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Joined: 01/04/2000 Posts: 95377
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Virginia vaccination outlook using VDH numbers

The CDC actually shows about a quarter million more doses given in Virginia than the VDH website, which is weird, since they say click here for more info and it takes you to the VDH website. Even adding in the Federal Doses given, there's still a nearly 10,000 dose discrepancy from the CDC and VDH numbers. Since I am not sure if the DoD shots given are given to people included in Virginia's population stats, I'll just exclude them

Total doses given 4,344,970

People with at least one dose 2,870,658 (33.6% of population, 42.8% of 18+ population)

People fully vaccinated 1,604,477 (18.8% of population, 23.9% of 18+ population)

using numbers from the past 7 days of reporting ~50,000 new people are getting their first dose per day
~36,000 people are becoming fully vaccinated per day

At the current rate, 100% of people over 18 could have at least 1 dose by the end of June (obviously that won't happen) which would be 78.5% of the population.

100% of people over 18 could be fully vaccinated by the end of August. Although, the current rate of people fully vaccinated could increase if J&J becomes more available, plus the fact that more Moderna and Pfizer doses will be used for the second shot as a higher percentage of people will have already had 1 dose.

75% of the total population could have at least 1 dose by mid-June

75% of the total population could be fully vaccinated by mid August

Although, on the herd immunity front. I assume the herd is considered to be evenly mixed. When kids under 16 go back to school, those small herds will only be ~5% or less vaccinated (teachers). Even if the virus is unlikely to make kids under 16 sick, can that give the virus a bunch of little perti dishes to evolve in?

Posted: 04/07/2021 at 11:23AM


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Current Thread:
Virginia vaccination outlook using VDH numbers -- HOOfan_1 04/07/2021 11:23AM
  Not sure if this anecdote is relevant, but -- Faz d. Hoo 04/07/2021 12:58PM

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