Can Virginia’s Bullpen Survive NCAA Regional?

The Virginia baseball program will make its third trip out west for an NCAA Tournament Regional when it opens play in the 2015 event this week. For the second time in seven seasons, the Hoos will travel to sunny Southern California.

This season, the region’s third-seeded Cavaliers take on No.2 seed University of Southern California on Friday. University of California at Santa Barbara, the host school, will face San Diego State, a familiar foe to UVa fans from the 2009 tournament. The UCSB regional champion advances to play the winner of the UCLA Regional.

The first west coast visit for UVa was to Corvallis, Oregon in 2005. That tournament appearance ended quickly with losses to Ohio State (2-1) and St. John’s (5-3). The Hoos faced the aforementioned San Diego State in the Irvine Regional in 2009, drawing future No. 1 draft pick and current Washington Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg. The Cavaliers swept the “Region of Death” as it was labeled at the time by taking out Strasburg and then host UC Irvine twice. That region victory propelled Virginia to its first Super Regional appearance and sparked an unprecedented run of success in program history. In the six seasons from 2009-2014, the Cavaliers made five Super Regional trips and advanced to the College World Series in Omaha three times.

The 2015 Lake Elsinore Regional begins with some controversy in baseball circles as the first question NCAA selection committee chairman Dave Heeke was asked after the brackets came out Monday was about the worthiness of UC Santa Barbara as a regional host team.

“UC Santa Barbara has had an outstanding season,” Heeke said. “A few other teams were in that conversation that were very worthy of hosting, but we went side by side and we put them together. We have rankings across the country with our regional advisory committees. So they consistently ranked very, very high in the west among some other western teams that you might think would be obviously in consideration. So they were always among the top two in that regional advisory committee. That includes a chair from this committee as well as coaches from the region.”

There isn’t a huge home-field advantage for UCSB in hosting the regional at Lake Elsinore Diamond. It’s located south of Los Angeles, a three-hour California freeway drive from Santa Barbara. Maybe there’s a home field advantage for the USC Trojans, though. There certainly isn’t for UVa travelling from the East Coast and coach Brian O’Connor admittedly would rather be playing at Davenport Field. That’s not a privilege he says his team deserved, though.

“We didn’t earn that this year,” O’Connor said.

Considering Virginia’s 23-12 road/neutral site record, he added that traveling might not be an entirely bad thing for his club.

“This team has proven this year we’re better out on the road,” O’Connor said. “We’ve got a lot of new faces on this year’s club so I think this will be a good experience for our guys. To get us out of what we’ve been used to and that’s playing in the east and in the south and get out west and play some good baseball.”

Virginia’s 23 road wins were the most of any power 5 conference team (ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big 12) this season.

Below is a quick snapshot of the four Lake Elsinore Regional participants (courtesy Warren Nolan Nitty Gritty Report and respective team websites):

Stats	UCSB	USC	UVa	SDSU
Overall record	40-15	39-17	34-22	40-21
RPI	20	23	21	75
SOS	61	43	15	133
Non-conference SOS	31	120	164	110
Conference record	16-8	18-12	15-15	19-10
Home record	26-7	20-12	11-10	19-15
Road/neutral record	14-8	15-9	23-12	21-6
1-50 RPI record	6-2	9-12	15-13	14-12
51-100 RPI record	11-5	6-3	5-4	13-5
Last 10 games	6-5	5-5	6-4	7-3
ERA	2.39	3.45	3.60	4.07
Batting average	.291	.294	.275	.292

Regardless of when, where, or who UVa is playing, unless the bullpen can get its act together, the Hoos won’t last long whether they are in Charlottesville or all the way across the country as the brackets turned out.

For long-time followers of Virginia baseball, some of the recent collapses by the Cavalier bullpen are unusual. In 2013 and 2014, UVa went 89-3 when tied or leading after seven innings. In the last 14 situations like that this season, however, the Wahoo bullpen has surrendered five leads in the eighth or ninth inning with Virginia tied or leading. On the season, the Hoos are 32-7 when tied or leading after eight innings, meaning the bullpen has blown seven opportunities to close out games for victories.

The three recent collapses likely cost the Hoos a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. UVa surrendered eight runs to NC State last Saturday in the ACC Tournament after entering the eighth inning tied 2-2. Miami plated eight runs in the eighth inning in game one of pool play last Wednesday, which took the Hoos from a 5-2 lead to a 9-5 deficit. Near the end of the regular season, Duke uncorked six runs during a ninth inning meltdown in game two of the series in Charlottesville and won 9-7.

Four weeks ago, the Cavaliers lost a double-header to the Wolfpack in Raleigh on late inning bullpen letdowns. The Pack claimed both contests with walk-off home runs. Virginia Tech also took the lead in the finale of the series in Blacksburg off an eighth inning home run that gave the Hokies the 6-5 margin of victory.

Late-game pitching has been a strength for the Cavaliers since O’Connor brought Karl Kuhn to Charlottesville with him in 2004. This season, the UVa relievers have posted a 4.31 ERA – the highest for the bullpen crew in five seasons by a long shot:

2015 – 4.31
2014 – 2.39
2013 – 2.53
2012 – 2.95
2011 – 2.74

“If you don’t have somebody that can finish games, when you’re talking about ending somebody’s season, that’s really difficult to do,” O’Connor said. “Not only do you have to have somebody at the end of the game who can handle the pressure of the situation, you also have to have somebody that’s got really good stuff too.”

Part of the reason for the late season struggles for the bullpen has been the juggling of the pitching rotation to accommodate the loss of 2014 All-American southpaw starter Nathan Kirby. Closer Josh Sborz took on the third weekend starter role to replace Kirby and righty Alec Bettinger stepped in to fill the closer role vacated by Sborz.

The missing component in each of the five recent late-inning losses is that Sborz was not available to pitch. But O’Connor said Monday that situation will change with Sborz going back to the pen for the regional.

“[Josh] has done a great job in his starting pitching performances,” O’Connor said. “Maybe in the first couple of games [of the regional] we won’t need him and he is able to start game three like it’s played out in a couple of those weekends [recently]. Our plan will be that if we have a chance to win the game, we’re going to us him out of the bullpen and then we’ll assess as we move on from game one to game two and beyond what we’re going to do with him.”

Named to the Stopper of the Year Midseason Watch List, Sborz has recorded an ACC-best 12 saves and is limiting opponents to a .172 batting average. Sborz has a team-leading 2.17 ERA.

The Sborz decision likely will move Bettinger back to a more comfortable middle-relief role where he was very successful this season. Bettinger proved to be a solid long-relief and set-up man after moving from his mid-week starter role in 2014 to the bullpen this season. Entering the NC State series, the sophomore right-hander sported a 2.35 ERA and opponents were hitting just .239 against him. But he has struggled in the closer slot and his ERA ballooned to 3.99 over the last three weeks.

Sophomore Connor Jones, who moved into Kirby’s Friday night starter role, said he sees getting Sborz back in the pen as a bonus when added to the experience Bettineger received during his stint as Virginia’s closer.

“Alec Bettinger is more than capable of doing the job but adding another option back there in Josh is really important for us to have another dimension to the team,” he said. “I think Josh adds a little more fire in the back end for us.”

There are two other pitching wildcards for Virginia entering this weekend that might fix some of those late-inning lapses as well. The first is the emergence of Adam Haseley on the mound. The second is the potential return of Kirby.

Haseley certainly has proven he can handle pitching in big-time college ball since joining the Virginia pitching rotation on April 1. He earned his first win in his first start on April 22 after working four scoreless innings against Liberty. He notched his first college save and clinched the series win against Duke with two shutdown innings in the rubber match of the series. Haseley tossed a career-long 4.2 innings, giving up two earned runs and three hits against NC State in Saturday’s loss in the final game of the ACC Tournament.

As for Kirby, O’Connor opened the door to a possible postseason return in Durham last weekend but seemed guarded Monday. He tried to limit expectations in response to questions about the All-American’s availability for Lake Elsinore.

“There’s a lot of things that will factor into that,” O’Connor said. “One, is he ready? Two, even if he’s ready, am I putting him in a position for him to succeed for our team and also am I putting him in a position that is not in the best interest of his future?”

O’Connor certainly removed any ambiguity regarding Kirby’s status for Friday and Saturday.

“I know this, he isn’t going to start the first two ball games,” O’Connor said. “It’s going to be something we will have to assess later on in the week and see if it is an option and what capacity.”

The Hoos certainly go into the regional with plenty of questions in the bullpen. Fortunately, all four teams seem to have inconsistencies that make this a wide open regional. One thing is clear, when the Cavaliers can execute offensively, play error-free defense, and hold leads, they are difficult to handle – just ask UNC and Georgia Tech.

There’s also a lot to be said for a team and coaching staff with postseason experience. With its 12th consecutive NCAA appearance, Virginia has plenty of experience.