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Joined: 3/28/09 Posts: 8137
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Thanks for posting. That article basically summarizes everything I have

felt for weeks now. If infection rates in most towns did not take off with large supermarkets, Lowe’s, etc being visited all the time then it seems unrealistic that opening small businesses would have a greater impact on raising the infection rate compared to large stores being open. Keep the big ones open and close the small ones? Makes no sense.

I like what the author said about the virus rising and falling due to its own “dynamics” as opposed to the lockdown. Some people have been screaming the only reason the rates are declining are because of lockdowns...if that’s true then why do flus, colds, and pneumonia see a rise, spike, and fall of cases each year with no intervention? Surely the infection rate of those deadly diseases should continue to grow exponentially each year since we never lock down for those. But they don’t. And it can’t be attributed to natural immunity solely because upwards of 60 million flu cases happen each year in the US, so obviously we really aren’t very immune to it at all. Probably because the strains change a lot.

But I agree with the premise of the article and I hope governors stop dragging their feet on reopenings because in most of the country (basically everyone outside of the northeast) the cure has become worse than the virus itself.

As a side note, outside of NY/NJ/CT/MA there have been roughly 47k deaths. In 2018 there were 51k flu deaths in the US outside of those 4 states. The response in rural America has been devastating and disproportionate to the threat we face.

(In response to this post by nyhoo)

Posted: 05/22/2020 at 12:29PM


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Current Thread:
  And I think he is full of crap -- Faz d. Hoo 05/22/2020 1:48PM
  How about this line: -- Haney 05/22/2020 1:34PM
  Does the JPM report define lockdown? -- Haney 05/22/2020 1:09PM
  Covid seems to be happily thriving in Brazil and its heat. -- NaturalMysticHoo 05/22/2020 1:36PM
  It's still hot in Brazil for this analysis. -- NaturalMysticHoo 05/22/2020 1:51PM
  The CDC is just spit balling it. So is everyone else. -- hooincarolina 05/22/2020 12:41PM
  Point taken ** -- UVALAX121 05/22/2020 2:25PM
  Ha! That's funny ** -- nyhoo 05/22/2020 12:23PM
  Here's a concurring epidemiology opinion -- 111shamrock 05/22/2020 12:10PM
  My concerns with the artcile/study -- Zhoo 05/22/2020 12:28PM
  Models can be flawed.... -- Zhoo 05/22/2020 12:37PM
  Oh I agree completely. -- 111shamrock 05/22/2020 1:12PM
  Education on risk lowering behavior has to be a factor -- VignetteHoo 05/22/2020 11:47AM

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