Kam Butler and the Virginia defense face a tough North Carolina running game and offense. ~ Photo by Kris Wright/TheSabre.com
When Virginia and North Carolina meet up at Scott Stadium on Saturday for the latest edition of the South’s Oldest Rivalry, it figures to be a key game for either team’s postseason hopes.
UVA enters the game at 4-3 with this home game against Carolina and a Nov. 23 home game against current ACC co-leader SMU as the only remaining contests in Charlottesville. The Hoos also must travel to Pittsburgh, another conference co-leader at this moment, Notre Dame, and Virginia Tech. Somewhere in that group, the Cavaliers likely need to find two wins to earn a bowl spot. Currently on a two-game losing streak, this looks like a big spot on the schedule for those hopes and possibly for the long-term future of the Tony Elliott era.
UNC, meanwhile, sits at 3-4 entering this contest. The Tar Heels likely need to find three wins among Virginia, Florida State, Wake Forest, Boston College, and NC State. That’s not necessarily a daunting gauntlet on paper and Carolina certainly would love to snap its current four-game losing streak to get back on track.
So what does the matchup look like for Virginia and North Carolina? Let’s take a quick-hitting look through lists of three.
3 Players To Watch
UNC running back Omarion Hampton (6’0”, 220), No. 28: The junior comes into this week’s game on the doorstep of a 1,000-yard season before the end of October. He has 155 carries for 901 yards and 7 touchdowns. He’s hit 100 yards in six of seven games this season and is the only player in Carolina history to post 100 yard rushing in six games of a single season more than once – he did that seven times last season too on the way to 1,504 yards and 15 TDs.
UNC linebacker Power Echols (6’0”, 225), No. 23: The Tar Heels’ leading tackler with 48 on the season, the senior is coming off a big game against Georgia Tech where he had 12 in the game. He’s now up to 278 career tackles for the UNC. Echols also has 3 pass breakups and a fumble recovery this season.
Virginia safety Antonio Clary (6’0”, 203), No. 0: After missing the last two games with an injury, UVA coach Tony Elliott said the Hoos are hopeful that Clary can return this week. That would be a big boost after he averaged 9.6 tackles per game in the first five contests of the season. Even with sitting out two games, Clary still ranks second on the team in tackles and he would be a key element to trying to slow down Hampton in the running game.
3 Trends To Know
North Carolina has multiple sacks in five of seven games, but no sacks in October: The Tar Heels enter the final game of the month with 0 sacks in two games against Pittburgh and Georgia Tech. They’ll be hoping to get back on track after a bye week. For the season, the defense has 15 sacks to rank 53rd (tie) nationally. Defensive tackle Jahvaree Ritzie produce 5 of those sacks in the first two weeks of the season.
Virginia has an interception in four straight games: After starting the season without many takeaways, the Hoos have pulled in an interception in four straight games. Antonio Clary started the trend against Coastal Carolina. Chico Bennett Jr. and Kendren Smith each had a pick against Boston College, while Ethan Minter made an INT against Louisville. Last week, Kam Robinson joined the string even though Clemson’s Cade Klubnik only had 2 INTs all season prior to the matchup. UNC starting QB Jacolby Criswell has only 3 INTs in six games.
Virginia struggles in red zone at home: Entering this week’s game, UVA ranks last nationally among Football Bowl Subdivision teams for red zone touchdown percentage at home. It’s not close. The Hoos have scored touchdown on 22.22% of their home red zone possessions (4 in 18 trips) a full 11% behind UCLA at 33.33%. The next lowest percentage in the ACC belongs to NC State and Florida State, both with 50.0% at home this season.
3 Virginia Predictions
UVA scores its first third quarter touchdown: More on this below, but Virginia has struggled to put up points in the third quarter. In the four ACC games, the first drive of the third quarter has gone interception, turnover on downs, punt, punt. I think the Hoos turn it around this week with a touchdown on their first drive of the quarter and at least 10 points in the third.
Will Bettridge and Noah Burnette both make a long field goal: The two field goal kickers in this one both rank in the top 25 nationally for field goals made. Bettridge has 14 makes for UVA (tied for 5th) and Burnette has 11 for UNC (tied for 21st). Bettridge’s season long is 47 yards against Coastal Carolina, while Burnett hit a 52-yarder in the opener against Minnesota. I think they both make a kick of 35+ yards in this matchup.
Virginia receiver Chris Tyree scores his first Cavalier touchdown: Tyree came into the schedule with some lingering preseason injury issues and never really got going before sitting out two games. Last week in his return, he made 4 catches for 23 yards. The Tar Heels enter the game ranked 100th nationally in pass defense. I think Tyree finally gets his long-awaited touchdown this week.
3 Keys To The Game
Start Each Half Better: While UVA led briefly in the second quarter at Clemson, the trend of slow starts continued. The Hoos had 3 points in the first quarter, the fourth time the offense produced a field goal or less in the opening quarter in five games against power conference teams this season. They went on to have 10 first half points, meaning the offense has scored 13 or fewer points in the first half in four of the last five games. The start of the second half doesn’t look much better. Virginia has a total of 16 points in the third quarter this season with 0 points in five of the seven games.
No Tight End Gashing: Virginia’s pass defense currently ranks 121st out of 134 FBS teams at 272.6 yards per game. The last two weeks have shown some vulnerability within that against capable tight ends. Louisville’s X had the go-ahead touchdown catch late in the Cards’ win. Clemson’s tight ends teamed up for a big day last week as Olsen Patt-Henry made 2 catches for 51 yards and 2 TDs while Jake Briningstool made 5 catches for 38 yards. Enter North Carolina tight end Bryson Nesbit. He has 13 career touchdown catches, including 3 TDs this season as part of 24 receptions for 264 yards. John Copenhaver also has 18 catches for 193 yards and 3 touchdowns at tight end.
Avoid A Return Problem: North Carolina has two punt returns for touchdowns this season, one against JMU and one against Georgia Tech. Alijah Huzzie went 69 yards against GT for his second career punt return touchdown. Carolina ranks 9th (tie) nationally with four returns of 20+ yards. The Heels also have four kickoff returns of 30+ yards to rank 5th (tie) nationally in that category. While UVA has done well in coverage so far, ranking 10th (tie) by allowing only 2.2 yards per punt return and 6th by allowing only 13.33 yards per kickoff return, those units need to keep up the good work this week.
3 Virginia Picks
Offensive Player Of The Game: Receiver Malachi Fields keeps his big season going with 100+ yards and at least 1 touchdown.
Defensive Player Of The Game: Defensive end Kameron Butler has 26 tackles with 2 sacks this season. This feels like the spot for a big game so let’s say 5 tackles with 2 sacks as the pick.
Winner: North Carolina has stumbled to four straight losses and the defense allows 30.4 points per game (tied for 107th nationally). Charlottesville hasn’t always been a great place for Mack Brown teams either. On the other hand, so far in the Tony Elliott era, the Cavaliers haven’t stepped up big in ‘opportunity’ home games. This fits that description. Here’s hoping that changes. The Hoos win at home 38-24. (Season to date: 5-2)