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Joined: 9/29/13 Posts: 1928
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It's hard to know

The purpose of broad lockdowns is to delay infections, not to prevent them. The theory was the delay would prevent non-covid deaths due to overwhelming healthcare systems. Relative to other countries, Sweden accelerated its infections. It did this without overwhelming healthcare systems, so that's a win for the Swedish model. And it's unsurprising to see other countries now closing the infection gap.

That said, healthcare systems are local. Sweden's local systems were not overwhelmed by their approach, but I have no idea how the approach would have played out in my town, or your town, or universally applied in our country. I would like to think that the Swedish model plus aggressive lockdowns in elder care facilities would be a winner everywhere. But someone with a mountain of local healthcare resource/usage data would need to confirm/deny that hypothesis.

You are certainly correct that the death gap is highly unlikely to close, given the likelihood that elder care facilities will be locked down until covid's in the rear view.

(In response to this post by Don Catfishio)

Posted: 10/16/2020 at 2:36PM


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Current Thread:
  Yes, but it's closer to Arlington than Manhattan ** -- Faz d. Hoo 10/16/2020 6:45PM
  This is the deal on Sweden -- Don Catfishio 10/16/2020 10:08AM
  It's hard to know -- 4thYear5th 10/16/2020 2:36PM
  Almost everyone. Some US states did not. ** -- 007 Hoo 10/16/2020 10:52AM
  NYC is far from homogeneous -- NJHoo 10/16/2020 12:46PM
  I think the article is a little misleading. -- Zhoo 10/16/2020 09:40AM

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