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The Corner


Joined: 08/14/1998 Posts: 12820
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I've got this weird dark optimism

that we'll be on the way to normalcy by early spring.

The last 7-day average we have is 168K cases per day (from Saturday). If we assume we're detecting 25% of infections, that means 1.4% of the U.S. population is being infected each week. That rate is growing, and we haven't even gotten to Thanksgiving and Christmas yet. That means that in the 10 weeks between now and the end of January, when the first wave of the vaccine is getting second doses, we could easily see another 15-20% of the population infected.

At our current estimate of transmission rates at about 1.2 nationally, removing that much of the population from the susceptible pool should be enough to drop transmission rates below 1 in almost every state at current behavior patterns, even before you factor in a vaccine. Every week that passes after that, more people will get vaccinated, and there will be fewer cases left to infect new people (and weather effects will also stop working against us). Exponential decay should mean that every week in February and March, not only will the transmission rate drop, but the amount the rate will drop should be accelerating.

The fine print, of course, is that this will be paid for with many thousands of deaths over the winter.

(In response to this post by MaizeAndBlueWahoo)

Posted: 11/23/2020 at 11:07AM


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Current Thread:
Follow-up on yesterday's COVID numbercrunch.... -- MaizeAndBlueWahoo 11/23/2020 08:29AM
  I've got this weird dark optimism -- darkstar 11/23/2020 11:07AM
  I think that's more or less right -- 007 Hoo 11/23/2020 12:04PM
  That is my estimate as well -- Toolie92 11/23/2020 2:58PM
  "Handled it better" is pretty subjective -- 007 Hoo 11/23/2020 12:28PM
  Rule #76: No excuses, play like a champion. ** -- FTJ Mackey 11/23/2020 12:56PM
  TWNDS ** -- jdubforwahoowa 11/23/2020 1:34PM
  That's why I was comparing Sunday to Sunday -- MaizeAndBlueWahoo 11/23/2020 10:28AM
  It’s not slowing down in VA.. 3000 cases ** -- hooville1 11/23/2020 09:54AM
  Do you mean other colleges in Virginia, or across the country? -- MaizeAndBlueWahoo 11/23/2020 09:25AM
  No argument from me there. -- Faz d. Hoo 11/23/2020 09:30AM
  This is my biggest frustration -- CMUHoo 11/23/2020 09:48AM
  Agreed on the restaurants and bars -- darkstar 11/23/2020 11:15AM

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