Like last year, Virginia will ease into the 2005 season with a soft September. The two home games against Western Michigan and Duke should be easy wins, but the trip to Syracuse is a potential stumbling block. Here are 10 things you should know about each opponent, including what’s to like, what’s not to like, some stellar stats and dubious distinctions, and the take of their play-by-play announcers.
Western Michigan
Sept. 3, 6 p.m.
At Scott Stadium
The Basics
2004 Record: 1-10
Bowl Game: None
Returning Starters – Offense (8)
Returning Starters – Defense (6)
Returning Starters – Special Teams (0)
What’s to like? There’s nowhere to go but up and the team has started camp with a renewed enthusiasm and a “we can do it attitude.” Much of the offensive firepower returns in 2005 as the top quarterback, the top three rushers and the top two receivers will be back this season.
What’s not to like? The Broncos are one of the youngest teams in the nation, according to college football analyst Phil Steele. Out of 119 Division 1-A programs, Western Michigan is the 112th-most experienced team. They have installed a new defense (converting from the 4-2-5 to a 4-3) and have a new offensive coordinator, so expect some early bumps along the way in transition.
Stellar Stats: The Broncos have won three of their last four season openers by a margin of 138-24. Their lone loss was a 26-21 defeat at the hands of Michigan State in 2003.
Dubious Distinctions: Over the last four seasons the Broncos are 0-9 against BCS opponents. To their credit, they have played nine teams that combined for a 72-42 record during that span. Against current ACC opponents, Western Michigan is 0-4, losing those four games by a combined score of 183 -16. The Broncos lost to Virginia 59-16 in 2003 and the other three losses were all to Virginia Tech.
Interesting fact: The 2005 season will mark Western Michigan’s 100th year of football competition.
Play-by-play take: According to Robin Hook, the play-by-play voice of the Broncos, more players were on campus for the summer off-season program than ever before. “The record was 1-10 last year but this was not a 1-10 team,” says Hook. “There is an improved quality of player here now and more speed than we’ve had in a while. You immediately notice the improved attitude and the enthusiasm of the players at practice.”
Fearless Prediction: Don’t be shocked if Western Michigan is not only the most improved team in the MAC, but also ends the season with a winning record.
Make or break game: Northern Illinois – With winnable games against Southern Illinois, Temple, Buffalo, Ball State and Kent State on the slate, the Broncos could be 5-5 when they meet the Huskies on November 22.
Early take against the ‘Hoos: If you enjoy power running and vanilla offense, this is the must see game of the week for you. Personally, I like the Steve Spurrier method of opening games against weak opponents – get your offense installed and the timing of the passing game down, use the first half as a preseason scrimmage, score 47 points and rest the starters in the fourth quarter. From a development standpoint, the Virginia secondary and the new starters at outside linebacker will get ample opportunities to test their pass rush and coverage skills as the Broncos will throw early and often.
Syracuse
Sept. 17, noon
At the Carrier Dome
The Basics
2004 Record: 6-6
Bowl Game: 51-14 loss to Georgia Tech in the Citrus Bowl
Returning Starters – Offense (5)
Returning Starters – Defense (9)
Returning Starters – Special Teams (2)
What’s to like? There is solid personnel on defense but new head coach Greg Robinson , who has a defensive pedigree, will need to get more consistency from a defense that yielded 28 points per game last season.
What’s not? Plenty. With the installation of the West Coast offense and fluidity at the quarterback position, it’s unlikely Syracuse will be rolling offensively early. There are big holes to fill on special teams and a very difficult out-of-conference slate with Notre Dame and Florida State on the schedule as well as Virginia.
Stellar Stats: Since 1999, the Orange is 12-4 vs. non-conference opponents in the Carrier Dome.
Dubious Distinctions: Over the last five seasons, Syracuse is 5-13 against current ACC members.
Interesting facts and rumor mill: You thought Ahmad Brooks was a fast big guy? Keep an eye on speedy defensive end Ryan LaCasse (Sr., 6-3, 249, 4.37 40-yard dash). He won the Massachusetts state sprint championship and the record he broke was held by former New York Giant running back Joe Morris.
Newcomer Lavar Lobdell (6-2, 185) was an 11th-hour signee for Robinson from Christian Brothers Academy, located just five minutes away from the Carrier Dome. Lobdell turned down offers from USC and Miami and many believe it was Pete Carroll’s way of throwing his good buddy Robinson a bone. The home folks are clamoring to see the local product play and Lobdell might see action against the ‘Hoos.
Play-by-play take: “Conceivably the record could be worse and you could say the program is in a better position than it was,” says Matt Park, the Voice of the Orange. “I could see this team in the neighborhood of 5-6 or 6-5 or I could see them busting out of the gate. Of course it would take a win over West Virginia and it would take a strong showing or a win over UVa. If they build any sort of momentum with three straight games to start the year, one of which is a layup against Buffalo, then all of a sudden there’s talk all across the country and look at what’s happening here.”
Fearless Prediction: The Orange will begin the season 1-3 but win five of its last seven to finish above .500.
Make or break game: Virginia – The Orange faces back-to-back ACC opponents in Virginia and Florida State before entering the meat of the Big East schedule. The likelihood of a win in Tallahassee, even with the problems in Seminole Country, is minimal. If the ‘Cuse is to establish any momentum entering the Big East slate, they must get a win over West Virginia or the Cavaliers. A loss could mean a 1-3 start and a difficult task remaining to reach the .500 mark.
Early take against the ‘Hoos: This is a huge out-of-conference road game for Virginia. It’s a huge road game, period. The good news is that Syracuse will still be learning Robinson’s system and Virginia will have the benefit of an off week while the Orange entertains Buffalo on September 10th. The ‘Cuse starts the season with three home games and the Carrier Dome has proven to be a difficult place for opposing teams to play. If the Orange upsets West Virginia, the house will packed for the ‘Hoos and we’ll see how the Cavs handle their first game in a dome stadium since the 1998 Peach Bowl. However, if Syracuse has a poor outing against the Mountaineers, look for about 10,000 empty seats as was the norm last season, and for Virginia to handle the Orange and get a big road win and a 2-0 start.
Duke
Sept. 24
At Scott Stadium
The Basics
2004 Record: 2-9
Bowl Game: None
Returning Starters – Offense (7)
Returning Starters – Defense (7
Returning Starters – Special Teams (0)
What’s to like? The defense. Yes, the Blue Devils were 10th in the ACC in scoring defense, allowing 29.3 points per game in large part due to the loss of defensive ends Micah Harris (killed in a car accident) and Phillip Alexander (injury). Alexander is back and highly touted freshman end Vince Oghobaase (6-6, 325) was in for spring drills and will play immediately. The linebackers are solid and the secondary returns four players with speed and starting experience.
What’s not to like? Duke played 13 freshmen last year and secured one of its best recruiting classes in recent memory, yet the Devils still lag well behind most of the ACC teams in talent, especially when it comes to the second and third units. They have scrapped the ineffective spread offense for a new, more balanced attack, predicated on running the football. New offenses always come with some early-season struggles. Depth and cohesion are still a concern with the offensive line and development here will say a lot about Duke’s fortunes in 2005.
Stellar Stats: Duke led the ACC last season in fewest penalties (57) and fewest penalty yards assessed (411).
Dubious Distinctions: In the last 40 years, Duke has had just three seasons in which it won more than six games. Since 1994, the Devils have won just nine ACC contests.
Rumor Mill: According to new offensive coordinator Billy O’Brien, quarterback Mike Schneider (150-253, 1,527 yards, 8 TDs, 7 INTs) has made unbelievable progress in picking up the new offense and looks poised for a solid season.
Play-by-play take: “The thing that really jumps out about this 2005 Duke football team is the fact that for the first time in the history of Duke football the entire roster was on campus for summer school,” says longtime Duke play-by-play announcer Bob Harris. “They’ve been together for several weeks now, working out on their own, and it’s one of those situations where they don’t have to shake hands and introduce themselves the first day of practice. That has brought this team probably closer together than any team Duke has ever had, and that’s important because Duke has got to learn to win. Much like the basketball team had to do back in the early ’80s, they have to get that confidence in knowing that they have talent and they can win football games. Last year they knew they could compete, they knew they could be in every game. This year they’ve got to know that they can win. Once they do that, once they taste a couple of victories early, I think that’s going to translate.”
Fearless Prediction: The Blue Devils will surpass their two-win total of 2004. Duke will break the 20-ppg scoring mark and will fall below the 26-ppg allowed on defense. Neither has occurred in the last six years.
Make or break game: Wake Forest – The Wake game, in Durham, will be the difference between a three-win season and a four-win season for the Devils.
Early take against the ‘Hoos: The Duke-Virginia game has always brought with it a bit of trepidation for Virginia fans. In 1999, Virginia lost in overtime to a Duke team that finished the season 3-8. In 2002, the Devils pounded out 189 rushing yards and ate up 36 minutes of clock but Virginia escaped their clutches with a 27-22 win. The other three seasons under Al Groh, the Cavaliers defeated Duke by an average of 23 points per game. Look for lots of Wali Lundy, Michael Johnson and Cedric Peerman , and a solid but unspectacular win.
