An email popped into my inbox this week from Pete Topken with an observation and a related question. The general idea: Virginia’s defense seems more “porous” this year compared to last year so is the impact of losing Jontel Evans responsible, the new emphasis on fouls, or both? That’s an excellent topic for the exam break so let’s take a look.

First, let’s peek at the defensive numbers for reference. Somewhat to my surprise, the numbers aren’t drastically different from last season’s average. Of course, you have to factor in that no ACC games are in the mix yet. Still, at a statistical level through 10 games, things look remarkably similar:

Comparing UVa's Defense

Statistic	2012-2013	2013-2014
Opponent Points Per game (National rank)	55.6 (4th)	55.1 (3rd)
Opponent Points From Free Throws (National Rank)	20.2% (152nd)	18.1% (36th)
Fouls Per Possession Percentage (National Rank)	25.0% (110th)	24.6% (36th)
Defensive Efficiency (National Rank)	.885 (15th)	.848 (6th)

Looking at it in a table like that, there is very little discrepancy. Virginia gave up 60 points 9 times in 35 games last season (once every 4 games roughly) and it has allowed 60 or more 3 times in 10 games this season (once every 3.3 games roughly).

Yet, if you’ve been watching the games it is clear that UVa’s defense isn’t playing as well as previous seasons for Tony Bennett. The Cavaliers aren’t containing the dribble as well and the help defenders in the Pack-Line aren’t responding as well on breakdowns either. So back to the original question, is that the impact of losing defensive stalwart Jontel Evans, the new emphasis on fouls, or both?

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