As college basketball teams speed into late February, the NCAA Tournament picture jumps into focus. Fans across the country wait anxiously to see where their teams’ chances are as games and opportunities dwindle. This week’s bracketology projections look at where teams are as of 1 p.m. on Monday, Feb. 19.
My bracket is part of the bracket matrix under entry RWX and can be viewed here. It is my 7th year doing a bracket and you can see my ranking here. Last year I finished tied for 4th for the most accurate bracket! I’m sharing my bracketology here on TheSabre.com. Discuss it on the message board.
For Sabre fans, Virginia picked up a big win Saturday over Wake Forest. This was a Q2 win and with NC State moving into the NET top 75 again for now (No. 75 this morning), the Hoos now have 2 Q1 wins and 5 Q2 wins with one bad loss (Q3 at Notre Dame). The 7-5 record vs. Q1/Q2 and 14-6 record vs. Q1/Q2/Q3 is pretty good. The resume metrics are pretty good as well (KPI/SOR average of 27). I have UVA has my last 8 seed with this projection, 14 teams clear of safely in the field.
Virginia is now 4-1 in this big 9-game stretch of Q1/Q2 games with 4 left. But this may be the toughest stretch of the season with 3 tough road games and 1 very tough home game on deck. Gaming things out if UVA lost all 4 of these and beat GT to end the regular season, I think the Hoos would likely be just barely in or just barely out heading into the ACC Tournament. In that scenario at worst you have to avoid a bad loss and may need a quality win in the conference tourney. Remember a win over a NET top 100 team on a neutral floor counts as a quality win. I THINK winning one of the next 4 and GT to end the season would likely be enough to get in, but as always dependent on who you beat and what other teams around you do. A 3-2 finish would have Virginia in the field easily.
The Virginia Tech game is a tough but winnable game on the road in Blacksburg. A win here would take a lot of pressure off.
Here’s the full bracketology for this update.
| Seed | Power | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | UConn* |
| 1 | 2 | Purdue* |
| 1 | 3 | Houston* |
| 1 | 4 | Arizona* |
| 2 | 5 | North Carolina* |
| 2 | 6 | Tennessee |
| 2 | 7 | Marquette |
| 2 | 8 | Kansas |
| 3 | 9 | Alabama* |
| 3 | 10 | Baylor |
| 3 | 11 | Iowa St. |
| 3 | 12 | Duke |
| 4 | 13 | San Diego St.* |
| 4 | 14 | Illinois |
| 4 | 15 | Creighton |
| 4 | 16 | Auburn |
| 5 | 17 | Wisconsin |
| 5 | 18 | Dayton* |
| 5 | 19 | Texas Tech |
| 5 | 20 | Clemson |
| 6 | 21 | Kentucky |
| 6 | 22 | Colorado St. |
| 6 | 23 | Florida |
| 6 | 24 | Michigan St. |
| 7 | 25 | Saint Mary's (CA)* |
| 7 | 26 | Oklahoma |
| 7 | 27 | BYU |
| 7 | 28 | South Carolina |
| 8 | 29 | Utah St. |
| 8 | 30 | Washington St. |
| 8 | 31 | Northwestern |
| 8 | 32 | Virginia |
| 9 | 33 | Boise St. |
| 9 | 34 | Fla. Atlantic |
| 9 | 35 | TCU |
| 9 | 36 | Nebraska |
| 10 | 37 | Texas |
| 10 | 38 | Nevada |
| 10 | 39 | Grand Canyon* |
| 10 | 40 | New Mexico |
| 11 | 41 | Butler |
| 11 | 42 | Mississippi St. |
| 11a | 43 | Utah |
| 11a | 44 | Ole Miss |
| 11b | 45 | Texas A&M |
| 11b | 46 | Providence |
| 12 | 47 | Indiana St.* |
| 12 | 48 | McNeese* |
| 12 | 49 | South Fla.* |
| 12 | 50 | App State* |
| 13 | 51 | Samford* |
| 13 | 52 | Yale* |
| 13 | 53 | Akron* |
| 13 | 54 | UC Irvine* |
| 14 | 55 | Louisiana Tech* |
| 14 | 56 | Vermont* |
| 14 | 57 | Charleston* |
| 14 | 58 | Morehead St.* |
| 15 | 59 | Oakland* |
| 15 | 60 | High Point* |
| 15 | 61 | Eastern Washington* |
| 15 | 62 | Colgate* |
| 16 | 63 | Quinnipiac* |
| 16 | 64 | Southern* |
| 16a | 65 | Norfolk St.* |
| 16a | 66 | South Dakota St.* |
| 16b | 67 | Eastern Kentucky* |
| 16b | 68 | Merrimack* |
- Last Four In: Providence, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Utah
- First Four Out: Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Gonzaga
- Next Four Out: Colorado, Villanova, Oregon, Pittsburgh
When you look at the rest of the bracket, the teams in my bracket stayed the same as the Friday update. It is getting hard to sift the bottom of the bracket. Ole Miss is my third team in and they have good resume metrics (KPI=26, SOR=21), but the NET is mediocre at 65 and the performance metrics are quite bad (average of 71.5). The team has 3 Q1 wins and 2Q2 wins which isn’t great but not terrible, and no bad losses. So it will be difficult to get in if the Rebels don’t get hot.
Texas A&M is 6-5 in Q1 which is great and 2-1 in Q2 but they have 4 Q3 losses! Arkansas comes to town this week in the last chance for a bad loss on the resume pre SEC Tournament, a defeat there could be too much to overcome. Providence has no bad losses 4 Q1 wins, 3 Q2 wins, and OK metrics. The NET isnt great at 59. Seton Hall has 5 Q1 wins, 2 Q2 wins but 2 Q3 losses. Their resume metrics are better than Providence, but the NET is worse at 63 with the aforementioned 2 bad losses. The Friars are another interesting case.
Cincy has a classic mediocre power conference resume but could go either way. Wake Forest lost again this weekend but by virtue of Florida moving into the top 30, the Demon Deacons now have a Q1 win and 4 Q2 wins with no bad losses and pretty good metrics. They probably still need to add a couple of Q1 wins. Gonzaga is going to have to likely win out and avoid a bad loss at the WCC Tournament to get in, although winning out but losing to St. Mary’s at the end of the regular season and again in the conference tourney could also be enough.
Notes on my selection process:
- I don’t create matchups. My goal is to match the NCAA S Curve and select the right teams. Honestly the bracketing procedures are too tedious.
- Conference champions (* teams) in the pre-conference tournament brackets are picked by the team with the highest conference winning % at time of bracket creation. If there is a tie, the team with the highest NET is picked.
