The previous two seasons under defensive coordinator Dean Hood, Wake played conservatively on defense, utilizing a “bend but don’t break” attitude that puts an emphasis on avoiding big plays. That doesn’t mean they didn’t try to make plays on the ball (obviously they did), but it wasn’t a very aggressive scheme. Under Lambert we have seen a slightly more aggressive approach, one that brings more pressure and allows the guys to react instinctively as the play develops.
The Deacons are allowing just 18.4 points per game in 2008 and have allowed 16 or fewer points in four of eight games this season.
With that in mind, let’s take a closer look:
Statistics
- Wake Forest ranks 34th in the nation and seventh in the ACC in total defense and 23rd nationally in scoring defense. A year ago, the Deacons were seventh in the ACC in scoring defense, yielding 22.2 points per game.
- The Demon Deacons are 12-4 over the last two seasons at BB&T Field, including wins over No. 21 FSU last season and No. 16 BC in 2006.
- WFU is 4-0 this season when it forces three or more turnovers. It is 1-3 when creating two or fewer take-aways.
Personnel & Strategy
Strategy. Wake runs a traditional 4-3 set focused on forcing sustained, error-free drives and not giving up big gains. The Deacons are a veteran team and a disciplined team. They create turnovers and rarely make mistakes. They create opportunities for themselves and Virginia needs to limit these opportunities.
WFU is eighth in the ACC by giving up 3.63 YPC rushing. The Deacs allow 4.01 YPC on first down and opponents are converting 47% of their rushing third downs. The defense does a lot a pre-snap shifting and stunting and Wake will morph into a 3-3-5 set and at times will bring an additional LB to the line of scrimmage for a 5-2 look similar to what Virginia Tech does with its rover alignment. Wake’s style of play is more reactive than aggressive, but the players up front are adept at getting penetration as evidenced by 26 non-sack tackles for loss. The secondary excels in run support.
Look for Wake to play a two-deep zone and require the safeties to cover a lot of territory. That makes the shallow and medium routes between the seams appealing, but the Deacons’ play-making linebackers make that a risky proposition. Wake frequently plays a loose, deep zone and creates turnovers by baiting the offense to test that approach with deep post and seam routes.
The corners are very good defenders too, especially Alphonso Smith. They typically line up 7 to 8 yards off the line of scrimmage so flares, screens, and quick-hitters off of play-action could be effective. WFU’s corners tend to be very aggressive and are susceptible to double moves. I would expect to see quick passes to the outside early used to set up double-move routes later.
The Wake tendency is to bring its linebackers for QB pressure, particularly Aaron Curry, who possesses exceptional speed and instincts. Stanley Arnoux (#43) tends to stay back in coverage, but is a playmaker in his own right. Arnoux has 3.5 sacks this season and an interception. Wake will blitz anyone at anytime and though it does bring corners and safeties, the pressure comes mostly from the linebackers. Virginia should also be aware of zone blitzes as Wake will drop ends into coverage and often combine that with a twist from one of the interior linemen.
Personnel. Nine starters returned from a unit that led the nation a year ago with eight defensive touchdowns. Linebacker Aaron Curry
The cornerback tandem of Smith and Brandon Ghee
Curry, a preseason All-American, is one of 20 collegiate defensive players to earn a spot on the Lott Trophy quarterfinalist list. He leads the Deacons with 72 tackles and nine tackles for losses this season. He recorded a career-best 16 tackles in the win over Duke on Nov. 1. Curry will play despite injuries to his neck and shoulder. And if he plays anywhere close to as well as he played against Duke, then his impact will be felt. Two other fifth-year seniors round out Wake’s outstanding linebacking trio.
Agile nose tackle Boo Robinson (#96) is a major headache for opposing offensive lines. He leads the club in sacks and is fourth in tackles for loss. DE Matt Robinson (#42) took over the starting spot in mid-season last year and has been effective at times in 2008 with five tackles for loss but only one sack. Fellow end Kyle Weber (#97) and tackle John Russell (#51) are first-year starters still growing into their roles.
First down. Despite returning the bulk of the 2007 defense this season, Wake has had trouble stopping opposing offenses this season on first down. The run defense allows 4.01 YPC on first down but is still pretty effective at limiting big plays in the running game. The Deacs have been leaky this season against first down passing with opponents completing 58.5% of their passes for a 7.4 yards per pass average and teams are moving the sticks on one of every four first down passing attempts.
Virginia completes 60% of its first down passes and is averaging 6.2 YPP. Rushing, the Hoos average 3.68 YPC and 4.9 yards per play overall. Virginia was very inconsistent on first down against Miami, putting up solid numbers but doing so on big plays. I’d like to see the Cavaliers focus a little more on possession passes while showing a little more patience with the passing game and taking what the defense gives. With the CB usually well off the line of scrimmage, flares, screens, and quick-hitters off of play-action could be effective.
Third down. In another un-Wake-like stat, opponents are 14 of 14 converting third downs in third-and-short situations (less than three yards) with the run. This is evidence of the Demon Deacons’ bend-but-don’t-break, wait-for-a-mistake philosophy. On third-and-short and third-and-medium, teams are actually doing well with a 60% conversion rate – 17 of 22 rushing (77%) and 14 conversions in 30 attempts passing (46%),
Like most teams, Wake has a high percentage in stopping opponents in third-and-long situations and 54% of the time against the Deacons, teams are facing third-and-long situations. Against the run, Wake is limiting opponents to an amazing 6% conversion rate (1-16) on third-and-long. Against the pass, the Deacons limit opponents to a 48% completion percentage and have surrendered just 10 conversions in 48 chances (22%). Overall, WFU has allowed just 11 conversions in 62 long situation attempts (17%).
The most successful teams this season against WFU on third down were Navy, Miami, and Maryland. Navy completed 3 of 4 passes and converted two times. Miami was 7 of 13 in the air, converting 5 of 13 chances. The Terps were 5-of-11 passing and converted 4 times. The three teams, all Wake losses, combined to complete 54% of their attempts and converted 11 of 28 (40%) times. The remaining Wake opponents have completed 50% of their passes but converted just 27% to first downs.
Red zone. The Cavs have scored 119 of a possible 182 points (65%) in the red zone and they are 87th in the country in red zone touchdown scoring percentage. Wake is 117th in red zone defense and has allowed 112 points to be scored out of a possible 147 (76%). But Wake Forest is a little stingier when it comes to TDs giving up 13 six-pointers in 21 chances (62%).
The numbers say passing is the way to go in this part of the field against the Deacons. Opponents are scoring a TD every three (3) passes against Wake’s defense but a TD only once every 3.71 plays against the running defense. While teams average 4.3 yards per pass, they produce only 3.08 running. Despite the numbers, however, the best way to move the ball against WFU is to line up and run the football at the defense in the red zone. If the Cavaliers have success with the run here, that should draw the linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage and open up what I believe will be the key passing match-up in the red zone – the Virginia tight ends vs. the Wake safeties.
PUNTING AND KICKOFF COVERAGE
Punting. Expect to see a lot of fair catches this week as only 7 of Wake’s 42 punts this season have been returned; 16 of Wake’s punts have been fair caught and 18 have been placed inside the 20. The Deacs lead the nation in punt coverage giving up just five total yards all season (0.71 YPR). Despite the outstanding coverage, Wake is 47th in the nation in net punting with a 35.98 average. The Cavaliers are 90th in the nation in punt returns with 6.57 YPR.
Kickoff Coverage. The loss of kicker Sam Swank is certainly felt by the Deacs in placement but his loss is also apparent on kickoffs. Swank’s kickoffs typically were received at the 5-yard line; without Swank, opponents’ returns are starting at the 12. Popham does not have the loft of Swank so returns are getting to the runner faster as well and that has led to longer returns. With Swank, teams were averaging starting field position of the 22.8. Without Swank, opponents are starting at the 36. The Cavaliers are averaging 20.42 YPR and this is an aspect of the game where UVa’s struggling special teams could have a big impact.
Plays That Could Hurt Virginia
Wake pass defense. While Wake is certainly not an overly aggressive coverage group (playing mostly zone), the DBs are a risk-taking bunch and will jump routes to force the action. Opponents are completing just 54.5% of their passes against Wake (4th best in the ACC). The Deacons have batted down 32 passes this season and intercepted 12. Still, opponents are averaging a decent 6.4 yards per pass and opponents that have thrown the ball well against Wake have had the most success this season.
Virginia’s Offensive Keys
- Ball security. Wake is among the worst scoring teams in the nation (102nd) and is ranked 114th in the NCAA in red zone TD scoring. This is not an offense that can generate a lot of points thus it is imperative that Virginia not aid that effort by giving the ball away, especially creating short field scoring chances. Wake creates its own opportunities and Virginia must limit these opportunities, protect the football, and sustain drives in order to prevent Wake from getting good field position. The Deacs will capitalize when opponents make mistakes so Virginia needs to keep turnovers at a minimum and down-and-distance execution at a premium.
The Duke game is not even a contest were it not for Wake converting three Duke turnovers into touchdowns. The only Wake game this season in which the team with more turnovers won was at Maryland. The Terps turned it over twice, while Wake had no turnovers in the 26-0 loss. In its 16-10 loss at Miami on Oct. 25, Wake was unable to force a turnover by its opponent for just the second time since the start of the 2006 season. Of Wake’s 155 points scored this season, 66 have come off 24 opponent turnovers. Last year, the Deacs had 108 points off 35 forced turnovers.
- Stay out of third-and-long. As we noted earlier, WFU has allowed just 11 conversions in 62 long situation attempts (17%). Against Miami, Virginia was very inconsistent on first down and had an average of 6.6 yards to go on second down in the first half (9.45 to go in the second); 13 of Virginia’s second downs required seven or more yards to move the chains. That often led to tough third down situations. That has to improve this week as UVa has converted just 16 of 68 third-and-longs this season (24%).
- Attack the corners. Wake’s ability to score on defense via the interception is well known and I think Virginia can use that reputation against the Deacs. The Wake corners are very aggressive but appear susceptible to double moves. Brandon Ghee is fundamentally sound, but will be returning after a two-game absence. The corners are small (all under 5-10) and are vulnerable to jump ball situations. The Hoos need to also attack the edges with the run but not with stretch plays, reverses, counters, or misdirection plays as the disciplined Wake defense sees it every day in practice and defends it well. Virginia should look to go off-tackle and run at the interior of the defense with its inside zone attack before bouncing it outside. Don’t look for a lot of force run plays, but I do believe UVa will go off-tackle and move the defensive ends out to seal those inside running lanes. Downfield blocking by the WRs is also very important in order open up cutback lanes for Virginia’s backs.
- Handle the linebackers and limit pressure on Verica. A key to limiting the effectiveness of Wake’s ball-hawking defense is to limit the pressure on the QB and force the Deacs to pay for blitzing. Verica needs time to survey the field, go through his progressions, and find the open receivers. We’ve noted the play of the secondary but it’s the pressure of the linebackers that makes the WFU defense effective. Virginia’s offensive game plan needs to neutralize this operation, using the tight ends, and backs on short passes to keep the linebackers from being overly aggressive. When the linebackers do blitz, the protection must execute because the backers can make plays and force turnovers. The quarterback needs to deliver the ball quickly; if he is in trouble, he needs to get the ball to the hot receiver. Again, take what the defense gives and be patient.
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