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Houston Hoo

Joined: 1/4/01 Posts: 872
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I'm not going to go into detail (I'm mostly here to forget the real world)

But unless you and I are looking at different data (entirely possible in this crazy moment), I don't put a ton of stock in the "flu curves." The problem is with the way we count for the flu, which as I understand it is rarely based upon actual positive influenza tests, but rather is based mostly upon patients reporting an "influenza-like illness" (and as an aside, there is very little reason to think that hypothetical earlier cases of COVID-19 would have been caught by healthcare professionals by virtue of simple symptom presentation--even in patients in severe distress). Again, no time or desire to go into the details now, and I'm certainly not saying that COVID-19 HAS been in the U.S. in force longer than media reports suggest. But I don't think the flu curves are even remotely dispositive (again, at least the ones I have seen).

This is why federal health officials have begun pushing publicly for serology-based tests for COVID-19 antibodies--to get a better handle on disease penetration levels throughout U.S. society. For what it's worth, the most powerful evidence I have yet seen for the very scary "relatively few people have had it thus far" hypothesis (by no means perfect, but of much higher quality than the flu curve data I've looked at) is the open-source genome sequencing data available at Nextrain (link below). Again, I don't think it answers the question fully for a variety of reasons, and I remain cautiously optimistic that some pockets of the country have already experienced outbreaks that swept through largely unnoticed as noise in the January/early February cold/flu season. I could definitely be wrong, though, and the Nextstrain data provide some real support for the idea that we are still on the very front end of the curve. I'm just not sure we can get there from the seasonal illness reporting curves.


(In response to this post by confuzionrains)

Link: Nextstrain

Posted: 03/27/2020 at 4:34PM


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Current Thread:
Doris Burke has tested positive for Coronavirus. ** -- hooshouse 03/27/2020 3:08PM
  Get well Doris!!!! We love you!!! ** -- Skeets 03/27/2020 5:20PM
  Okay Coronavirus. This is the last straw. ** -- EEcavalier 03/27/2020 4:57PM
  She has a bad case of lovin' you ** -- 3 U Circle 03/27/2020 5:04PM
  Hope she don't have dat asthma doe... ** -- ronoB 03/27/2020 3:23PM
  That’s gold Jerry! Gold! ** -- JMHoo 03/27/2020 4:17PM
  It's just a matter of time for us all, unfortunately -- hooincarolina 03/27/2020 3:18PM
  Well I am not a health care provider and please -- sfb123 03/27/2020 4:57PM
  Forgive me for asking a "stupid" question -- Beachwahoo 03/27/2020 4:07PM
  Hard to really understand the contagiousness -- HooStu 03/27/2020 4:01PM
  Sample size of one is not science -- NorthernExposure 03/27/2020 5:38PM
  So you got a negative test? -- Toolie92 03/27/2020 6:30PM
  Negative test -- HooStu 03/27/2020 7:12PM
  I was open to this theory, but have decided against it -- confuzionrains 03/27/2020 4:00PM
  Except that the Covid curve.... -- The Hook 03/27/2020 9:12PM
  Good point ** -- BRU Hoo 03/27/2020 7:33PM
  Totally agree ** -- BRU Hoo 03/27/2020 7:30PM
  You are assuming.... -- The Hook 03/27/2020 9:13PM
  The data used by Nextstrain.... -- The Hook 03/27/2020 9:21PM
  A lot. A whole lot ** -- Wahoos8181 03/27/2020 3:36PM

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