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UVaFan

Joined: 11/08/1998 Posts: 6699
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Preliminary (Final) Thursday Expert Prediction for Duke Game


Ho Hum, another week another correct prediction. The never-in-doubt Louisville game brings my record to 6-0 (+/- 2 if you account for margin of polling error). Some of you may have questioned my expertise (my bona fides are beyond question) in the 3rd quarter, but as it’s been shown week in and week out (4 in weeks, 2 out weeks so far), if you fade me, you pay me. The life of an expert prognosticator can be like a roller coaster. You get on, you strap in, you scream, and then you throw up. And then move on to the next ride, which, speaking of throwing up, brings me to Duke.

Remember, this is Thursday, the model might factor in late news, but I want to give you all a chance to call your bookies (recently replaced by many State Gaming Commissions in the name of progress (tax revenue (vigorish))) (3 parenthesis- ties my record)

First and foremost, it would be a huge oversight if I failed to note that this will be the last Duke-UVa football game played during the long tenure of Duke’s basketball coach, Michael William Krzyzewski (pronounced exactly like it’s spelled). Coach Krzyzewski is an under the radar legend at Duke. Shunning all the accolades, he has built a successful program largely ignored by the media. Coach Krzyzewski insists on doing things the “right way”- he cares more about the man than the athlete. This sort of attitude doesn’t get the attention of ESPN or other sports media, so I want to give him kudos here, because I doubt you will hear about him during his last year. Duke comes to JPJ on Wednesday, February 23 this year, and it would be nice if everyone would show up and honor him in the manner he deserves.

Moving to the sport we are analyzing, Duke’s football coach is David Cutliffe, who is known as a quarterback “guru” (in the same sense that I am a football “expert”). Cutliffe has been mentor to Heath Shuler, Peyton Manning, Tee Martin, Eli Manning, Erik Ainge, Thaddeus Lewis, Sean Renfree, and Daniel Jones. So, if one gives any credit to genetics, as one is wont to do, his mentees, really can be described as, “drafted journeymen”, which is also the name of a 60’s folk group. People give Cutliffe credit for being a very good coach, but I would equate him to sweet potato fries- it sounds like a great side dish, and then they show up kind of limp and soggy, and you are thinking you should have ordered the regular fries. Or something like that.


As far as the game analysis, without giving away all of my proprietary inputs to the model, some of the heavily weighted factors this week include:
• We are at home, that’s gotta be worth some points
• They are away from home, add a couple of more
• Given the QBs Cutliffe has developed in the past, add a few more for us
• Targeting rules don’t apply to us, give Duke 2 points if they exploit that
• We continue to have a 30:1 balanced pass/run attack, which most of you non experts don’t think is a key stat, but I know that you pass to establish the other passes and only run on 3rd and 9 or greater. A few more points for us
• A few more intangibles (announcer speak for things they didn’t think of) worth some more points

Add this all up, and my model predicts an easy 53-2 Hoo victory


Posted: 10/14/2021 at 10:00AM



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Current Thread:
  Why on earth Anae called that draw on 3rd and 9 -- hooman#1 10/14/2021 10:59AM
  DBG ** -- Trigon 10/14/2021 2:31PM
  Think about what you just said though -- Ahmad  10/14/2021 11:20AM
  😂😂😂. I’ll hold you to that ** -- Ahmad  10/14/2021 12:08PM
  Everyone has a different offensive philosophy -- Ahmad  10/14/2021 11:52AM
  I could see that third and 4 or 5. -- AMP HOO 10/14/2021 11:31AM
  But folks still questioned Draw plays -- Ahmad  10/14/2021 3:46PM
  Well they worked with Perkins. Think -- Ahmad  10/14/2021 3:45PM
  Tiki on 3rd and long at F$U in 96. -- chapelHOOll 10/14/2021 11:48AM
  Found this breakdown on run vs pass -- TwoBob 10/14/2021 11:57AM
  never's a long time ** -- Trigon 10/14/2021 11:32AM
  Purposeful hyperbole.** -- Kris  10/14/2021 11:33AM
  good name for a garage band ... ** -- Trigon 10/14/2021 2:39PM
  well-played ** -- Trigon 10/14/2021 11:34AM
  That's fine but the call wasn't odd is my point ** -- Ahmad  10/14/2021 11:23AM
  Agree it’s not odd but for anae, history has proven -- RChooNnoke 10/14/2021 11:29AM
  You would know better than me, however -- RChooNnoke 10/14/2021 11:36AM
  There are plays he does on certain downs -- Ahmad  10/14/2021 11:41AM
  Oh I am not saying he does it too often -- hooman#1 10/14/2021 12:53PM
  Absolutely with Perk. -- chapelHOOll 10/14/2021 12:11PM
  Why stop there, give me some 4th and Longs! -- jdubforwahoowa 10/14/2021 10:56AM
  SVP and Stanford Steve still talk about that. LMAO ** -- jdubforwahoowa 10/14/2021 10:57AM
  69, get on your horse! ** -- HooWorldOrder 10/14/2021 11:11AM
  One Flew Over the Eagles' Nest. ** -- jdubforwahoowa 10/14/2021 10:25AM
  You have typos. ** -- jdubforwahoowa 10/14/2021 10:18AM
  I C what you did there. -- jdubforwahoowa 10/14/2021 10:50AM
  "targeting rules don't apply to us" LMAO . PERFECTION ** -- FumberHOOski 10/14/2021 10:05AM

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