Just 18 games ago, the Virginia football team was wrapping up an unexpected trip to the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Mike London was ACC Coach of the Year and nearly every Hoo thought that the program was headed in the right direction.
Now 18 games later, the Cavaliers have lost 3 straight games and 12 of their last 16 against Football Bowl Subdivision teams. The losing times have included a 2012 quarterback controversy, undisciplined play, an offseason overhaul of the coaching staff, and a fan base that is suddenly not so sure about London and the program’s path.
So 18 games from now when the 2014 season is wrapping up, where will UVa’s football program be? Is this the beginning or the end?
That’s where we’ve arrived in the London era at Virginia. Now 3.5 years into his tenure, the Hoos are either on the verge of a climb or a collapse. There are signs of both possibilities. Coaches and players insist the breakthrough is close. Certain areas, particularly over the past two weeks when some offensive personnel changes were made, look like a highly competitive team: defensive three-and-outs, tackles-for-loss/sacks, rushing yards, kickoff coverage, and so on. Other areas, on the other hand, remain inconsistent: red zone execution, turnovers, penalties, too aggressive or too conservative swings on fourth down, and so on. Clock management and end of game situations by the coaches continue to be debated too.
In other words, there is fuel for both “light at the end of the tunnel” campers and the “seen enough” crowd.
One thing is for certain in my mind, though. The swing games will determine Mike London’s fate at Virginia.
There will be plenty of the proverbial “could go either way” contests over the next 18 games – UVa Athletics Director Craig Littlepage reaffirmed the stance that London will be back in 2014 – and those outcomes will decide if London builds UVa into a winner or if its time to head back to the coaching carousel. The ACC alone is full of those games for Virginia. Just look at this season: Pitt, Maryland, Duke, UNC, Georgia Tech, Miami, and Virginia Tech can and should be considered toss-up games in 2013. Clemson seems to be the exception (and I’d be OK with moving Miami out of the list, but the Cavaliers have played well in recent seasons against the Hurricanes). So far, UVa is 0-2 in those games. If you throw in BYU and Ball State as “could go either way” games, the Hoos are 1-3.
That was a problem last season too. If you look at the 2012 schedule, TCU may have been the only game with a Football Bowl Subdivision team that could fall outside the toss-up category. UVa went 3-7 (wins over Penn State, NC State, and Miami) in those swing games. On the 2011 side of the coin, only the FBS games against FSU and Virginia Tech were outside the toss-up category and UVa finished 6-3 in those swing games.
To make it simpler, Coach London and the Wahoos need to win more games against teams in the crowded middle tier of college football. Virginia resides in that vast territory between elite and awful. The problem over the last 18 games has been a dismal record against teams of similar quality. If that persists over the next 18 games, the next step will be clear.
The Pick
Season to date: 4-2.
Virginia can win if … it continues to run the ball successfully. The past two weeks, the Hoos have piled up 236 and 242 rushing yards. When you run the ball that well, you almost always have a chance to win the game and control the tempo. That could go a long ways this week against Duke, which has the ability to score some points. Simply put, if UVa cracks 200 yards rushing again, I think it wins.
Virginia can lose if … the defense gives up too many big plays. UVa led Duke at the half last season 17-14, but eventually big scoring plays vaulted the Blue Devils to a victory. They scored touchdowns of 54, 37, 45, and 34 yards in the win. This season, Duke has posted 12 plays of 30+ yards (tied for 39th nationally). In recent weeks, this has been an issue for the Wahoo defense – Maryland probably doesn’t win if it doesn’t complete a 47-yard pass on 3rd-and-22 in the fourth quarter – so if that continues, the Blue Devils could cause more misery in Hooville.
And the winner is … Virginia. Just because. UVa 38, Duke 34
Should be 2-4 I believe.
“Virginia resides in that vast territory between elite and awful.” We do? Who resides in the “awful” category if not UVA?
We’re pretty awful, I can’t come close to calling us mediocre. I mean, Duke is at best a toss-up. Seriously.
jtrimble, 1-3 in swing games (BYU, Pitt, Ball State, Maryland). 1-1 in expected outcome games (Oregon, VMI). That’s 2-4.
Yes — it is the beginning of the end**
I hate to say it but Virginia football is a disaster. The team makes too many stupid mistakes. We are told these kids are really talented, so the finger must be pointed at the coaching staff. It would take a miracle to achieve any more wins this season. I did not particularly care for Coach Groh, but his teams seemed to be more competitive. I am sure BYU is wondering how in the world they lost to us.
Ummmmm….The End!?