The Afternoon Break: Football Projections, Philly Patriots

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Anthony Harris returns to help lead an experienced UVa defense. ~ Mike Ingalls

Football previews keep popping up around the web. There are two more focused on Virginia and the news remains the same.

First up is Bill Connelly’s preview on SB Nation. It’s full of charts, advanced stats, and opinion wrapped inside a 10 sections. The first section is titled “All the ingredients of a successful program … except the success” so you know right off the bat what the outside perception of the UVa football program is right now. But Connelly clearly thinks the program has more to offer with phrases like “burgeoning power” and lines like “This program has all the makings of a up-and-comer ready to break through.” Still, he tempers any expectations of a big turnaround due mainly to recent seasons with similar promise: “Virginia Football 2014: Hope is not lost, but don’t get too worked up over here.”

Connelly hits on many of the topics addressed on the EDGE throughout the past two seasons. Section three is titled “A pass-first offense that couldn’t pass” and section four is titled “Starving for big plays.” Read the full article for a lot of breakdown data and analysis. But in a nutshell, the author is drilling down to what many close followers of the program have been saying for the last two seasons. If the offense doesn’t get better, reduce turnovers, and score some points, the rest of the puzzle pieces really don’t matter much.

Meanwhile, Lauren Brownlow for Fox Sports Carolinas, plugs UVa into the 14th spot in the ACC. While Brownlow says Virginia doesn’t have the worst talent level in the ACC, she points to London’s previous seasons with similar talent as the reason for the projection. Read the full article here.

Brownlow is particularly concerned about the Hoos’ schedule and she pegs Pitt as the game to circle on the schedule. In the season is a success if category, Brownlow writes that “They get through the first half of their schedule 3-3 – and beat Virginia Tech to snap a 10-game losing streak to the Hokies. This schedule is just way too challenging, probably, for there to be more than four wins.”

Here’s hoping that Virginia’s players feel the same way as the radio color analyst Tony Covington:

Basketball Season Projections

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Malcolm Brogdon led UVa in scoring last season. ~ Mike Ingalls

The folks over at scacchoops.com have posted its 2014-15 stat projections for each returning player in conference. Here’s how it works: “The idea behind the system is that we can compare any given player to the 2000 or so historical ACC players and find the closest matches. Then we can take an average of how their comps performed in the same respective season and get a good projection of how the player will progress. ” Click here for the landing page that will take you to each individual team.

Virginia’s stat projections place four players in double figures for scoring with Malcolm Brogdon (14.1), Mike Tobey (13.5), Justin Anderson (11.2), and Anthony Gill (10.2) eclipsing the 10.0 barrier. The forecast also gives you the likelihood that the projection is correct. Brogdon is listed as 81% for example. Anyway, it’s a fun little exercise for June as Cavalier fans try to pass the time between now and November.

And if you really want to go down a basketball rabbit hole this summer, check out individual player comparisons. Anderson’s list, for example, includes C.J. Fair and Luol Deng among others.

The Basketball Tournament

The Basketball Tournament, a $500,000 event with prizes for teams and fans, starts Friday in Philadelphia. The 32-team bracket plays the first four rounds Friday-Sunday and the championship game on Saturday, June 28. The tournament website gives you all kinds of information, including the bracket.

The Philly Patriots feature a core of UVa players. Sean Singletary, Sammy Zeglinski, Mamadi Diane, Ryan Pettinella, and Jason Cain all are listed as roster members along with other former standouts from the Philadelphia area. Roster capsules are available here.

RestoreUVA Auction

RestoreUVA, a student group, is holding a summer auction online this week in support of the restoration of the Rotunda, a historic landmark. Final bids in the auction are due by Sunday, June 8 at 9 p.m. Click here for all the auction site through Better World Collective.

There are several auction items related to athletics. This includes basketball sessions with either Mike Tobey or London Perrantes, a tennis session with Mitchell Frank, a soccer session with Eric Bird, and water skiing with Professor Kenneth Elzinga.

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Hoo-Tube Video of the Day

When the Major League Baseball Draft starts Thursday night, there’s a good chance Virginia closer Nick Howard will be among the names called in the first round. The latest Baseball America mock draft (click here) projects Howard to the Los Angeles Angels at No. 15.