A few weeks back I wrote that Virginia’s magic number was four for bowl eligibility. Well, those opportunities have disappeared during a dismal six-game losing streak.
As a result, the 2013 season’s final three games are about winning a game – any game – that can end the misery of losing, reset the program’s momentum, and set goals for 2014. Plus, there is plenty of pride on the line too because two of the final three games come against the program’s biggest and longest running rivalries. Up first is North Carolina in the South’s Oldest Rivalry. These two programs will play for the 118th time this weekend. The month ends with a showdown against Virginia Tech, who the Cavaliers will play for the 95th time.
Make no mistake about it, these are desperate times for the program. The players and coaches need to treat it that way. During the losing streaks of the last two seasons, which both reached six games, I never picked up on a sense of desperation from the team. There has yet to be a ‘we have to win’ vibe. The attitude has been about how close the Cavaliers are to winning and how positive results are about to arrive.
Well Hoos, times have changed. These are your rivals. You’re in a terrible tailspin. Again. And, to make matters worse, you’re in a long-lasting funk against your rivals. North Carolina has won three straight games against Virginia for the first time since the 1970’s. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, has reeled off nine straight victories.
It’s time to wake up!
Yes, every game counts the same … at least when you’re chasing conference titles and bowl bids. This team isn’t running that race anymore. That means games against your arch rival don’t count the same anymore. These games mean more. Want to end the negativity that players and coaches have been talking about the need to ignore? Beat your rivals. Want to energize the fans? Beat your rivals. Want to boost the potential of the future? Beat your rivals.
While a lot of folks have vacated the bandwagon during the last two seasons, you can bring them back. You can bring them back 10 fold. But it starts with beating your rivals first. Your opportunity awaits.
The Pick
Season to date: 6-3.
Virginia can win if … it eliminates the chronic mistakes. Drive-killing drops, untimely penalties, snowball effect turnovers, missed coverage assignments, and so on have cost the Hoos a lot of field position, potentially a lot of points on both sides of the scoreboard, and certainly some wins. If the Cavaliers can put together a clean game across the board in terms of these miscues, they can eventually win one of these swing games. After all, UNC isn’t all that different on paper than UVa.
Virginia can lose if … it continues to struggle scoring points. Yes, the defense has its own issues with allowing big plays as the site has noted time and again, but I believe this program loses games because it can’t score points. It’s like they’re playing against Tony Bennett’s Pack-Line D every week or something. 17.8 points per game against FBS competition? 20.9, 21.8, 22.2 averages so far this decade? Yikes. There are weeks and opponents that shut even high-flying offenses down (see Stanford vs. Oregon this week), but to struggle that much year in and year out against a variety of opponents is one of this program’s main problems. College football is a high-scoring deal now – half of the FBS teams average 29+ – so if you want to win some games, you’ve got to score more points.
And the winner is … North Carolina. I believe Virginia is going to find a way to win at least one more game, but I honestly couldn’t tell you which one so I won’t pick the Hoos in this segment. Maybe this is the week? UNC 27, UVa 24.
