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Ied

Joined: 01/02/2003 Posts: 4850
Likes: 851


Well rational choices are generally selfish. Also pretty sure you made


up the statement about 1 in 50 30 year olds being hospitalized. But lets asume it is true, what you are reporting is the probability of being hospitalized if you are tested and test positive for covid.

That isn't an infeciton hopsitalization rate, nor is it an exposure hospitalization rate. So the question that is operable here since you are measuring the certainty of getting the vaccine, is what is the probability of a 30 year old being hospitalized from covid over the next year with and without the vaccine. Your measurment leaves a lot out of the denominator.

It also of course just considers an average 30 year old not a specific 30 year old who may or may not have comorbidities.

Quick reference suggests that case fatality rate for 18-34 year olds in California is 0.07%. Now take some portion of those who also don't have comorbidities, and we are talking basically 0% CFR. You really think 2% of those people who get cases are going to the hopsital? Now take a step back and consider those who are infected but don't get tested or a step further back those who don't get it even if exposed.

We are talking basically 0%. Then they have to evalute that 0% risk against the unknowns of a new vaccine using new technology with no long standing track record. Yes it is a rational choice, particularly as more and more poeple who are vulnerable do get vaccinated. It was a rational choice before others were vaccinated, and once others are vaccinated it becomes more and more rational.
[Post edited by Ied at 05/13/2021 11:49AM]

(In response to this post by Wahoos8181)

Link: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID-19-Cases-by-Age-Group.aspx


Posted: 05/13/2021 at 11:47AM



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