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Hit rate for first 2 rounds of MLB drafts is 55%

just to make the league, let alone be any good. So that's a 55% hit rate to make the MLB average of $4 million a year, which doesn't start until about 7-10 years after being drafted (average player makes it to MLB after 4-6 years in minors living off his signing bonus and is under team control for 3 years - that's 7 to 9 years right there, then 1 nice arbitration year salary if you're GOOD, then finally you become a UFA... 8 to 10 years after being drafted). So the average 1st or 2nd rounder has a 55% chance to make it to the league... Then waits until he's nearly 30 before getting to free agency. Yes, that sounds like a much better chance than making 1 2nd contract as a QB (again 8 out of 11 QBs in drafts 2014-2016 will end up making somewhere between $50 million and over $100 million, and they're all not great QBs).

Hit rate from 2014-2016 on NFL QBs in the first 2 rounds of the draft? 8 out of 11 made TONS of money and still counting. They're all hitting their 2nd contracts now, while none of their peers from the 2015 MLB draft have even hit arbitration yet. Only 3 of them didn't make it, and even some of those will have earned as much or more as their failed MLB counterparts (who failed at a much higher level). The BEST players from that 2015 draft are making $600k right now. And out of the top 20 draft picks, there are only 2-3 all stars so far... And it takes being an MLB all star to match even mediocre QB money.

It's one thing if you're talking a regular NFL position vs. MLB. Then I would understand the argument. But QBs in the first 2 rounds have a higher hit rate of at least staying in the league, and even the mediocre backups make MLB average money or more.

(In response to this post by Maupin233)

Posted: 02/12/2019 at 09:13AM


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Current Thread:
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