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The Corner


Joined: 3/28/09 Posts: 8280
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I’m looking at the data and the measures in place to stop the spread

The past 3 days death totals in the US were 400, 525, and 363. These numbers are influenced by previous weeks of no restrictions. 50 consecutive days of 500 deaths starting now would equal 25,000 deaths and would fall way short of the 100,000 mark. I’m looking at historical data from previous pandemics and this one. The peak is pretty close and for that reason it doesn’t seem realistic to hit those kinds of numbers. Models have huge flaws because when the input is faulty, the output is faulty. They take a snap shot in time and say if this continues to happen then this will happen. Well duh. But the thing is reality doesn’t usually play out like that. I’d be willing to bet that when the next 2 weeks of data are analyzed the projections of deaths will drop again. First the CDC put out that messages about millions possibly dying (I think it was the CDC), now Fauci says 100-200k. I still don’t believe it based on the numbers. Things would have to get substantially worse and with current restrictions I just don’t see it happening

(In response to this post by THECZAR)

Posted: 03/30/2020 at 3:20PM


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