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Joined: 6/18/08 Posts: 10288
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The slightest uptick at that point

On June 12 there were about 1000 more cases than the previous Friday. The next few days had 2 or 3000 more cases than their previous week counterpart. The real jumps began June 16 - 8500 more cases than the previous Tuesday.

Weekly is better, though. The week of 7-13 June: 138,000 cases. The next week, 14-20 June: 176,000 cases. Expect a three-week delay. That means deaths should still go down this week, which ends on July 4 and is three weeks after the low case week. So far so good on that.

It's the week of 5-11 July that I think we'll really see the effect of the increase in cases. However, I think it'll be nowhere near as severe as the first go-round. One reason is we're finding more cases than we used to, so we're not having people just show up at the hospital and dying a little later, never having been tested. Another is the likelihood that this is a younger crowd (though I have no numbers on that.) A third is that we're certainly better at treating the patients. A fourth is the potential that the virus has mutated, which some scientists have said they believe has happened. I don't have any way of telling how much each factor is worth.

[Post edited by MaizeAndBlueWahoo at 06/29/2020 9:55PM]

(In response to this post by xxWahooWAxx)

Posted: 06/29/2020 at 9:53PM


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Current Thread:
Non political covid 19 question -- jazzhoo 06/29/2020 7:21PM
  Certainly the first two are factors -- Wahoos79 06/29/2020 9:37PM
  Bite your tongue. -- BocaHoo91 06/30/2020 06:49AM
  All three basically -- CMUHoo 06/29/2020 7:29PM

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