Can UVa Eliminate Mental Errors?

With the final ACC trip to Maryland on the docket and Virginia staring at a three-game losing streak, I decided to look back at this weekly article to read my picks. Each time I break down why I think “Virginia can win” an why I think “Virginia can lose” that week’s game.

Before the BYU week, I said “Virginia can win if … it prevails in turnover margin” and that “Virginia can lose if … it continues to struggle in the red zone and in scoring even with a new offensive coordinator in town.” Before the Oregon contest, I said “Virginia can win if … it scores at least 35 points” and that “Virginia can lose if … it over-pursues on defense and breaks down on special teams.” Before VMI, I said “Virginia can win if … it dominates the day defensively as expected” and that “Virginia can lose if … sloppy play … would be the easiest way to produce an unforeseen loss.” Before Pitt I said “Virginia can win if … it limits explosive plays by Pitt’s offense” and that “Virginia can lose if … it doesn’t fix the turnover mess. I’m fine with a defensive identity that features a ball-control, low-scoring offense as long as the turnover margin category lines up with that mission. It hasn’t in years.” Finally, for Ball State I said “Virginia can win if … Ball State joins the 3-and-out parade against UVa’s defense” and that “Virginia can lose if … the receivers don’t catch the ball first and then gain some yards.”

I see a theme in there. Turnovers, red zone trouble, special teams breakdowns, sloppy play, dropped passes … the only thing not in there is penalties, which had gotten better until last week’s 13-flag fiasco. The other theme running through it? Almost all of those things are mental errors and, in many if not most cases, controllable mistakes.

And there’s the thing: that is what has frustrated fans the most this season. Entering the 2013 campaign, I heard and read many fans’ say things like … “just play better football” or “if they make progress week to week, that’s good enough for me this year” or “make less careless mistakes” and so on.

So when UVa went from a gut-it-out win against BYU and showed some glimmers of hope against Oregon into a bye week only to exit with a lackluster showing against VMI, a mistake-induced loss at Pitt, and a mental-error parade against Ball State … well that didn’t sit too well now did it? The frustration begins with specific examples like running beside a rolling punt, back-to-back weeks with turnovers by the punt return unit, personal fouls after the whistle, dropped passes, jumping offsides, and more. Then numbers like these are where the frustration continues:

• 111th (tie) in turnovers lost (14 turnovers on 7 INTs and 7 fumbles lost)
• 93rd in red zone touchdown percentage (56.25%)
• 83rd in penalties per game (7.0)(UVa fell from top 50 in the country in penalties per game to 83rd last week)

Those are things that get you beat. Since 2007’s Gator Bowl year, the turnover problem has been recurring. The Hoos have not been in positive turnover margin territory again (they were even at 0.0 in 2009) and they’ve had four years of negative margins under coach Mike London. As for penalties, the Cavaliers have committed 6.8 or more per game in three of four years under London.

The best year for both turnovers and penalties under London? 2011. UVa averaged 5.3 penalties per game and finished with its best turnover margin of -0.54. That team went to the Chick-fil-A Bowl and won 8 games. If this year’s team – and ultimately the program – wants to get back to winning, it starts there.

The Pick

Season to date: 4-1.

Virginia can win if … it converts practice preaching into game execution. Luke Bowanko said after last week’s loss that the team is practicing well. He also said that at some point, it’s not on the coaches to teach it, but on the players to execute it. That’s especially true for turnovers and penalties I think. Eliminate those mistakes and you’ll be in a spot to win this week. Then it is a matter of executing at a key moment or two.

Virginia can lose if … the defense can’t stop the read option runs. Last week’s game began to unravel a bit for the defense when it could no longer bottle up the read option handoffs. Ball State ended up with 160 yards rushing, most of it from the running back. Maryland starting QB C.J. Brown is doubtful for this game and he’s a key piece to the read option running attack for the Terps, but regardless of who plays, the defense needs to stop the run so that it can set the tone for the contest.

And the winner is … Virginia. I have no idea why. I don’t think the confidence of the “we are going to win” mantra of 2011 is there anymore with the team and you see some bad body language starting to creep in with some individuals. With that said, I think the team is due for a clean and complete performance and there’s nothing like a border rival to increase a team’s focus in practice and on game day. It’s going to be close, but UVa finds a way to quiet the critics for a week. Virginia 24, Maryland 20.