The internet home for Hoos anywhere and everywhere.
Cross-posting Kris Wright’s impressive analysis of the remaining schedule (
) for the men’s basketball team to see what needs to be done to secure a spot in the NCAA tourney.
Basically, we need to sweep the home games and pick up a road win or two. That’s the 5-cent-version, and it doesn’t do Kris’s great article justice. I think his method of analyzing our tourney hopes is simply ingenious.
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Dave Leitao’s team is on pace to be a bubble team with a strong NCAA Tournament case. |
Prior to the start of the 2006-07 season, the Sabre pulled out its crystal ball, an abacus, two rulers, and a TI-85 graphing calculator to break down the men’s basketball team schedule and the most likely route to the NCAA Tournament. OK, fine. You’re right. We just used a Magic 8 ball. Regardless, the Hoos are 19 games into their schedule and a March dance party is a definite possibility.
Let’s revisit the analysis and see where the Cavaliers stand based on the Sabre’s three-part schedule breakdown:
Each game was placed in a particular category based on preseason expectations and last year’s success in order to determine the most likely route to the NCAA Tournament.
The San Juan Shootout and Clemson’s fast start caused a couple of wrinkles in the analysis, which you’ll see below. So how are the Hoos doing so far?
This category is cupcake central for the most part with the exception of some ACC home games and what was supposed to be a cakewalk in San Juan. The Cavaliers’ double hiccup in Puerto Rico shuffled this category from 13 possible wins to 12, thanks to the fact that the Hoos’ only win in the San Juan Shootout essentially won’t count in the NCAA selection process (Puerto Rico-Mayaguez is not a D-1 opponent).
Still, UVa, as any NCAA Tournament hopeful would, has fared well in this category to date. The team owns wins over Morgan State, UNC Asheville, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Hampton, and American. A win against Longwood is expected as well, which should give the Hoos a perfect 6-0 record against the cupcakes.
The San Juan Shootout had been slated for “2 must wins” in the original article, but the Cavaliers will get 0 wins in this category thanks to a dismal showing against Utah, a team that will not make the NCAA field barring a conference tourney miracle, and a win that doesn’t count against Puerto Rico-Mayaguez. That means the Cavs get an 0-1 mark here.
The ACC portion of the schedule has gone as planned so far with home wins against Wake Forest and N.C. State. The Cavs still have Virginia Tech and Miami at home in this category as well as Wake Forest on the road. For now, that leaves them with a 2-0 record.
All in all, Virginia is covering its basis in this category. The biggest problem here is the loss of two projected wins, which the Hoos will have to make up elsewhere in order to go dancing. The good news is that the Cavaliers may already have at least one of the “make-up victories” in hand, barring any more setbacks in this category. More on that later.
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Sean Singletary and the Hoos need to keep winning. |
This category is arguably the most important for a bubble team looking to make the NCAA Tournament. Victories in this category push you toward the total-win plateau needed (usually at least 18 unless you have a great RPI) to get the committee’s attention. Plus, most of the games in this category are either quality non-conference or ACC games. That’s where the RPI can climb or fall rapidly with wins and losses.
The minimum requirement for this section is to go as close to .500 as possible – anything above and beyond that directly increases your chances of making the dance.
So far, UVa is doing fine in this category as well, though the non-conference portion won’t be as helpful as it could have been. The San Juan Shootout’s first round game replaced what could have been the title game down there if things had gone as expected/hoped. To make matters worse, it goes down as a loss here. The only upside is Appalachian State’s potential to become an NCAA Tournament team.
The same could be said for Purdue, which has looked reasonably good in Big Ten play. Still, that late-game loss means the Cavs went 0-2 in potential RPI-boosting non-conference games.
Then there’s the Gonzaga-Stanford double dip. Virginia split in those two games, letting what would have been a valuable win over the Cardinal slip away in the final seconds. Of course, the Hoos did blow out the Zags, which should be a quality win when Selection Sunday gets here. The Hoos went 1-1 in this two-game stretch and that’s a bare minimum for this category.
Unfortunately, a 1-3 out-of-conference record here isn’t very impressive. That probably means that UVa will have to make up the difference with ACC games in this category. So far, so good in that regard.
The Cavaliers have a home win over Maryland and a road win at N.C. State in this category to date to go with a loss at Boston College. That leaves away games with Miami, Virginia Tech, and Maryland on the schedule to go with home games against Florida State and Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were originally in the résumé builder section, but they seem to be a middle of the pack ACC team at this point while Clemson appears to be a potential NCAA Tournament team. With that in mind, those two teams flip-flopped positions for this analysis.
The Cavaliers’ record at this point in the season places an added emphasis on the home games with FSU and GT in this category – in many ways, those should be considered crucial at this point if the Hoos are trying to finish above .500 in the 50/50 category.
This four-game category focuses on the games that will help push you over the top if you are a bubble team. Marquee wins so to speak. As mentioned above, Clemson has been moved to this category as a road game against a top 25 team, while Georgia Tech appears to be just another ACC home game.
The Cavaliers are sitting in prime position in this section. Other than a competitive loss at UNC, UVa already has two victories in this category. The Hoos handed highly regarded Arizona (at least then) a loss in the season opener. They also added a come-from-behind win for the ages at Clemson this weekend, outscoring the Tigers 15-0 down the stretch to erase a double-digit deficit. One of those wins essentially replaces one of the “two projected must-win games” from the top category, meaning that Virginia is on pace to reach the necessary total win plateau (usually around 18 for at-large berths).
Since the Cavs currently own a 2-1 record in this category, the final game of the résumé builder section looms large this Thursday when Duke comes to the John Paul Jones Arena. The game with the Blue Devils could leave UVa in very good shape as the February portion of the 50/50 schedule arrives.
* Note: UVa would be 21-10 in the revised projection with the Puerto Rico-Mayaguez game not counting in the analysis.
