Quarterback Conversations

A disappointing season and the recent open date on the schedule have led to some inevitable quarterback discussions among UVa fans this week. Quarterback debates and controversies are nothing new in football, of course, particularly when teams are losing. It’s been going on at Virginia since what 2006? You’ll find varying opinions in an EDGE message board thread here and a football thread here (note that message board links eventually expire).

Cavalier quarterback David Watford is excellent in meeting his media responsibilities, answers all of the reporters’ questions week after week, and generally is a ‘take the blame’ guy when things are going sour for the offense. Reports have touted his leadership skills and demeanor since the offseason months. His poise has grown dramatically in interviews since prior to a redshirt season a year ago.

In his first year as a college starter, there have been ups and downs. Some really good-looking moments and some really head-scratching ones too.

There are some good stats:

• Leads the ACC in completions with 221
• Owns a 58.3% completion percentage that ranks third among first-time underclassman starters at UVa
• 3 rushing touchdowns are the most for a Cavalier quarterback since Jameel Sewell had 7 at 2009

There are some bad stats:

• A 101.83 quarterback rating ranks last in the ACC and 100 out of 101 players nationally
• 12 interceptions is tied for last in the ACC and only 5 quarterbacks have more nationally
• 7 touchdowns thrown – that’s tied for 105th nationally out of 153 QBS listed in the NCAA stats

Ultimately quarterbacks are judged by a few things, though. Al Groh, polarizing as he remains among UVa fans, always referenced pelts. Did the QB lead his team to a win? During Watford’s time as the starter this season, the answer has been no. The Hoos are 2-8 and in a seven-game tailspin. That’s not all Watford’s fault, certainly, but it is how QBs are judged regardless. In the games where he saw significant passing opportunities as a true freshman in 2011 (56 of his 74 passing attempts came in 3 games), the answer was no too as the team went 1-2 against Idaho, Southern Miss, and NC State.

Beyond that, analysts often used third down to delve even further into a quarterback’s game. Watford has completed 67 of 120 passes on third down (55.8%). The offense has converted a first down on 44 of those 120 opportunities (36.7%). That sits in the middle of the pack among his ACC counterparts (7th out of 13 players) with at least 45 passing attempts on third down with the range going from 27.6% (Syracuse’s Terrel Hunt) to 62.2% (FSU’s Jameis Winston).

And finally, analysts generally point to two related keys in their quarterback evaluations – did you help your team get in the end zone and did you turn the ball over? Watford’s team averages just 20.5 points per game this season, 109th out of 125 Football Bowl Subdivision teams. Against just FBS competition – taking out the VMI game – that number drops to 17.3 and 113th nationally. And, as noted above, Watford’s 7 touchdowns and 12 interceptions both rank low among his quarterback peers.

Those numbers and the season’s downward spiral are what have led to the QB chatter. Do Greyson Lambert or Matt Johns deserve to start? A few series? Lambert’s most recent outing helped spark a lot of these conversations as he completed 8 of 13 passes for 75 yards and 1 touchdown against UNC. He seems to be growing in comfort and his development curve appears to be moving up, but before that last contest, Lambert had completed 8 of 27 passes with 1 INT. I’d give Lambert a chance with some earlier series based on what I’ve seen and I could accept a decision to start him to ‘see what we’ve got’ as the saying goes but without seeing practices, film breakdowns, and the like, that’s not a thought based on all the information available to the coaches though.

Virginia coach Mike London addressed the quarterback question this week.

“I mean, what you see is David is the starter. Obviously with the last two games left, if there are opportunities to interject Greyson into opportunities to play in the game, then we’ll do that. But not more than what we’ve been doing as far as trying to develop these guys as we go forward here,” London said. “We spend a lot of practice time trying to get guys additional looks and additional reps with ones versus the twos and things that make guys comfortable. Greyson has done a nice job, and he continues to keep getting better. But this game, we go into it as David with the starter, and then as I said, as the game goes on, we’ll see the opportunities that are presented, what we can do to get Greyson in the game.”

The Pick

Season to date: 7-3

Virginia can win if … it takes advantage of Miami’s sometimes shaky defense. The Hurricanes give up 400.5 yards per game this season, which ranks 10th out of 14 ACC teams. Miami also allows 25.5 points per game. Like UVa, the Cane defense is vulnerable to big-play breakdowns – opponents have produced 44 plays of 20+ yards and 21 plays of 30+ yards. The bad news? The Cavaliers haven’t shown much of anything on offense to suggest they can take advantage of the holes. They have just 28 plays of 20+ yards this season (13th in the ACC) and own paltry averages of 365.3 yards and 20.5 points per game.

Virginia can lose if … it can’t get pressure on Stephen Morris to force some mistakes. The long-time starting quarterback at Miami, Morris has thrown for 2,538 yards. With 16 touchdowns this season, he ranks fourth among ACC QBs and with 9.0 yards per pass attempt, he’s third in the league. In other words, he can hurt you with his passing ability. However, he’s also prone to mistakes. Morris has tossed 11 interceptions this season, just one less than ACC cellar dwellers David Watford and Logan Thomas. During this seven-game losing streak, one of the biggest issues the past few weeks has been that UVa’s defense hasn’t been able to pressure the pocket as consistently as the first half of the season. Any hopes of an upset will require a return to the high-pressure form from the Pitt game way back in September. That could cause some mistakes from Morris and give the Cavaliers a shot at some turnovers.

And the winner is … Miami. I’d like to think the Hoos have some fire left to break out of this slump. I’d like to think that last year’s post-bye win against NC State is a good omen for this year’s post-bye game at Miami. I’d like to think three straight wins against the Hurricanes would give these players some much-needed confidence and belief that they can get it done. I’d like to think Brent Urban’s expected return from injury would provide a jolt of inspiration. But I can’t get past some of the ongoing flaws with this team so I have to pick the Canes. Miami 37, Virginia 20.