College Basketball Bracketology: Conference Play Heats Up

College basketball season is entering the thick of conference play. That means bracketology talk is heating up too. Let’s see where things stand.

My bracket is part of the bracket matrix under entry RWX. It is my 6th year doing a bracket and you can see my ranking here. I’m sharing my bracketology here on TheSabre.com. Discuss it on the message board.

First the Hoos since that’s where the most interest sits for many of you. I moved Virginia up 3 spots on my S curve after the weekend’s action, shifting the Cavaliers ahead of Arizona, Tennessee, and UConn. At this point, you can make an argument for UVA being a 3 or 4 seed and I wouldn’t have a big issue. Virginia’s biggest problem is that it will just not have the opportunities to pick up the amount of Q1/Q2 wins that other teams will and the Wahoos still have some land mines out there.

So far Virginia has played 6 Q1 games (3-3 record) and 1 Q2 game (1-0 record).

If you take the schedule literally and assume no ones NET changes, (obviously a bad assumption but lets just make it for simplicity sake), UVA has this break down on their remaining 13 games:

• Q1: 4
• Q2: 4
• Q3: 1
• Q4: 4

That means the Hoos have 8 total Q1/Q2 games left so with their current 7 added in it would give them a total of 15 Q1/Q2 games on the year prior to the ACC Tournament. Last year, teams towards the top of the bracket from the B1G, B12, and SEC had around 20-25 games against Q1/Q2 opportunities. Including the ACC Tournament, it means for UVA to get a 1 seed, it would likely have to run the table. For a 2 seed, it could probably afford 1 or 2 losses. For a 3 seed, which is the most likely ceiling, the Wahoos probably have to avoid any Q3/Q4 losses, win 5 or 6 of the Q1/Q2 games remaining, and avoid a bad ACCT loss.

This is why I think their realistic seed range is likely 3-5.

On tap this week, there’s a Q2 chance at home vs. VT and a Q2 (close to Q1 as Wake’s NET is 76) chance at Wake Forest. This is a big week to add some quality wins to the ledger and solidify the Cavaliers’ seed projections.

Here is the full bracketology breakdown through Monday, Jan. 16.

RaleighHOO's Bracketology 2023

Seed	Power	Team
1	1	Houston*
1	2	Kansas*
1	3	Alabama*
1	4	Purdue*
2	5	UCLA*
2	6	Texas
2	7	Arizona
2	8	Baylor
3	9	Kansas St.
3	10	Gonzaga
3	11	Marquette*
3	12	UConn
4	13	Tennessee
4	14	Xavier
4	15	Virginia*
4	16	Indiana
5	17	Miami (FL)
5	18	Saint Mary's (CA)*
5	19	Duke
5	20	Texas A&M
6	21	San Diego St.*
6	22	Northwestern
6	23	Iowa St.
6	24	TCU
7	25	Kentucky
7	26	Creighton
7	27	Michigan St.
7	28	Missouri
8	29	Iowa
8	30	Maryland
8	31	Arkansas
8	32	Illinois
9	33	Memphis
9	34	Auburn
9	35	West Virginia
9	36	Southern California
10	37	Boise St.
10	38	NC State
10	39	Fla. Atlantic*
10	40	Providence
11	41	Penn St.
11	42	Pittsburgh
11a	43	Wisconsin
11a	44	Nevada
11b	45	Utah St.
11b	46	Rutgers
12	47	Col. of Charleston*
12	48	VCU*
12	49	Drake+
12	50	Oral Roberts*
13	51	Utah Valley*
13	52	Toledo*
13	53	Yale*
13	54	Louisiana*
14	55	Iona*
14	56	Furman*
14	57	Kennesaw St.+
14	58	UC Irvine*
15	59	Vermont*
15	60	Colgate*
15	61	Montana St.*
15	62	UNC Asheveille+
16	63	Youngstown St.*
16	64	Grambling*
16a	65	Texas A&M CC*
16a	66	Howard*
16a	67	SE Missouri+
16a	68	Fairleigh Dickinson+

• Last Four In: Ohio St., WVU, Nevada, Arizona St.
• First Four Out: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, USC, Creighton
• Next Four Out: Mississippi St., UCF, Virginia Tech, Oregon

Notes on my selection process:

1. I don’t create matchups. My goal is to match the NCAA S Curve and select the right teams. Honestly the bracketing procedures are too tedious.
2. Conference champions (red teams) in the pre-conference tournament brackets are picked by the team with the highest conference winning % at time of bracket creation. If there is a tie, the team with the highest NET is picked.
3. Brackets will be updated at least on Monday and Friday. As we get closer to the end of the season and during conference tournament weeks, it will be updated every day.