The internet home for Hoos anywhere and everywhere.

Virginia Mens Basketball Board

confuzionrains

Joined: 1/4/01 Posts: 21931
Likes: 23489


If you fold a piece of paper 42 times, you can reach the moon


That's the frightening power of exponential growth.

It's highly unlikely that COVID-19 could've circulated for 42 days or more without showing up on the radar in some, highly significant way, especially in an environment where nothing was being done to hinder its spread.

Dec and Jan are just way too early. I think mid-February is probably the earliest that I can accept as a possible start date for the actual arrival of COVID-19 on US soil.

3 weeks of unchecked exponential growth would leave you at over 1 million undetected cases of COVID-19, which seems highly unlikely. 4 weeks would leave you at over 10 million undetected cases. Highly unlikely that it could've spread so widely for so long without being noticed in some way, especially when we were already aware of its existence.

(In response to this post by BRU Hoo)

Posted: 03/27/2020 at 5:30PM



+0

Insert a Link

Enter the title of the link here:


Enter the full web address of the link here -- include the "http://" part:


Current Thread:
 
  
Doris Burke has tested positive for Coronavirus. ** -- hooshouse 03/27/2020 3:08PM
  Get well Doris!!!! We love you!!! ** -- Skeets 03/27/2020 5:20PM
  Okay Coronavirus. This is the last straw. ** -- EEcavalier 03/27/2020 4:57PM
  She has a bad case of lovin' you ** -- 3 U Circle 03/27/2020 5:04PM
  Hope she don't have dat asthma doe... ** -- ronoB 03/27/2020 3:23PM
  That’s gold Jerry! Gold! ** -- JMHoo 03/27/2020 4:17PM
  It's just a matter of time for us all, unfortunately -- hooincarolina 03/27/2020 3:18PM
  Well I am not a health care provider and please -- sfb123 03/27/2020 4:57PM
  Forgive me for asking a "stupid" question -- Beachwahoo 03/27/2020 4:07PM
  Hard to really understand the contagiousness -- HooStu 03/27/2020 4:01PM
  Sample size of one is not science -- NorthernExposure 03/27/2020 5:38PM
  So you got a negative test? -- Toolie92 03/27/2020 6:30PM
  Negative test -- HooStu 03/27/2020 7:12PM
  I was open to this theory, but have decided against it -- confuzionrains 03/27/2020 4:00PM
  Except that the Covid curve.... -- The Hook 03/27/2020 9:12PM
  Good point ** -- BRU Hoo 03/27/2020 7:33PM
  Totally agree ** -- BRU Hoo 03/27/2020 7:30PM
  You are assuming.... -- The Hook 03/27/2020 9:13PM
  The data used by Nextstrain.... -- The Hook 03/27/2020 9:21PM
  A lot. A whole lot ** -- Wahoos8181 03/27/2020 3:36PM

Get the Sabre Edge!

Subscribe to TheSabre.com!
vm314