the FBS). LL enters this game after giving up 272 yards on the ground to Tulane. Additionally, senior linebacker and the team’s leading tackler K.C. Ossai left the game with an upper-body injury and is doubtful this week. This should be another high-scoring game involving an ACC team, but I give an edge to Wake.
Texas Tech -4 vs. Cincinnati (-110): The first two weeks of the season did not go according to plan for the Red Raiders. After an opening week overtime scare against Abilene Christian, Texas Tech traveled to Pullman and lost by 3 touchdowns to the Cougars.
In the last two weeks, Joey McGuire has righted the ship. Quarterback Behren Morton leads the Big 12 in passing touchdowns with 12 and averages just under 300 passing yards per game. Senior running back Tahj Brooks has provided balance to the offense, rushing for 379 yards and 2 touchdowns in the three games he has played this season. The biggest question mark for Texas Tech is the defense, which has shown dramatic improvement as the season has progressed. Arizona State, which averaged 229 rushing yards per game entering last week’s contest, was held to 99 yards on the ground. Even though Cincinnati has a high-powered offense, I like the Red Raiders to continue their positive momentum and get a sixth consecutive home victory.
New Mexico State +9.5 vs. New Mexico (-110): There should be an air of desperation surrounding the 114th meeting of the Rio Grande Rivalry. Neither team has been very good this season, particularly on defense. Both teams’ front sevens have been vulnerable to opposing run games, with the Aggies allowing 208.8 yards per game and the Lobos fairing even worse by conceding 232 yards per game. Both teams have given up a lot of points, though Bronco Mendenhall’s team ranks second to last in the FBS, allowing nearly 45 points per game.
New Mexico State’s passing attack has been one of the worst in the country this season, though it looked improved after making the switch to Wake Forest transfer quarterback Santino Marucci last week. When you have two poor quality teams playing in a rivalry game, I take the points especially when the underdog is playing at home. The Aggies have won the last two in the series and have won 9 of their last 11 games at home.
Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and a long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.
