Overview
After three years of stunning success in his first head coaching job, Ralph Friedgen and his Maryland Terrapins are struggling with an inexperienced team and quarterback. Friedgen, however, is adept at developing quarterbacks and some believe sophomore Joel Statham may have turned the corner.
In the three games prior to Saturday, the Terps had averaged only 5.7 points and 122 yards. Against FSU, however, they generated 20 points and 378 total yards. Maryland also controlled the clock, holding the ball almost 10 minutes longer than the Noles.
The Cavaliers are coming off two consecutive games in which they appeared to be outplayed and outcoached. A Virginia team that just three weeks ago was rated among the top two in virtually every defensive category in the ACC has dipped down into the middle of the pack. Opposing offenses have found the soft spot in the Cover 2 and have used the tight end primarily to exploit the Virginia defense.
Maryland enters the game 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the ACC. The Cavaliers (6-1) are currently ranked 12th and 13th in the major polls and carry a 3-1 ACC record.
Maryland Offense vs. Virginia Defense
THE MATCHUPS
MARYLAND OFFENSE
LT 70 Stephon Heyer (6-6 295, JR.)
LG 74 C.J. Brooks (6-5 311, SR.)
C 72 Kyle Schmitt (6-4 295, SR.)
RG 77 Russell Bonham (6-2 300, jR.)
RT 79 Lou Lombardo (6-5 308, SR.)
TE 84 Derek Miller (6-8 264, JR.)
FB/H 5 Ricardo Dickerson (6-1 254, JR.)
TB 33 Josh Allen (5-11 202, JR.)
QB 16 Joel Statham (6-1 212, SO.)
WR 11 Drew weatherly (6-3 202, so.)
WR 9 Jo Jo walker (5-11 186, JR.)
VIRGINIA DEFENSE
DE 96 Brennan Schmidt (6-3 269, Jr.)
NT 60 Andrew Hoffman (6-4 284, Sr.)
DE 98 Kwakou Robinson (6-4 327, Jr.)
ILB 44 Kai Parham (6-3 247, So.)
ILB 34 Ahmad Brooks (6-4 249, So.)
OLB 45 Dennis Haley (6-1 247, Sr.)
OLB 56 Darryl Blackstock (6-4 240, Jr.)
S 36 Jermaine Hardy (5-11 208, Sr.)
S 5 Marquis Weeks (5-10 214, Sr.)
CB 3 Marcus Hamilton (6-0 187, So.)
CB 23 Tony Franklin (5-10 185, So.)
MARYLAND OFFENSIVE STATS
Total Offense – 321.5 (9) / UVA Total Defense – 292.8 (4)
Rushing Offense – 134.6 (9) / UVA Rushing Defense – 102 (2)
Passing Offense – 186.8 (8) / UVA Passing defense – 190.8 (7)
Scoring – 22 (8) / UVA Scoring Defense 15.7 (3)
First Downs – 144 (8) / UVA First Down Defense – 110 (2)
Third Down Conversions – 37.4% (5) / UVA Conversion Defense – 39.2 (8)
Sacks Against – 22 (9) / UVA Sacks For – 21 (6)
Time of Possession – 31:45 / UVA Defense Time Without Possession – 28:56 (3)
Turnovers Lost – 16 / UVA Turnovers Gained – 8
While Maryland’s offenses have been known for their diversity and creativity, Friedgen likes to do one thing and that’s run with the rock. You hear about all of the passing accomplishments of Fridge quarterbacks, but over the last three years it has been the Terps’ running game that has helped forge a 35-12 record.
So it comes as no surprise that Maryland is a ball-control team. Until the game against Florida State, the Terps were 0-4 when losing the first-down battle. In four losses the opponents have owned a 72 to 45 first-down advantage, while in four wins the Terps are leading in the category 99 to 68. That means that when Maryland is winning, it is sustaining drives and keeping opposing offenses off the field.
Bruiser Sammy Maldonado leads the Terp rushing game with 478 yards on 117 attempts, a 4.1-yard average. Maryland’s leading rusher from 2003, Josh Allen, has posted 423 yards. The pair has combined for nine touchdowns.
Allen and fullback/H-back Vernon Davis are very effective targets in the Terp passing game. The backfield tandem accounted for nearly 200 receiving yards against the Seminoles.
The struggles of Maryland quarterback Joel Statham are well documented. His success against FSU has also been big news over the week. The question now is can the Terp sophomore maintain his proficiency in back-to-back weeks?
How will Maryland attack Virginia? In UVa’s last two games, both Duke and Florida State attacked the soft middle of the Virginia Cover 2 with ease. Against the Seminoles, Statham had a field day against the FSU zone. The Seminole secondary is better than Virginia’s. In the Cover 2, the underneath defenders at times switch to man-to-man coverage based on the passing routes and the actual defensive call. The man coverage is where Virginia has struggled. The Wahoo linebackers especially had difficulty covering Clemson wide receivers, FSU’s backs and Duke’s tight ends. This issue must be solved by the Maryland game or Friedgen will exploit it.
Key to Statham’s success last week was improved performance from a Maryland offensive line that has had an up-and-down season. The Terps average 6-4, 302 across the offensive front and start a veteran group that includes juniors Stephon Heyer at left tackle and right guard Russell Bonham. The offensive line boasts three senior starters with center Kyle Schmitt, right tackle Lou Lombardo and All-American candidate C.J. Brooks at left guard. The unit has a collective 100 career starts.
Maryland’s receiving corps is average. Drew Weatherly is listed as a first-time starter, while Jo Jo Walker is projected to make only his third career start. Maryland’s leading receiver, Derrick Fenner (20 catches, 280 yards), and the speedy Steve Suter have been battling injuries. Neither caught a pass against FSU.
Maryland Defense vs. Virginia Offense
THE MATCHUPS
VIRGINIA OFFENSE
LT 66 D’Brickashaw Ferguson (6-5 295 JR.)
LG 62 Brian Barthelmes (6-6 288 JR.)
C 75 Zac Yarbrough (6-4 276 SR.)
RG 61 Elton Brown (6-6 338 SR.)
RT 69 Brad Butler (6-8 296 JR.)
TE 89 Heath Miller (6-5 255 JR.)
FB 32 Tom Santi (6-5 225 FR.)
TB 33 Wali Lundy (5-10 214 JR.)
QB 18 Marques Hagans (5-10 211 JR.)
WR 80 Michael McGrew (6-2 201 SR.)
WR 81 Deyon Williams (6-3 188 SO.)
MARYLAND DEFENSE
DE 41 Kevin Eli (6-2 280, Sr.)
NT 76 Henry Scott (6-2 271, Sr.)
DT 95 Conrad Bolston (6-3 280, So.)
DE 45 Shawne Merriman (6-4 245, Jr.)
MLB 52 D’Qwell Jackson (6-0 231, Jr.)
WLB 48 William Kershaw (6-3 230, Jr.)
SLB 54 David Holloway (6-2 222, So.)
SS 2 Chris Kelley (6-2 204, Sr.)
FS 26 Ray Custis (5-9 188, Sr.)
CB 38 Gerrick McPhearson (5-10 190, Jr.)
CB 6 Domonique Foxworth (5-11 178, Sr.)
VIRGINIA OFFENSIVE STATS
Total Offense – 465.4 (1) / UM Total Defense – 301.3 (5)
Rushing Offense – 249.0 (1) / UM Rushing Defense – 111.3 (4)
Passing Offense – 216.4 (2) / UM Passing defense – 190.0 (6)
Scoring – 36.0 (1) / UM Scoring Defense 17.7 (4)
First Downs – 165 (2) / UM First Down Defense – 140 (7)
Third Down Conversions – 51.6 % (1) / UM Conversion Defense – 29.8 (4)
Sacks Against – 9 (1) / UM Sacks For – 20 (8)
Time of Possession – 31:04 / UM Defense Time Without Possession – 28:15 (3)
Turnovers Lost – 4 / UM Turnovers Gained – 13
While the Terp offense has been somewhat of a disaster (at least until last Saturday), the Maryland defense has dominated opponents over the first eight games of the season.
But the Virginia offense is explosive and will challenge the Terps. Three of the top 12 overall point producers in the conference are Wali Lundy, Marques Hagans and Alvin Pearman. Of the other ACC teams, only Georgia Tech has more than one player in the top 12.
“The one thing we’ve done all year is played good against the run,” said Friedgen. “We’re going to be tested this week, there’s no doubt about it. They’re huge up front. The thing I’ve been impressed with them [Virginia’s offensive linemen] is how athletic they are.”
It is imperative that the Cavaliers have an effective afternoon on the ground. If they can produce similar rushing outings as they did against Clemson and Syracuse, the ‘Hoos will win.
At 6-3, 269, the Maryland defensive line is lean and fast. Senior Kevin Eli and junior Shawne Merriman are focal points of the Terp pass rush. Merriman is 6-4, 245, and will remind Virginia fans of a smaller Chris Canty with his disruptive style of play. He leads the Terrapins in both sacks (5) and tackles for loss (10).
The interior of the Maryland line features sophomore Conrad Bolston and senior Henry Scott. Like Merriman, both have the ability to make plays in the backfield, tallying 10.5 stops for losses and three sacks.
While attempting to have some success against the Terp run defense, the ‘Hoos must have a tremendous effort from Hagans and the passing game. Two years ago in Scott Stadium, Virginia had a 286-yard passing day in which the backs and tight ends caught 15 of the 24 passes for 203 yards. Jason Snelling had a career day with seven of those receptions for 76 yards. With Snelling out, the emergence of fullback/H-back Tom Santi is timely. The Maryland corners are good defenders so Virginia will need another big day from the backs and tight ends.
Junior linebacker D’Qwell Jackson leads the Terps in tackles (60) and interceptions. The rest of the backer trio includes sophomore David Halloway and junior William Krenshaw. The pair has combined for 60 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss.
Three of the four starters in the Maryland secondary are first-year starters – senior safeties Chris Kelley and Ray Custis, and junior cornerback Gerrick McPhearson. McPhearson leads the team with six pass breakups and Custis has the lone interception among the Terrapin DBs.
The dean of the Maryland secondary is Domonique Foxworth. The senior is an athletic defensive back who starts for the third straight season at the field cornerback position. He is an All-America candidate who has received All-ACC honors the past two seasons.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game has always been a passion of Friedgen’s and his teams have generally included one of the top special teams units in the conference. This season is no exception as the Terps are once again among the league’s best.
For the third year in a row, Nick Novak is a candidate for the Lou Groza Award. Punter Adam Podlesh continues a legacy of fine Maryland punters. Podlesh, a Ray Guy award semifinalist, averaged 42.3 yards a year ago and in 2004 maintains a 44.7-yard average (ninth-best in the nation). His 40.6 net average leads the ACC and is seventh in the NCAA.
Though battling injuries, Steve Suter is still one of the more dangerous punt and kickoff return men in the league.
Maryland is eighth in the league in kickoff returns at 19.9 and in punt returns with a 7.38 return average. The ‘Hoos are second in the league in kickoff returns at 27.7 and third in punt returns at 12.8.
THE EDGE
Quarterbacks – Virginia
Running Backs – Virginia
Offensive Line – Virginia
Wide Receivers – Even
Tight Ends – Virginia
Defensive Line – Even
Linebackers – Virginia
Secondary – Maryland
Special Teams – Maryland
Coaching – Maryland
STONE-COLD LOCK PREDICTION
On paper it’s hard to imagine the Wahoos losing this contest, especially in Scott Stadium. But as is often said, the games aren’t played on paper. The Terps took a huge step toward avoiding a losing season last week against the ‘Noles but a bowl bid is still not a guarantee.
The key to a Virginia victory begins at the line of scrimmage. If Virginia has success running the football it will open up the passing game and make it a long day for the Terps. But the Maryland run defense is formidable and will likely require the Cavaliers to try and open up the run game with the pass.
The Terps have been most effective when they have been able to maintain possession and move the ball down the field first down to first down. Virginia needs to force Maryland into second and third and long, and limit its success converting third downs, thus preventing the Terps from sustaining drives.
The ‘Hoos need to win the field position battle, not give up any big plays and avoid turnovers and special teams breakdowns.
The week off allowed some key Cavaliers to heal and of course has afforded the staff an extended chance to game plan. College football is a game of great emotion and the FSU win was an emotional one for Maryland. Can the Terps get up and play at the same high emotional level they did against the ‘Noles? They’ll have to and they won’t.
Like most good defenses, the Terps stiffen in the red zone and Virginia will need to take advantage of every opportunity inside the 20. Preferably with touchdowns but, if not, the kicking must be on.
Finally, road teams in the ACC are 11-17 in conference play and 15-22 overall. Maryland hasn’t won in Scott Stadium since 1990 and will not in 2004.
I think if the Cavs can score 21, they’ll win, but 21 has been hard to come by against the Terps. Still, I think the Virginia offense will sting the Terps and three field goals by Connor Hughes will be the difference.
Virginia 23, Maryland 16
John’s take: Even before Maryland beat Florida State last weekend, I thought this would be a dangerous game for Virginia. The Terrapins have had two constants all year — strong defense and special teams — and that has kept them in every game. Their offense has undermined them, costing them games against West Virginia, Georgia Tech, N.C. State and Clemson. Even so, they didn’t give up more than 20 points to any of those teams. Just a smidge more offense and we’re talking about an opponent that’s 6-2 or 7-1.
It’s not like Maryland’s offense is incapable. It produced 45 points against Temple, 55 against Duke and 20 against Florida State. Josh Allen, who ran for 257 yards against Virginia last year, is still around. Sammy Maldonado is another tough back, and Vernon Davis is exactly the kind of player who has given the Cavs fits this season — an H-back who can exploit the middle of the Cover 2 defense. UVa’s linebackers are good pass rushers and run stoppers, but pass defense remains their chief weakness. Add to that the fact that the Wahoos haven’t been the same defensively since Chris Canty’s injury, and there are plenty of causes for concern.
Still, I like Virginia’s chances for a couple reasons — quarterback and home field. Marques Hagans has been much more consistent than Joel Statham. Even considering his performance against Duke, when he was clearly not himself because of the hip injury, Hagans has been the premier passer, playmaker and leader in the conference. Statham, meanwhile, has looked like a scared sophomore. I think he’ll make more mistakes than Hagans and, in a defensive battle, he won’t be able to improvise enough under pressure on the road. Hagans won’t have a big passing game, in my opinion, but he’ll make a few key plays with his legs.
Regardless, I think it’ll be close. In fact, it won’t shock me if Virginia loses. But the guess here is that won’t happen. Darryl Blackstock will have his breakout game on defense, Hagans will do the job on offense and Connor Hughes will come through if needed.
John’s prediction: Virginia 17, Maryland 13
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