SabreBetrics: Home Cookin’ For Week 7 College Football Best Bets

Predictions and betting guide, best bets

Over the course of a season, betting on home teams provides no discernible advantage. Oddsmakers incorporate years of historical data into their algorithms to nullify the “edge” that bettors would get.

However, in individual games, we have all seen situations where teams really do play better at home than on the road. Does anyone think that Vanderbilt’s win over Alabama or Arkansas’ upset of Tennessee would have happened the same way if the games had been played in Tuscaloosa or Knoxville?

Conference realignment has also forced teams to travel further than they otherwise would have, leading to some unexpected results. To this point in the season, Big 10 teams traveling across at least two time zones to play road games are 1-8. Homefield advantage shouldn’t be the only thing you consider, but it can play a decisive role in determining the outcome.

This week, I am hoping to continue my hot betting streak by choosing teams that are defending their home turf. But first, what about the Wahoos at home?

Virginia’s Week 7 Preview

  • Louisville -7 at Virginia, Under 54.5

Standing at a surprising 4-1, Virginia needs just two more wins to achieve bowl eligibility as it enters this contest with conference “rival” Louisville. Of the remaining games on the schedule, this represents one of the best remaining chances for the Cavaliers to get a victory. Still, the Cardinals, nationally ranked as recently as last week, should present a difficult challenge for Tony Elliott’s team.

Louisville has a dynamic offense capable of scoring a lot of points. Led by sixth year quarterback Tyler Shough, the Cardinals have the 14th rated passing attack nationally, averaging aerial 303.4 yards per game. This may present a problem for Virginia’s secondary which currently ranks 15th in the ACC in passing yards allowed. Jeff Brohm has also constructed a strong defense, particularly against the run. Louisville has only allowed 22 total points in the second half of games this season and ranks 7th in the FBS in success rate on defending the run.

Given these numbers, I think UVA will need to lean on the arm of Anthony Colandrea to effectively move the ball. The Cardinals’ success rate against designed drop backs is considerably worse (103rd), so there should be room for Virginia to air it out. Unfortunately, injuries to wideouts Chris Tyree and Trell Davis (who is listed as day-to-day) mean that the Cavaliers are thin at this critical position.

I think this will be a competitive game and Louisville has only covered one out of five trips to Charlottesville. Still, I worry about the Cardinals’ explosive offense and whether the UVA secondary can keep up. Every time I have picked against the Cavaliers this season, they have played better than expected. Let’s hope I can keep that streak going again this week. Cardinals win 31-21.

College Football Predictions & Best Bets

  • Record last week: 5-0; Season record: 14-19

Maryland -10 vs. Northwestern (-120): Every week, there are a slew of games where I agonize about which side to bet on because there are not clear differences between the teams. Take the highly anticipated Ohio State-Oregon game this weekend. Both teams are stacked with NFL-ready talent on offenses that are capable of scoring points in bunches. The line is only three points, so the Vegas sportsbooks with their fancy algorithms expect it to be a close one. It’s a tough call!

Well, this Big 10 match-up isn’t like that at all. Maryland is competent on both sides of the ball but excels in the passing game. The Terrapins rank 12th nationally in passing yards per game and wideout Tai Felton has the sixth most receiving yards. This offense averages 33.4 points per game and has scored at least 24 points in every game this season.

On the other sideline, Northwestern has one of the worst offenses in college football. The Wildcats rank 120th in the FBS in points scored, averaging only 18.6 points per game. They convert fewer than 30% of their third down attempts (123rd nationally) and have the worst offensive success rate of any Power 4 team. The Northwestern defense isn’t much better, allowing 254.2 passing yards per game. Maryland quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. should have a career day on Friday night in College Park. Don’t overthink this one.

USC +5 vs. Penn State (-110): This game will add another data point to the “Big 10 road team traveling across time zones” statistic I referenced in the opening. It’s also a pretty important contest for the conference title race. Thus far, Lincoln Riley’s team has looked great at home and on neutral fields, but has struggled in true road games.

Quarterback Miller Moss has been consistently solid, throwing for at least 200 yards in every game this season and completing nearly 65% of his passes. The matchup between the Nittany Lions’ 4th ranked run defense and the Trojans’ ground game which has the 6th ranked success rate (49.3%) on rushing attempts should be fascinating to watch.

Penn State has very strong underlying metrics on both sides of the ball, but the offense has shown a tendency to stagnate at times this season. PSU was held scoreless for the first 23 minutes against a mediocre UCLA team last Saturday and could only muster one touchdown in the first half against Illinois. The Nittany Lions defense is very strong, but they have yet to face an offense as dynamic as Lincoln Riley’s. In a critical game for Riley’s tenure in Los Angeles, I’ll take the points.

Eastern Michigan +3 vs. Miami (OH) (-110): I am going to fade the RedHawks for a second consecutive MAC game. As I explained last week, they are dreadful on offense. The 30-20 loss at Toledo – with only 54 yards gained on the ground – was one of the stronger offensive showings for Miami this season. Chuck Martin’s team now ranks 132nd in the FBS in net points per drive and 133rd in points per game (13.6).

Instead of picking a team that can’t score, choose Eastern Michigan who has averaged 41.7 points over the last three games. EMU is one of the best teams in the country in protecting the football; quarterback Cole Snyder has yet to throw an interception this season through five games. The running game, which struggled early in the season, has become a strength with the emergence of NC State transfer Delbert Mimms III in the backfield. Coming off a career high performance with 145 yards and 2 touchdowns, Mimms provides the Eagles with increased offensive balance and reduces the burden on Snyder who has already been sacked 15 times this year. Given the underlying statistics, I think the wrong team is favored here.

Central Florida -3 vs. Cincinnati (-110): This selection is conditional on the game taking place as scheduled in Orlando which is not guaranteed given the arrival of Hurricane Milton. However, if FBC Mortgage Stadium is available, I think there is value with the Knights in a bounce-back spot after tough losses against Colorado and Florida.

Gus Malzahn’s team still has one of the best rushing attacks in the country, averaging 282.4 yards per game on the ground (4th in the FBS) and scoring more than 34 points per game. According to College Football Insiders, UCF ranks first in the FBS in success rate on rushing plays and is fourth in limiting the success rate when the opposition runs the ball.

Contrast these numbers to Cincinnati, who has struggled mightily against the run this season. The Bearcats have conceded an average of 158.6 rushing yards per game and nearly 5 yards per rushing attempt. Cincinnati does have an effective passing attack with quarterback Brendan Sorsby under center, and I expect this to be a high-scoring game. However, over the course of 60 minutes, I expect UCF’s ground game to grind down the Bearcats’ defense and dominate the time of possession.

West Virginia +3 vs. Iowa State (-110): If Iowa State can win on the road this weekend, it would be the first 6-0 start for the program since 1938. Matt Campbell’s squad has ascended the Big 12 standings in large part because of its defense. The Cyclones boast the No. 6 scoring defense, allowing only 10 points per game. While I am not denying the defensive talent in Ames, I do question the quality of the opposition. Only the victory at rival Iowa – on a last second field goal – can be considered a quality win.

Iowa State has yet to face an offense as potent as West Virginia. In a dominant performance in Stillwater last Saturday, the Mountaineers ran the ball 65 times for 389 yards and managed to possess the ball for nearly 43 minutes. Oklahoma State, a preseason favorite to win the conference, was outgained by 331 yards and had 20 fewer first downs. West Virginia didn’t need quarterback Garrett Greene to do much in this contest, but he certainly has the tools and experience to throw the ball if necessary. Greene ranks 19th in the country in QBR and is also one of the leading rushers on the team. Given how well Neal Brown’s team is playing right now, I have a hard time seeing this team lose in Morgantown on Saturday evening.

Michael McGraw is a Virginia graduate and a long-time fan of The Sabre. The opinions expressed in this article are not directly associated with The Sabre and are intended for recreational use only. Sports betting should be a fun activity, not a stressful one. Please do not bet more than you can afford to lose.