The college basketball calendar flipped to February so hopes and worries about the NCAA Tournament kicked into high gear for fans around the country. This week’s bracketology projections look at where teams are as of 1 p.m. on Thursday, Feb. 8.
My bracket is part of the bracket matrix under entry RWX and can be viewed here. It is my 7th year doing a bracket and you can see my ranking here. Last year I finished tied for 4th for the most accurate bracket! I’m sharing my bracketology here on TheSabre.com. Discuss it on the message board.
For Sabre fans,the Hoos have had a pretty dramatic turnaround in just a week going from out of the bracket to in pretty solidly at the moment. I have them up to a 9 seed, but anywhere from a 9 to 11 seed could be a good argument. At this time of the year, there is still not a lot of difference between resumes of the 35th/36th best teams on the S Curve and the first few teams out of the bracket. Usually more clarity emerges over the next few weeks in bracketology. The Cavaliers have a good resume metric going for them with their average KPI/SOR at 30.5 which is a very solid spot to be.
For UVA, it is in the midst of a 9-game stretch that looked to feature all Q1/Q2 opportunities. So far, the team started 2 for 2 with a Q1 and Q2 win in the bag. The remaining schedule currently shapes up to be this:
- @ FSU Q2
- Pitt Q2
- Wake Forest Q2 (but with a NET of 33 so if it moves into top 30 it is Q1)
- @ VT Q1
- UNC Q1
- @ BC Q2
- @ Duke Q1
- GT Q3
That is good for the Hoos as long as they don’t go on a 3/4 game losing streak. Q1/Q2 losses won’t hurt, but they probably still need a few more Q1/Q2 wins to keep their spot and they need to avoid a loss to Georgia Tech at home to close the season. A loss to FSU this weekend may drop the Wahoos a few spots on the S Curve but not close to the cut line yet. A win would probably solidify them around the 9 seed line.
Here’s the full bracketology for this update.
| Seed | Power | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Purdue* |
| 1 | 2 | UConn* |
| 1 | 3 | Houston* |
| 1 | 4 | Arizona* |
| 2 | 5 | Tennessee |
| 2 | 6 | North Carolina* |
| 2 | 7 | Kansas |
| 2 | 8 | Marquette |
| 3 | 9 | Baylor |
| 3 | 10 | Wisconsin |
| 3 | 11 | Iowa St. |
| 3 | 12 | Duke |
| 4 | 13 | Dayton* |
| 4 | 14 | Illinois |
| 4 | 15 | Auburn |
| 4 | 16 | South Carolina |
| 5 | 17 | Alabama* |
| 5 | 18 | San Diego St. |
| 5 | 19 | Creighton |
| 5 | 20 | Clemson |
| 6 | 21 | Fla. Atlantic* |
| 6 | 22 | Oklahoma |
| 6 | 23 | Kentucky |
| 6 | 24 | Utah St. |
| 7 | 25 | Colorado St. |
| 7 | 26 | BYU |
| 7 | 27 | Utah |
| 7 | 28 | Boise St. |
| 8 | 29 | Texas Tech |
| 8 | 30 | Texas |
| 8 | 31 | Northwestern |
| 8 | 32 | New Mexico* |
| 9 | 33 | Saint Mary's (CA)* |
| 9 | 34 | Virginia |
| 9 | 35 | Nebraska |
| 9 | 36 | TCU |
| 10 | 37 | Butler |
| 10 | 38 | Mississippi St. |
| 10 | 39 | Ole Miss |
| 10 | 40 | Washington St. |
| 11 | 41 | Texas A&M |
| 11 | 42 | Indiana St.* |
| 11 | 43 | Grand Canyon* |
| 11 | 44 | Florida |
| 12a | 45 | Providence |
| 12a | 46 | Michigan St. |
| 12b | 47 | Cincinnati |
| 12b | 48 | Seton Hall |
| 12 | 49 | McNeese* |
| 12 | 50 | Cornell* |
| 13 | 51 | App State* |
| 13 | 52 | Samford* |
| 13 | 53 | UC Irvine* |
| 13 | 54 | Akron* |
| 14 | 55 | Louisiana Tech* |
| 14 | 56 | Vermont* |
| 14 | 57 | High Point* |
| 14 | 58 | Eastern Washington* |
| 15 | 59 | Morehead St.* |
| 15 | 60 | Drexel* |
| 15 | 61 | Colgate* |
| 15 | 62 | Quinnipiac* |
| 16 | 63 | Oakland* |
| 16 | 64 | Southern* |
| 16a | 65 | Norfolk St.* |
| 16a | 66 | South Dakota St.* |
| 16b | 67 | Eastern Kentucky* |
| 16b | 68 | Merrimack* |
- Last Four In: Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Michigan St., Providence
- First Four Out: St. Johns, Nevada, Kansas St., Wake Forest
- Next Four Out: Colorado, Memphis, Xavier, Virginia Tech
Notes on my selection process:
- I don’t create matchups. My goal is to match the NCAA S Curve and select the right teams. Honestly the bracketing procedures are too tedious.
- Conference champions (* teams) in the pre-conference tournament brackets are picked by the team with the highest conference winning % at time of bracket creation. If there is a tie, the team with the highest NET is picked.
