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Toolie92

Joined: 3/5/15 Posts: 10663
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Imperial College of London Covid model now updated to include US states


This is a pretty big deal I think. Their model has been one of the best respected in the world at trying to estimate the true level of infections and deaths rather than just trying to match the officially reported values. Until now it was only publishing modeling results on a dozen or so European countries.

Hopefully this puts the awful IHME model out of its misery. All their data and algorithms are open-source as well.

I am not fully endorsing these results, just saying this is one of the best models available on the web. I think there is still a pretty obvious time-lag in their Rt figures that does not correspond with the drops in mobility as recorded in cell phones, etc. Actual mobility seemed to drop significantly in Virginia when most schools closed after March 13, while the ICL model shows Rt not dropping noticeably until 10 days later. Maybe that is just the incubation delay and the Rt they show is time-synced to when cases get reported vs. when infections occur.




Link: Covid19 model for US States


Posted: 05/22/2020 at 3:55PM



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Current Thread:
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