The race for conference superiority and NCAA Tournament bids has closed in on the final weeks of the regular season in college basketball. That means fans are combing through metrics, predictions, and more to see where their teams stack up in bracketology.
My bracket is part of the bracket matrix under entry RWX and can be viewed here. It is my 7th year doing a bracket and you can see my ranking here. Last year I finished tied for 4th for the most accurate bracket! I’m sharing my bracketology here on TheSabre.com. Discuss it on the message board. This bracket release focuses on where teams stand as of 12 p.m. on Friday, Feb. 23.
For Sabre fans,Virginia suffered really the worst case scenario Monday night with the blowout loss to Virginia Tech. This severely hurt UVA’s NET and efficiency metrics and slid the Hoos down from my last 8 seed to now my second 10 seed. That is a six-spot fall on the S Curve.
With the NET and efficiency metrics baked in now, how you play is so much more important than it used to be. Needless to say, the game against UNC on Saturday is huge. A win would likely move Virginia back up close to where they were starting Monday as it would give the Hoos a fourth Q1 win. It would also put the them in a position where one more win probably seals the deal, although a loss to Georgia Tech in the finale would be badly damaging.
As we game this out, a close loss to UNC would probably keep Virginia in a similar spot (10 seed line), depending of course on other teams as well. A loss to Boston College would likely slide UVA down to the last 4 in. A close loss to Duke and a win over GT would probably leave Virginia as one of the last couple teams in or first couple teams out heading to the ACC Tournament, meaning there would be work to do. A blowout loss to Duke could mean the Hoos are most likely in the First Four out heading into the ACC Tournament. Wins over BC and Georgia Tech with losses to UNC and Duke would likely have Virginia 3/4/5 teams deep into the field heading to the ACC Tournament. Not exactly safe, but if the Wahoos avoid a bad loss, they would have a good chance to dance. A big weekend ahead!
Here’s the full bracketology for this update.
| Seed | Power | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Purdue* |
| 1 | 2 | Houston* |
| 1 | 3 | UConn* |
| 1 | 4 | Arizona* |
| 2 | 5 | North Carolina* |
| 2 | 6 | Tennessee |
| 2 | 7 | Marquette |
| 2 | 8 | Kansas |
| 3 | 9 | Alabama* |
| 3 | 10 | Iowa St. |
| 3 | 11 | Duke |
| 3 | 12 | Creighton |
| 4 | 13 | Baylor |
| 4 | 14 | San Diego St. |
| 4 | 15 | Auburn |
| 4 | 16 | Wisconsin |
| 5 | 17 | Illinois |
| 5 | 18 | Texas Tech |
| 5 | 19 | Clemson |
| 5 | 20 | BYU |
| 6 | 21 | Washington St. |
| 6 | 22 | Dayton |
| 6 | 23 | Utah St.* |
| 6 | 24 | Kentucky |
| 7 | 25 | Saint Mary's (CA)* |
| 7 | 26 | Colorado St. |
| 7 | 27 | Florida |
| 7 | 28 | South Carolina |
| 8 | 29 | Michigan St. |
| 8 | 30 | Oklahoma |
| 8 | 31 | Northwestern |
| 8 | 32 | Fla. Atlantic |
| 9 | 33 | Nebraska |
| 9 | 34 | Mississippi St. |
| 9 | 35 | New Mexico |
| 9 | 36 | Nevada |
| 10 | 37 | Boise St. |
| 10 | 38 | Virginia |
| 10 | 39 | TCU |
| 10 | 40 | Texas |
| 11a | 41 | Providence |
| 11a | 42 | Utah |
| 11 | 43 | Grand Canyon* |
| 11b | 44 | Wake Forest |
| 11b | 45 | Seton Hall |
| 11 | 46 | Indiana St.* |
| 12 | 47 | McNeese* |
| 12 | 48 | Richmond* |
| 12 | 49 | South Fla.* |
| 12 | 50 | App State* |
| 13 | 51 | Samford* |
| 13 | 52 | Yale* |
| 13 | 53 | UC Irvine* |
| 13 | 54 | Akron* |
| 14 | 55 | Louisiana Tech* |
| 14 | 56 | Vermont* |
| 14 | 57 | Charleston* |
| 14 | 58 | Oakland* |
| 15 | 59 | High Point* |
| 15 | 60 | Morehead St.* |
| 15 | 61 | Colgate* |
| 15 | 62 | Eastern Washington* |
| 16 | 63 | Quinnipiac* |
| 16 | 64 | Southern* |
| 16a | 65 | Norfolk St.* |
| 16a | 66 | South Dakota St.* |
| 16b | 67 | Eastern Kentucky* |
| 16b | 68 | Merrimack* |
- Last Four In: Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Utah, Providence
- First Four Out: Villanova, Ole Miss, Gonzaga, Butler
- Next Four Out: Texas A&M, Colorado, Oregon, Virginia Tech
When you look at the rest of the bracket, Dayton’s loss moves Richmond back in as an automatic qualifier and thus an at-large spot is lost. Both Richmond and South Florida take spots from at-large teams, if FAU and Dayton though end up winning the conference tournaments that would be two spots that the first two teams out would get. So Villanova and Ole Miss would be in if that happened. Bubble teams will be pulling hard for FAU and Dayton.
Speaking of the bubble, there are some big bubble games this weekend.
Duke @ Wake Forest. Wake Forest has one Q1 win over Florida at home so a win over Duke at home would give the Deacs a second and move them further into the field. A loss, as long as it isn’t a blowout, won’t kill them but if teams below them pick up big wins they could fall out.
UNC @ Virginia. Virginia probably needs to win one of their next 3 and GT at home to secure a bid. A win here would add a fourth Q1 win and put UVA in good shape.
Butler @ Seton Hall. This is a huge bubble game as Seton Hall is my last team in and Butler is my fourth team out. The winner will likely be in my field Monday, but the loser wont be.
Villanova @ UConn. Nova fell out of my bracket this time thanks to Richmond getting the A-10 AQ. But a win at UConn would likely put Nova in the field with some room to spare.
South Carolina @ Ole Miss. Ole Miss just doesn’t have a ton of quality wins. This would be a Q2 win and help Ole Miss’ resume. A loss would likely keep this team sliding further away from the field.
Texas A&M @ Tennessee. A win here would be a seventh Q1 win for A&M, which could help overcome the four Q3 losses. This is the opportunity for the Aggies to move the needle in a big way.
Mississippi State @ LSU. Mississippi State has improved its spot the last week or so, but a loss here in a tough road game, while only Q2, would increase the stress level. State has a tough closing stretch of Kentucky at home, on the road at Auburn, on the road at Texas A&M, and at home against South Carolina.
Utah @ Colorado. Another big bubble game. Colorado needs to string together wins to get in. Utah is the second team in and a loss, while Q1, would make the Utes vulnerable to fall out of the field.
Notes on my selection process:
- I don’t create matchups. My goal is to match the NCAA S Curve and select the right teams. Honestly the bracketing procedures are too tedious.
- Conference champions (* teams) in the pre-conference tournament brackets are picked by the team with the highest conference winning % at time of bracket creation. If there is a tie, the team with the highest NET is picked.
