The long wait is almost over Sabre fans! Virginia football season kicks off for the first time under new coach Bronco Mendenhall on Saturday. The season opener against Richmond at Scott Stadium is scheduled for 3:30 p.m.
TheSabre.com introduced a new weekly football feature this season called “Ask The Sabre” where our staff responds to fan questions. This feature is brought to you by our newest sponsor Bundoran Farm, where you can Create Your Virginia Legacy.
To see the “Ask The Sabre” articles in the archives, just click here. The fourth installment takes on a few final preseason questions. Here you go …
Will Smoke have more yards rushing or receiving? ~ Twitter fan @ElijahW31946005
Editor Kris Wright: Great question! In his first two seasons, he had slightly more rushing yards than receiving yards (184-164 in 2013 and 280-271 in 2014). Last season, his first as a heavily featured player on every down, he posted more receiving yards than rushing yards with 721 through the air and 671 on the ground. That’s all old data in an old system, though. BYU did not use the running backs much as receivers in the last three years when new UVA offensive coordinator Robert Anae ran the show (no back finished higher than fourth on the team in receiving yards and 267 was the three-year high for any back).
So what’s that mean for Mizzell and the system moving to Charlottesville? I’m betting the coaches get him more involved catching the ball than any BYU back they had the last three years – he’s more talented at that skill after all than anyone they had – but I also think he’ll have more rushing yards in this system than the old one. In the end, I think he ends up with slightly more rushing yards than receiving yards. I’ll call it approximately a split of 900-700 or more because I do think Mizzell is going above 1,600 yards combined this season.
Associate Editor Chris Horne: Like last year, I think his rushing and receiving numbers will be comparable. Also like last year, I think his receiving yards will edge out his rushing yards. For starters, I haven’t seen the offensive line be consistent enough to produce major yardage in the run game. Second, the short passing game is a substitute for the run game and gives Mizzell a chance to catch the ball in space and go. If the line can’t open holes consistently, this is the next best option. Third, coach Bronco Mendenhall wants to play to the strengths of the team, and Mizzell’s versatility and receiving ability is a strength. I think the staff wants to see the wide receivers play a more prominent role in the receiving game. BYU’s top six pass catchers a year ago were all wideouts. Mizzell led UVA in receiving last year, so I expect Mendenhall to continue to feature him while also hoping to get the wideouts more involved.
How much experimentation, especially with personnel alignments, should we expect early on? ~ mwolve
Editor Kris Wright: I guess that depends on how you would define experimentation and early. I’ll define experimentation as a heavy rotation of players. For early, I’ll break it into two parts – early as in Richmond for week one and early as in the first four games or 33% of the schedule. So starting with Richmond, I think you’ll see a fair amount of personnel get into the rotation – some position battles are ongoing and some packages will feature different players to work toward strengths. I also think the scoreboard will allow some substitutions eventually. I suspect it to be with limited alignment looks, though, so I would call it experimentation in that sense. There’s no reason to overload the players with a game plan in week one or to show opponents much for the future in that regard. The step by step building process doesn’t fit with a complicated first week as players get used to that routine with the new staff. I think we’ll see some base concepts and plays with an eye on execution this weekend.
Looking at the bigger picture ‘early’ of September, I think that changes some. I think the player rotation probably whittles down as the team prepares for ACC play. On the flipside, I think the experimentation with more complicated game plans and wrinkles to alignments and shifts will be on the upswing. At that point, a month in, you want to start seeing what you have for league opponents and you also want to start forcing them to prepare for possibilities in your schemes.
How many snaps do you think it will take the QB to get reaccustomed to full contact? ~ Bladed
Editor Kris Wright: I like this question for two reasons. One, starter Kurt Benkert has never started a game and he missed all of the 2015 season after a knee injury last August. In other words, he hasn’t had a whole lot of full contact out there – if any – in more than a year. How will he react the first time he gets hit Saturday? I don’t expect it to be a big issue because in talking to him, he doesn’t seem like the type of player that would be fazed by that part of football. In terms of getting used to it for timing and rhythm purposes, I’ll say 1.5 games, though I don’t think it will be noticeable all that much to fans where he’s missing passing targets all over the place.
The second reason I like this question doesn’t really relate specifically to the quarterback spot. I’ve read several articles out of BYU discussing how coach Bronco Mendenhall and his staff don’t use live tackling or full contact in practices in heavy doses. That’s evident from some of the preseason practice videos coming out on Virginia Sports TV too – players aren’t in full pads in several of them even later in the month so those aren’t full contact practices. Plus, as fans saw at the spring festival practice, at least some of the practice reps are conducted without helmets – again that’s not live tackling. Will it take UVA’s defense a while to get accustomed to clean tackles or not? It’s worth monitoring.
What are the chances that we ACTUALLY go 0-8 in ACC play? Seems ridiculous that multiple “experts” are projecting that we will go O-fer this year. ~ WestsideWahoo87
Is 0 – 8 in conference play a real possibility? I hope not, surely want Bronco and team to coming charging out. But have seen 0-8 posted on several media outlets. ~ wahoowad
Editor Kris Wright: Slim. Boston College ran the table the wrong way last season, but it took an awful offense to do it (17.2 points per game and 27 total touchdowns on the year). Virginia, meanwhile, won four home games last season, including three in ACC play. The Hoos had three ACC home wins in 2014 too. UVA did go 0-8 during the 2013 disaster, but I think there’s more talent and better preparation in place now. I think the team is more likely to go .500 in the ACC than winless.
Associate Editor Chris Horne: North Carolina and Louisville will be tough even with Virginia taking on those teams at home. The rest of the schedule – Duke (A), Pitt (H), Wake Forest (A), Miami (H), Georgia Tech (A) and Virginia Tech (A) – comes against teams the Cavaliers have a real chance at beating. Duke and Pittsburgh are solid teams but certainly beatable. The Hoos host Pitt at home, which is a plus. Wake Forest is underwhelming and hardly an intimidating road atmosphere. Virginia has a great chance there. I don’t consider any of the final three ACC contests sure-fire losses, either, as all three teams have question marks heading into the season. With this ACC schedule, I’d be surprised if Virginia lost all eight games. Going 0-8 isn’t out of the realm of possibility if Virginia plays poorly, but I’m thinking 3-5 is more realistic. I just can’t see Virginia not winning at least one game with this schedule.
Looking past “coach speak”, is there a feel on how optimistic the coaches are, from a realistic standpoint, on the season? ~ ViolateTheShotClock
Editor Kris Wright: I think, if you’re reading between the lines, there’s a sense among the coaches that a good season is possible. I don’t think anyone is getting ahead of themselves – these coaches are process, process, process driven – but I do think the repeated effort to mention the team’s effort, resilience, and talent near the top of the depth chart is an indicator that the coaches think they can win this season.
Associate Editor Chris Horne: Coach Mendenhall has expressed high confidence that this will be a winning program. How quickly this will come to pass is the main question. Mendenhall’s focus now is on building the foundation for years to come, although he certainly wants to win now and wants to put the team in the best position to be successful. I suspect he believes Virginia can make it to a bowl game. The will of the team is there and there are talented players. At the same time, he has to be realistic in knowing there is small margin for error, injuries, etc.
Chris & Kris – In some of the coaches’ comments I’ve sensed a bit of surprise at the level of talent they’ve inherited at several positions. And we know they have been pleasantly surprised by the willingness of the players to embody the new culture of effort and conditioning. So I wonder if you’ve picked up from the staff a secret belief that the team can be competitive in their division sooner than expected, perhaps even this year if they are fortunate on the injury front? I’m sure they are uncertain about the level of competition they’ll be up against in the ACC, but sometimes I think I hear them suggesting UVA football isn’t in the dire condition they may have suspected, coming in. Do you pick that up, too?