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Joined: 10/7/99 Posts: 5557
Likes: 609

Those people should have paid more attention in Algebra II

Don't take my word for it.

Using whatever method you'd like (hospital beds, mortality rate, you decide), pick the number of infections in the US that would be a giant problem. How many would make you say 'Wow, we should have stayed home'.

Now google the equation for the nth term of a geometric series. Looking at growth over the past few days, r = 1.3 is being pretty optimistic (we've had some 1.4 days). Now, to be more optimistic, let's heal everybody who had it up till yesterday and start fresh today, let a1 = just the new cases. So that's 8000.

Solve for n.

Now, what you do with that info is up to you. Perhaps keep that n value and plug in what you think r will be if we try to go back to business as usual. Keep in mind that the 1.3 is when we are trying pretty damn hard. Maybe make a table of r values vs.14 day infection totals.

Let's ignore things like what will happen to the mortality rate when the hospitals run out of ventilators or doctors willing to work without proper protective equipment the Falwell approach falls apart in days just in terms of people staying home because they are sick (or were exposed to somebody who was sick) and taking time off to attend funerals.

[Post edited by CavMan1 at 03/24/2020 8:26PM]

(In response to this post by UVAFan2626)

Posted: 03/24/2020 at 6:05PM


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