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Joined: 01/24/2002 Posts: 4073
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Things will improve, but our margin of error is thin

This will likely end up being a Q3 type loss. Navy will be solid not great, good enough I think to avoid a dreaded Q4 loss at the end of the year.

Beyond that, in analyzing the team, these things stood out:
1. Gardner is aggressive on offense and that will be a big benefit in general. His aggressiveness though led to 5 TOs which has to be reined in. Tony will have to find a way to keep him aggressive while involving teammates and not forcing the issue to bad turnovers.
2. I am still high on Shedrick in general, but it will take some time. I believe Kris has cited a stat in the past on the number of on court minutes for UVA big man under CTB before the light comes on. In reality Shedrick may not really start to come on till mid to late season. He will play better than last night, but something like 7-9 PPG and 20-25 MPG is probably the highest what we should expect assuming he stays healthy.
3. The 3 guards will have to shoot better. I will chalk up Franklins night to an off night, but I also think he is likely closer to a 35% 3P shooter than his 42% mark from last year. If he hits a couple more 3s we probably win. Beekman is just not a shooter. He brings a lot of other nice things to the table but not shooting. Kihei is Kihei. Hope is he is a little better version of himself. In general though in today's college basketball you have to have guards who can shoot the 3P. We just dont have that. We didnt have it in 19-20 either. So we are probably not going to win BIG this year.
4. Defense improved in the 2nd half but I think alot of the struggles it had was lack of game experience with each other. Any team defense especially the pack line takes time to gel. We just have to hope we get enough offense in Nov/Dec to avoid more disaster before that happens.
5. This team can still be an NCAAT team but the margin of error is small. In 19-20 it was similar but the guys found ways to win all those 2/3 point games late in the year. The margin was slim though, it will likely be similar this year. That is why Tony is going to have continue to emphasize defense to get this team to reach its potential.
6. The bench is woefully thin. Stattmann and Caffaro have to step up their games and be meaningful contributors. The other 3 I assume just arent ready for meaningful minutes.
7. At the end of the day we have been spoiled. Duke missed the tourney last year. UNC would have in 2020. Kentucky missed it last year. Etc. Hopefully we dont miss it, but it is always possible even for blue bloods and even more so in today's CBB. The future is bright with next years class and hopefully 2023 as well. I just have to remind myself that only 1 team wins it each year. I look for this team to improve and make us proud, but I think our expectations for this season have to be in line with what the roster has. Those expectations will go up starting next season.

Posted: 11/10/2021 at 09:48AM


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Things will improve, but our margin of error is thin -- RaleighHOO 11/10/2021 09:48AM

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