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Joined: 3/5/15 Posts: 10663
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Imperial College of London Covid model now updated to include US states

This is a pretty big deal I think. Their model has been one of the best respected in the world at trying to estimate the true level of infections and deaths rather than just trying to match the officially reported values. Until now it was only publishing modeling results on a dozen or so European countries.

Hopefully this puts the awful IHME model out of its misery. All their data and algorithms are open-source as well.

I am not fully endorsing these results, just saying this is one of the best models available on the web. I think there is still a pretty obvious time-lag in their Rt figures that does not correspond with the drops in mobility as recorded in cell phones, etc. Actual mobility seemed to drop significantly in Virginia when most schools closed after March 13, while the ICL model shows Rt not dropping noticeably until 10 days later. Maybe that is just the incubation delay and the Rt they show is time-synced to when cases get reported vs. when infections occur.

Link: Covid19 model for US States

Posted: 05/22/2020 at 3:55PM


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Current Thread:
  The model that predicted 2M US deaths? -- 111shamrock 05/22/2020 9:47PM
  I hope those models are wrong. They look grim ** -- hooincarolina 05/22/2020 5:32PM
  I doubt any of these models have had proper V&V. -- The Hook 05/23/2020 5:31PM
  Modeling depends on data, and data depends in part on testing -- NorthernExposure 05/22/2020 5:06PM
  God forbid there be any positive news. ** -- hooincarolina 05/22/2020 7:45PM
  Also true... ** -- Faz d. Hoo 05/22/2020 7:32PM
  140 dollars a test x 300,000 tests a day= -- hooincarolina 05/22/2020 7:12PM
  Lol - we can reproduce more people. wth? -- Hoodlum 05/22/2020 7:49PM
  You can’t continuously print more money -- hooincarolina 05/22/2020 7:44PM
  Yeah, here's one such story -- chicken 05/22/2020 4:31PM
  Then the peers were found wrong. ** -- 05/22/2020 10:40PM
  Don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger ** -- Faz d. Hoo 05/22/2020 4:59PM
  I know ** -- Toolie92 05/22/2020 5:03PM
  Your story is about the IHME model ** -- Toolie92 05/22/2020 4:34PM

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