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The Hook

Joined: 8/14/98 Posts: 29772
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I doubt any of these models have had proper V&V.

"Verification and Validation". Especially, since validation is impossible. We already know the IHME model wasn't properly verified by a long shot.

Even with a properly V&V'd model, I've yet to see a model of a complex system that was usable for anything more than comparative studies. Using models of complex systems for absolute predictive outcomes make me laugh.

I spent a decade building models/simulations of complex communications systems and protocols. These are systems that are about as deterministic as you can get, with very little assumption or RAND (random number generation for statistic-based behavior) built into the models. Even then, we wouldn't use them as tools for absolute predictive outcome.

The amount of assumption and RAND in these models based on zero previous data without any way to validate them make them completely useless... even if only utilizing them for comparative outcomes.

(In response to this post by Faz d. Hoo)

Posted: 05/23/2020 at 5:31PM


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Current Thread:
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  I hope those models are wrong. They look grim ** -- hooincarolina 05/22/2020 5:32PM
  I doubt any of these models have had proper V&V. -- The Hook 05/23/2020 5:31PM
  Modeling depends on data, and data depends in part on testing -- NorthernExposure 05/22/2020 5:06PM
  God forbid there be any positive news. ** -- hooincarolina 05/22/2020 7:45PM
  Also true... ** -- Faz d. Hoo 05/22/2020 7:32PM
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  Then the peers were found wrong. ** -- 05/22/2020 10:40PM
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  I know ** -- Toolie92 05/22/2020 5:03PM
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