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Joined: 10/22/2016 Posts: 491
Likes: 555

Computer models have trouble with intangibles like chemistry

Pre-2019 we had these great returning nuclei. We had 5-6 guys that had played lots together. We came into the season ready to incorporate 2-3 newbies and crush. 2019 we had the defense, but needed to find the offense. The last two years we’ve had slow starts. Our loss to Navy hurts our computer ranking. (As well as being Twitter fodder)

We lost 6 of the top 8 players in minutes played. of course we sucked in our first game. If we even had 1 more of the guys that left, we probably win that game. After 3 more games we win that game. The model sees that we lost a game to navy. Navy stinks. It would take a lot for a model to account for continuity vs the previous X games.

Torvik’s model said Hoos +1 at home vs Va Tech. So we performed only slightly better than expected, so theoretically we shouldn’t move up (other than other teams that didn’t perform as predicted).
[Post edited by UVAChemE at 01/14/2022 10:36PM]

(In response to this post by AlaskaHoo)

Posted: 01/14/2022 at 10:30PM


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