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00 Hoo

Joined: 8/16/98 Posts: 4807
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My hunch is that the lag in deaths will be longer than 2-3 weeks.


It took longer for cases to increase than I had expected after states started opening up, but in retrospect, it makes sense.

The first group to get out & about and be less careful with distancing/masking/etc. was more likely to be young and healthy people - who, when they got infected could often be asymptomatic or have mild symptoms not worth even getting tested for.  Over time, as more people started getting out & about and not being super careful, there have started to be more and more "noticeable" cases, where the symptoms are strong enough to get tested and we see that in the case numbers.

But my hunch is that older and higher risk folks have been largely better at trying to protect themselves, which would mean the current spikes in cases probably still don't include near as many people at risk for more severe illness and death.  However, as time goes on, those higher risk folks can only stay but so isolated/can only be but so careful:

1. Some higher risk people have to go to work and can't stay home, or live with family members who have to go to work and can't stay home; some are in multi-generational families living together, etc.  (While that is not new, the virus still hasn't spread everywhere, so we're currently only seeing the effect on people who can't avoid the virus in places where the virus has already made its mark.)

2. Some higher risk people can stay home, but are too misinformed or too stupid to do so, and also don't distance and wear masks when out.  Sadly, I think this is a higher portion of the population than I would have hoped.

3. Even for the higher risk people who are being super careful, it's impossible to stay 100% quarantined.  They still have to eat, buy toilet paper, etc.  The more widespread the virus is in the general population, the more likely it is this group will get the virus (even if still low risk because of their precautions).  This group will also still probably let their guard down a bit to get together with family members thinking they all have been careful, but we've seen how easily the virus can spread in those scenarios, as well.

If the cases we're seeing today still haven't made their way as much into the higher risk population, we won't see the spike in deaths in 2-3 weeks, but a bit later, as the virus does find its way to infiltrate these 3 groups in higher proportions than what we have now. (And even then, because of group 3, better handling of nursing homes, better understanding of treatment, etc., I don't think the increase in deaths will match what we saw in April/May - but it will still be bad.)

(In response to this post by BocaHoo91)

Posted: 06/30/2020 at 09:47AM



+1

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Current Thread:
 
  
Non political covid 19 question -- jazzhoo 06/29/2020 7:21PM
  Certainly the first two are factors -- Wahoos79 06/29/2020 9:37PM
  Bite your tongue. -- BocaHoo91 06/30/2020 06:49AM
  All three basically -- CMUHoo 06/29/2020 7:29PM

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