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Joined: 9/29/13 Posts: 17928
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Yes, the Powerball is around there today, too...

Doesn't mean he gonna win either. Expected value of a contract can be calculated by salary X the odds of that salary happening. There hasn't ever been a $400 million contract, so let's drop that for now... There were about 8 MLB contracts of over $200 million. That's 7 players (A-Rod twice) of the 20,000 that ever made the MLB... To cut out all those old guys who didn't make anything, even taking it to an annual calculation... There are 8000 total minor league/mlb players per year... That's 1200 guys on MLB rosters and another nearly 7k that aren't... Every year... And 7 dudes (1 dude twice) ever got paid over $200 million. But 22 of the NFL starting QBs make over $10 million a year, and the only ones that don't are on rookie deals and will soon enough if they make it.

So all that noise about non guaranteed contracts and short careers in the NFL are true in general, but not when talking about a starting caliber QB. Even if Kyler has a 50/50 chance of making it as a starting QB in the NFL, that's a MUCH greater chance of a big contract than the 50/50 chance he has JUST to make an MLB roster going forward, let alone make it well enough to get a big contract. The average MLB contract is $4 million a year. The average starting QB contract is over $10 million. The average 2nd contract for a starting QB now is around $20 million a year. Tyrod Taylor, Josh McCown, Blake Bortles, Andy Dalton and Ryan Tannehill bring up the REAR of NFL QBs on 2nd contracts and all make between $10 million and $20 million a year. And each of their teams has already ditched them or wants to ditch them but have to wait (other than McCown who is a backup) because they had $10s of millions in guarantees. Pretty much every starting QB is going to get at least $50 to $75 million in guarantees and round out their $100 million+ when all is said and done. And that's on 5 year deals. Those $200 million MLB deals are all like 10 years, and again, there were only a handful of them.

So all the MLB is better arguments might be true for position players in the NFL. But not for QBs. Especially not one who is expected to be a top 10-15 pick, maybe even higher.

(In response to this post by

Posted: 02/11/2019 at 3:41PM


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Current Thread:
  Skins waiting for Perkins * ** -- T Room Cav 02/12/2019 8:08PM
  Cardinals need to trade the #1 Pick -- rd280z 02/13/2019 09:31AM
  Funny you should mention that... -- YuvaY 02/12/2019 1:53PM
  It's like a fly in your Chardonnay. ** -- jdubforwahoowa 02/12/2019 4:07PM
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  Denver Bronco book it ** -- Charleston Cav 02/11/2019 5:19PM
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  And here's the empirical evidence -- GtownHoo 02/12/2019 08:50AM
  The Manziell comparison is laughable -- GtownHoo 02/12/2019 07:59AM
  You’ve made some great points. -- HoosGuy 02/12/2019 08:08AM
  Plus let me guess... Murray gets a 20mm -- GtownHoo 02/12/2019 08:03AM
  Yep, totally get the long term health argument -- GtownHoo 02/11/2019 4:05PM
  Im with u ** -- GtownHoo 02/11/2019 5:52PM
  Actually, much more income potentially ** -- 02/11/2019 3:22PM
  Sure there is more money initially in the NFL -- hoolu 02/11/2019 2:10PM
  Not unless you are Mike Trout. ** -- Yosemite Sam 02/12/2019 10:59AM
  Yes, the Powerball is around there today, too... -- GtownHoo 02/11/2019 3:41PM
  Yea, QBs are a separate story. ** -- 02/11/2019 4:09PM
  He should go to the NBA :) -- Zhoo 02/11/2019 3:54PM
  He has at least 2inches on Spud ;) ** -- Zhoo 02/11/2019 4:07PM
  That's not what she said! ** -- Spudnut 02/12/2019 06:06AM
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  Big “if” though. Far from a lock. ** -- EHoo 02/11/2019 2:17PM

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