Overview
With no games last weekend, the Tigers and ‘Hoos got a little extra recovery time for this battle, but Clemson may have needed the time more for mental than physical rejuvenation.
The Tigers are off to their worst start since 1998, when they opened the season with a win over mighty Furman and then lost four straight. Most observers and, frankly, the Clemson coaching staff, expected a record closer to 3-1 and some folks in Pickens County are a little worried.
Were it not for a miserable call by an ACC back judge in the Wake game, Tommy Bowden’s boys might be 0-4. The Tigers entered the season ranked 15th in the nation and were predicted to finish fourth in the conference. The Tigers are ninth in the league in total defense, total offense, scoring defense and rushing defense, 10th in scoring offense and dead last in rushing offense, passing efficiency and turnover margin. With four of Clemson’s seven remaining games against N.C. State, Maryland, Virginia and Miami, look for the Tigers to finish below .500 for the first time in the Bowden era.
So does that mean the Tigers will be desperate this evening? Yes. But desperation doesn’t guarantee a win, execution does. And I’m not sure changing the starting lineup will do the trick.
Clemson Offense
Junior quarterback Charlie Whitehurst entered 2004 owning 33 school passing records even though he had only started 18 games. He was rated among the nation’s top quarterbacks by many publications, but he has not lived up to the preseason hype. Currently he is tenth in the league in passing efficiency and has thrown 10 interceptions (and five touchdowns). Even more telling, his team is 1-3. The Tigers are averaging 22 points per game, six fewer than in 2003, and they are producing 108 fewer yards per game than last season. They are also converting just 28 percent of their third-down attempts.
When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to point a finger at Whitehurst. But the problems are more a result of poor play throughout the Clemson offense and a quarterback trying to compensate for the deficiencies.
“Right now we’re a team that’s probably pressing too hard,” Bowden said. “Maybe Charlie [Whitehurst] is trying to be as good as the newspapers said he would be.”
On the season Whitehurst has completed 70 of 143 passes for 843 yards.
The Tiger offensive line is working without two if its starters from a year ago and both losses were at the critical tackle spot. For some teams that can be easily overcome, but the tackle position is more crucial that others in Clemson’s offense since the quarterback is constantly in the shotgun and pocket integrity is essential.
When asked what he had seen on tape with respect to Whitehurst, UVa coach Al Groh said, “When the integrity of the pocket isn’t as sound, then usually [quarterbacks] make more mistakes and that’s been the case here in the early games [for Clemson].”
Both short yardage and pass protection have been problematic for the Tigers this season. Clemson’s 27.8 third-down conversion percentage is last in the league and its 3.5 yards per carry average is eighth. The front five have also given up 11 sacks in four games, almost half of what they allowed in the entire 2003 season.
The biggest area of concern has to be with the Clemson tackles. The Tigers are young and with the announcement that freshman Barry Richardson will start against the Cavs tonight, they’ll be even younger. Sophomore Marion Dukes became the first second-year player to start at an offensive tackle position for the Tigers since 1994. He played in 10 games last season and has started all four this season. The Tigers will see another first when Richardson starts at offensive tackle against the ‘Hoos. Richardson will become the first Clemson true freshman offensive lineman to start a game since 1986. The 6-7, 350-pound lineman has played 74 snaps over the last two games, 38 at Texas A&M and 36 at Florida State. He played the entire second half in Tallahassee and received high grades for his performance from line coach Brad Scott. Richardson did not allow a sack against the Seminoles.
There are also changes in the interior where Nathan Bennett will start over Roman Fry at the right guard position. Bennett is referred to by his teammates as “Big Country.” With the offensive line it’s a matter of toughness and attitude and Bennett brings both. Bennett also brings experience to the line having started seven games last season for the Tigers. Senior Cedric Johnson will start at the other guard position. Johnson is a returning starter and is regarded as the team’s top offensive lineman. He earned honorable mention All-ACC recognition in 2003.
Senior Tommy Sharpe anchors the Clemson line at center. The former walk-on has started 20 of the last 21 games at center. Sharpe is strong and has good footwork and tenacity. “I’ll tell you, no one gives as much effort as Tommy Sharpe. He really gets after it,” said Coach Scott.
Like the offensive line, the usually prolific Clemson receiving corps has struggled and there are changes for this unit as well. Curtis Baham will be start in place of Kelvin Grant in the team’s three-receiver set.
Baham has five receptions this season for 60 yards. Grant will get plenty of playing time and may be a good indicator that the Tigers will be looking to throw. Grant is second on the team in both catches (16) and receiving yards (189).
Whitehurst has made Airese Currie and Chansi Stuckey frequent targets. Stuckey has recorded 13 catches on the season for 159 yards, while Currie is the team leader in receptions (23) and yards (325). It’s interesting to note that Currie’s numbers have dropped appreciably with each game. He posted nine catches for 152 yards against Wake, six catches for 80 yards against Georgia Tech, five receptions for 64 yards at Texas A & M and had only three touches for 29 yards against Florida State.
Still, Currie leads the ACC in both catches and receiving yards per game and is 27th in the nation in both categories.
“When you break it down, though, a lot of our problems on offense have been due to turnovers, dropped balls, a break here and a break there, or not getting a break,” Bowden said. “We hit some receivers and the ball bounces off, or they’ve just barely missed. But we’ve got a fairly aggressive passing attack, and we ask a lot of the quarterback. We ask a lot of our receivers.”
Ben Hall is an excellent blocking tight end and could play a big role since Clemson will likely use the running game to try and get back on track. The Tigers have had success running the ball against Virginia recently. In 2002 they averaged 121 rushing yards but posted 189 in Charlottesville. Last season Clemson averaged 137 rushing yards but recorded its third-highest rushing total of the year against the ‘Hoos (194).
The return to the starting lineup of Duane Coleman should give the running game a boost. Coleman is a solid runner between the tackles, he can produce on the perimeter and he is a decent option in the passing game. Maybe most important for this edition of the Tigers, he doesn’t put the ball on the ground.
But while Coleman will get plenty of carries, look for Yusef Kelly to see action in hopes of duplicating his past success against Virginia. In 2002 Kelly had a solid game at Virginia with 72 yards rushing and 26 receiving. Last year he hurt the ‘Hoos with 88 yards and a touchdown in an overtime victory at Death Valley.
Clemson Defense
Clemson’s Eric Coleman is a native of Charlottesville and will be returning to his home city this week. Coleman attended Charlottesville High School, where he played tight end and defensive end. The starting senior defensive tackle has recorded 11 tackles this season, including two for loss. Junior Trey Tate, who has 14 tackles, mans the other tackle spot.
Much of the pressure from the Clemson defense will come from the defensive ends. Charles Bennett has delivered 19 tackles this season and is second on the team in tackles for loss. His counterpart on the other side of the defensive front is Maurice Fountain. The senior end has 14 tackles and leads the Tigers in quarterback pressures with five.
The Clemson linebacking trio is led by one of the nation’s best in senior Leroy Hill. Groh calls Hill a “downhill linebacker” with great speed and instincts. In 2003, Hill ranked second in the nation in tackles for loss with 27 and he was also among the top 30 in sacks with eight. This season Hill already has 10 tackles for loss, including four sacks. He also leads the Tigers with 42 tackles. Hill is one of seven ACC players on the Butkus Watch List and you can bet that Marques Hagans will always know where Hill is located prior to every snap.
Sophomore Anthony Waters is a young, athletic defender who seems to always be around the ball. His tackle-to-snap ratio is among the best on the team, as he has a tackle every 6.6 plays.
Listed as the starter at WHIP linebacker for the third consecutive season is senior Eric Sampson. Sampson is a top run stopper who also has the versatility to cover backs and tight ends. Sampson has 15 tackles on the year and is tied for second on the team with two sacks.
Clearly the strength of the Clemson defense coming into the 2004 season was the secondary. Justin Miller is considered one of the top cornerbacks in the nation. He led the Tigers in passes defensed last season and has recorded 37 for his first three years. The Thorpe Award candidate has recorded 28 tackles this season and is second on the team in pass breakups. Miller has struggled somewhat this season but will likely get the matchup with Michael McGrew tonight.
Also returning as a starting cornerback is Tye Hill. The junior moved from running back to cornerback last year and it paid off for the Tiger defense. He is also one of the top performers on the Clemson track team as he was the 60-meter indoor and the 100-meter outdoor ACC champion for 2004. A disruptive force for the Tigers, Hill has two tackles for loss, a sack and a team-leading eight pass breakups.
Clemson is also very experienced at the safety positions. Jamaal Fudge started all 13 games at roverback last year and finished the season with 116 tackles, third on the team and second in the ACC among sophomores. Fudge is one of the hardest hitters on the team and a player Groh specifically mentioned as a key emphasis for containment by the Virginia offense. Like Hill, Fudge has been a very disruptive player this season with two tackles for loss, two sacks and five pass breakups.
Travis Pugh is the returning starter at free safety. He was fourth on the team and third among returnees in tackles with 102. Pugh is second on the team in quarterback pressures (4) and tackles (35).
Clemson Special Teams
Junior Stephen Furr handles the place-kicking duties for the Tigers. Furr has connected on three of five field-goal attempts this season and six of seven PATs. Cole Chasen is currently sixth in the conference at 41.2 yards per punt. Clemson is 10th in the league in net punting with a 33.2 average.
Justin Miller is arguably the best kickoff return man in college football. Miller set an NCAA record for kickoff return yards in a single game when he gained 282 at Florida State two weeks ago.
Miller already has three kick returns for touchdowns this year, including a 69-yard punt return against Wake Forest and the twin returns against the Noles. Miller stands third in the nation in kickoff returns with a 36.4-yard average and holds the ACC career mark of 31.3 yards per return.
The junior cornerback has five career kick returns for touchdowns – three kickoffs and two punts – three shy of the NCAA record. Miller has a 12.7 average on punt returns and is attempting to become the first Clemson player to rank in the top 25 in both categories in the same season since 1995. Miller also return punts averaging 12.7 yards per return.
In addition to his receiving accomplishments, Airese Currie has been outstanding in terms of kickoff returns, averaging 37.3 yards on three returns.
Clemson Offense vs. Virginia Defense
The statistics notwithstanding, Charlie Whitehurst is more often than not an efficient quarterback who makes good decisions. He hasn’t been lately, but that could change tonight.
Clemson’s offense clearly revolves around Whitehurst and the passing game, but don’t be shocked if the high-flying Tigers take a more low-risk approach and try to power rush against the ‘Hoos like they did a year ago in Death Valley.
It is imperative that the Cavs keep the Tiger ground game in check this time. Clemson was 0-3 last season when rushing for fewer than 85 yards and the Tigers are 1-2 in 2004 when being held below the 85 mark.
The insertion of Baham as a starting receiver is further indication that the Tigers will be looking to run tonight. Baham is a strong (405 bench press), physical wideout and considered one of Clemson’s better run-blocking receivers. The Tigers are not a big-package substitution offense so look for a pass when Grant is in the lineup.
Bowden has made four changes on offense and all suggest a bigger focus on the running game. In addition to Bahan, there is Richardson, who is 70 pounds heavier than his predecessor, and Bennett, who is 30 pounds heavier than the lineman he replaced. Add the return of Coleman and you have a clear signal what the Tigers will try and do tonight.
On pass defense, Virginia will bring the blitz from both the linebackers and the secondary. But the Cavs can also have success by mixing their coverages and blitz packages, confusing Whitehurst and forcing some bad decisions. Clemson likes to max protect, using seven blockers and three-man routes. When the Tigers go to four-wide, the backs are rarely in the mix and they protect with six.
Look for more involvement from tight end Ben Hall as well. The Tigers may try and use the tight end to slow the UVa pass rush and force the ‘Hoos to keep a linebacker at home.
The Cavs will likely attempt some bump-and-run and try to take away the inside slants and crossing patterns, forcing the Tigers into running more fades and outs, typically lesser-percentage throws and more susceptible to being intercepted.
The biggest issue for the Tigers is whether they can score enough points to win. Of Clemson’s 89 points, 29 have come on defense or special teams. Another 24 have come on two big running plays and in overtime. Only 41 have come on sustained drives put together by the Tiger offense in regulation, an average of 10.3 per game.
If Virginia limits the big play and any special-teams heroics, it’s hard to envision Clemson scoring more than 12-14 points tonight.
Clemson Defense vs. Virginia Offense
Look for the Tigers to stack the line of scrimmage and try to force Marques Hagans to pass. Clemson’s strength on defense is its middle linebacker and secondary, so it wants UVa to attack its strengths.
The key is to be able to run the ball against the stacked Tiger fronts and to get the ball to the outside. Easier said than done against a speedy Clemson defense.
Don’t be shocked to see the ‘Hoos come out and actually give the Tigers what they want and attack with the passing game.
I believe the aggressive style of play that Clemson defensive coordinator John Lovette puts out will have problems against a mobile quarterback. Most defenses try and keep players like Hagans in the pocket and that responsibility is usually placed on the defensive ends. They may also look to spy Hagans and the likely man for that task is Hill, the middle linebacker. If so, that would be just fine with the Virginia coaches as it takes Hill out of his normal attack focus and may limit his effectiveness.
Screens, draws, well-timed reverses, bootlegs and yes, the option will all serve to force the aggressive Tiger defense into a more read-and-react mode. Virginia needs to force the Tigers to think for a split second before they attack the play.
The optimum situation for the ‘Hoos is to simply line up and play smashmouth football, and I’m convinced they can do just that. If not, Hagans completed over 60 percent of his passes against the league’s best nickel package throughout training camp. I’m happy to put my money on the little guy.
The Edge
Quarterbacks – Virginia
Running Backs – Virginia
Wide Receivers – Clemson
Tight Ends – Virginia
Offensive Line – Virginia
Defensive Line – Virginia
Linebackers – Virginia
Secondary – Clemson
Special Teams – Even
Stone-Cold Lock Prediction
The Tigers can reflect on their season to date and easily see why their record is a pitiful 1-3 heading into the month of October. Ranking dead last in the country, 117th, in turnover margin is arguably the most telling stat thus far. That doesn’t bode well for a team preparing to face an aggressive group of determined pass rushers and ball hawks.
Most teams over the course of a game have four to six possessions per half. So naturally if there are four or five turnovers spanning four quarters, it significantly reduces the opportunities for scoring, meaning any offense that commits four to five turnovers must hit paydirt on its remaining drives or rely on defense and special teams to win games.
When given extra time to prepare, the Cavaliers are 7-2 under Groh. Tonight in Charlottesville, a high-flying Virginia team will face the emotional train wreck that is Clemson. Yes, the Tigers defeated Florida State last season in a similar “back-against-the-wall” circumstance, but this game is not at home and the 2004 edition of the Tigers is not up to par with its predecessors.
Last year Virginia caught the Tigers on their “A” game. They had intensity and urgency, something UVa clearly lacked in the first half. The Tiger play-calling was innovative and their spread offense gave Virginia’s young linebackers fit. The Tiger defensive front was more motivated and more physical than the Wahoo offensive line, Matt Schaub had an OK game and with 37 passes in 43 second-half plays, the Cavs were very one-dimensional. Even with all that, the ‘Hoos took the game into overtime. This is a far better Cavalier unit but I’m not sure the Tigers can say the same.
The history of this game says it will be close. Virginia has won two of the last three games against the Tigers and all have been nail-biters. The current crop of Cavaliers doesn’t tend to remember the past. This game will buck the historic trends and will not be close. There is too much overall talent on the Wahoo roster and too much emotional baggage for the Tigers to overcome.
Take the points.
Virginia – 38
Clemson – 17
John’s take: Looking at Clemson, I have two competing, somewhat contradictory thoughts. First, I think the Tigers were overrated at the beginning of the season. They aren’t one of the top 15 teams in the country. They lost too much talent from last year, especially at receiver and defensive line. In particular, they sorely miss Donnell Washington, who plugged the middle for them. Now they can’t stop the run. They also miss Derrick Hamilton and Kevin Youngblood, tall wideouts who created matchup problems and gave Whitehurst some big targets. Now Clemson can’t catch.
On the other hand, I think the Tigers are underrated right now — or at least overlooked. They’re still a fast, athletic team with some of the top playmakers in the ACC — Whitehurst, Airese Currie, Leroy Hill and Justin Miller. I’m really impressed by Hill, who was a one-man wrecking crew in last year’s game against Virginia. Miller and Currie are dangerous return men who can break open a game. Whitehurst has played poorly so far this season, but he wasn’t a fraud as a sophomore. He’s not getting enough protection and his receivers are dropping too many balls. You have to figure he’ll play better tonight, don’t you?
Same goes for Clemson’s entire team. Will the Tigers continue killing themselves with turnovers? They have committed 14 while recording just two takeaways. That kind of turnover margin is extraordinarily bad. Can the Cavaliers force them into similar mistakes? I’m not sure. In Virginia’s first game without Chris Canty, I think the pass rush will suffer. Ahmad Brooks and Darryl Blackstock will have to provide consistent pressure. If not, Whitehurst might be able to pick apart the UVa secondary, which still has something to prove. After all, the four starting defensive backs have just one interception between them. Currie is a tough matchup for the corners, who probably will need safety help. That could open things up for Clemson’s running game, which gets tailback Duane Coleman back and also has Yusef Hill, who always looks good against the Cavaliers (but mediocre against everyone else).
I think the Tigers also present some challenges for the Cavalier offense. Virginia should be able to move the ball on the ground. After all, everyone has done so against Clemson. But I don’t know if the ‘Hoos can spring as many big plays in the passing game as they did against Syracuse. Miller and Tye Hill are lightning-fast corners who may not need help against the Virginia wideouts (especially if Deyon Williams isn’t fully healthy). That could allow the Tigers to use their safeties for run support and force Williams, Michael McGrew and Heath Miller to beat one-on-one coverage. Marques Hagans also will need to play at a high level and take care of the ball.
For several reasons, this game scares me a little bit. I’m not convinced that Clemson’s confidence is completely shot, not this early in the season. I expect the Tigers to play their best game of the season, move the ball and slow down the Cavalier express to some extent. If Virginia plays a sloppy game, commits a few turnovers, gets beaten in the secondary and gives up a long return or two, an upset is entirely possible.
However, I don’t see that happening, either. Groh seems to have this team sharp and focused, and there is no indication that the Cavaliers have lost their mental edge. I don’t think they’ll be looking ahead to Florida State. I don’t think they’ll be moping about Canty’s injury. And I don’t think they will suffer a letdown, mentally or physically, on the national stage in what should be a great college-football environment at Scott Stadium.
John’s prediction: Virginia 31, Clemson 21
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