Here We Go Again?

Last week’s “pick” article focused on the big picture as a growing chorus debates Mike London’s job performance and job security. The basic premise dialed in on swing games – those that look like toss-ups on paper in terms of talent, depth, and so forth – and how that ultimately would decide London’s fate as Virginia’s head football coach.

Then UVa promptly blew a 22-point lead to Duke and lost another swing game on its schedule. The Cavaliers have now dropped four straight games despite taking the lead in three of those contests. In fact in its last two home games, Virginia led by double digits – 17-7 over Ball State and 22-0 over Duke – only to get destroyed in the second half. BSU rolled 31-10 afer intermission, while Duke uncorked a 28-0 romp as part of scoring 35 unanswered points.

That’s a sign of a team with a fragile psyche, something the players have essentially owned up to in the past month. After the Ball State loss, Eli Harold said players on defense were hanging their heads after the Cardinals posted their first scoring drive. He said it rattled the Hoos’ confidence and they never really got it back.

After Duke, numerous players talked about the snowball effect where things tend to collapse completely for the Cavaliers at the first signs of trouble. Kevin Parks said some players had “wide eyes” and “here we go again” looks on the sidelines.

In both of those games, UVa had an opportunity to tie the game or take the lead in the fourth quarter. Against Ball State, the Hoos actually shook off back-to-back turnovers to piece together a field goal drive that made the score 34-27 in BSU’s favor early in the fourth quarter … but the defense promptly gave up a 72-yard touchdown pass and Virginia didn’t recover. Against Duke, Alec Vozenilek made a 39-yard field goal to tie the game but a false start penalty erased the attempt and he missed from 44 yards moments later … and with 7:37 still to go in a 3-point game, the Wahoos wilted immediately as the Blue Devils drove for a touchdown to essentially put the game away.

The players talk week to week about how close they are to winning some of these games. How just a few plays here or there could swing these swing games in their favor. Yet, in one-score games at home where the game is still in the balance? The mental strength is not there to overcome some adversity and get the job done. No one makes that play. No one takes over the sideline and rallies his teammates to erase the doubt and squash the “here we go again” feeling before it happens.

Yes, I understand that you can pin some of that on the coaches too and I’m not assigning blame solely to the players. But when a close game is unfolding and there is an opportunity to grab a win that we’re told this team desperately wants to get? I’m saying I’m surprised that no one wearing a uniform seizes the moment and tries to galvanize a final push.

To me, and I said it in multiple media interviews last week, it all boils down to one thing for this Virginia football team. The games are competitive and you’re close to a break through? It’s time to put up or shut up.

The Pick

Season to date: 4-3. A three-game losing streak – you’d think one swing game would be a win …

Virginia can win if … it sustains drives and finishes those possessions off with points. Georgia Tech is at its best when it dominates time of possession, grinds the defense until it is tired, and then puts the game away. When opponents are able to keep that GT offense off the field for long stretches of time during the game, it gives them a chance to turn the tide and make the Yellow Jackets play from behind – something they don’t do as well. The bad news? UVa isn’t a drive-sustaining machine on offense so this could be a tough task to accomplish.

Virginia can lose if … it allows more big scoring plays. Duke scored from 47 and 24 yards out, Ball State hit the jackpot from 32 and 72, and Oregon rattled off long touchdowns of 71, 40, 30, and 31 yards. Maryland set up a 1-yard touchdown with a 77-yard gain. Simply put, the defense puts up a lot of good stats and has a lot of good moments, but these big scoring plays sap the energy out of the entire team. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, has touchdown plays of 21, 24, 24, 31, 33, 44,46, 50, and 59 yards this season. Two of those came last week in a 56-0 win against Syracuse.

And the winner is … Georgia Tech. I don’t like the matchup on paper. UVa’s run defense has struggled of late and GT can expose the big play issues on defense, while the UVa offense needs to sustain drives but hasn’t been able to do that consistently. I don’t like the injury report. Virginia will be without Demetrious Nicholson, Brent Urban, and Maurice Canady, while Jake McGee and others are hobbled. I don’t like the team’s mental toughness. The players believe that something is going to go wrong much more than they believe they can overcome anything to win. In a nutshell, I don’t like where things sit right now. Yellow Jackets 48, Hoos 24.